wait? for what?
the missus to finally say "oh f_k this lets just get our own place"?
or maybe all that pent up demand comes to a head further worsening the "boom bust" cycle?
or maybe for their wage to grow some more?
it's a flawed argument.
Left wing political group orchestrating home buyers strike...
- Thread starter GoingDHfast
- Start date
wait? for what?
the missus to finally say "oh f_k this lets just get our own place"?
or maybe all that pent up demand comes to a head further worsening the "boom bust" cycle?
or maybe for their wage to grow some more?
it's a flawed argument.
Sounds like they will be helping to increase the upward pressure on rents.
Thanks
My thoughts exactly. While supply is limited we should in theory see the following:
Less people buying >> more people renting >> upwards pressure on rents >> stronger rental returns >> stronger investment in property >> prices go upwards.
And doesn't a whole heap of people "waiting to buy later" then just mean we are going to see an even greater demand when they all try to buy in xxx years?
Everyone needs somewhere to live.
Lifestyle reasons - and or for prices to fall. Each to their own, I guess. The trouble with property is it can sit stagnant for a number of years and then rise by 30-40% within a short period of time. I for one wouldn't like to be trying to time the market, particularly if I was a prospective first home buyer with no exposure to the market.
Just look at what happened to property in Melbourne in 2007 and then again in 2009-2010.....
supply is limited in sydney. thats about the only city wide market it is.
FHB Strike Campaign hits No. 1 Position on Get Up!
Did anybody else seen this?
http://suggest.getup.org.au/forums/...5687-first-home-buyers-property-buyers-strike
Apparently the people behind it, Get Up! have a history of campaigns to change government policy.
Since this campaign is ranked Number 1 on their list and has been voted for by thousands of Australians, what effect do we think this might have on the market?
FHBs leaving in droves could seriously dent any recovery in the housing market for a long time?
Scary thought...
Did anybody else seen this?
http://suggest.getup.org.au/forums/...5687-first-home-buyers-property-buyers-strike
Apparently the people behind it, Get Up! have a history of campaigns to change government policy.
Since this campaign is ranked Number 1 on their list and has been voted for by thousands of Australians, what effect do we think this might have on the market?
FHBs leaving in droves could seriously dent any recovery in the housing market for a long time?
Scary thought...
GetUp have a couple of these things running. A recent post here on SS linked to it, and I've been heading over periodically for a look. On the thread 'stop dirty rich buggers using negative gearing' (or something similar) someone dared to offer an alternative view, and got smacked pretty hard for it.
Frankly, the commentary on the FHB strike and the remove negative gearing campaigns are both pretty simplistic and miss a lot. Until such campaigns actually offer sensible commentary and alternatives, it will come to nothing.
I'm not losing any sleep. Besides, if people are going to stop buying houses then they'll have to rent them from people like me instead.
Frankly, the commentary on the FHB strike and the remove negative gearing campaigns are both pretty simplistic and miss a lot. Until such campaigns actually offer sensible commentary and alternatives, it will come to nothing.
I'm not losing any sleep. Besides, if people are going to stop buying houses then they'll have to rent them from people like me instead.
It must be tough to continue to be a perma-bear for years, when all the historic evidence shows house prices steadily going up with the odd flat spot or correction along the way.
It must be like thinking the sky is red, but it continues to keep on coming up blue every day - it'd do yer head eventually.
I would have though an economic student would be easily able to look up this and verify these facts and move on with a sensible outlook on the world of property world wide (current USA position notwithstanding
They must really love the short term corrections that occur; what do they do for the other 90% of the time?
it is not so much about a fall and not going up it is that they've gone up so quickly most people can't afford to buy a house.
Yeah. and that is different to presenting an alternative view here how exactly ?
Pretty simple.
RBA is retard
GFC over hyped, b.c no one understood resilience of aussies economy and awesomeness of kevin rudd.
interest rate too low.
there is the cause
now comes correcetion.
either inflation high, which is currently low,
so...
will there be a fall ?
The difference is that over here people will at least try to present a defendable argument.
There is still an element of playing the man rather than the ball, though.
I suspect there will be a fall, in the form of a stagnation lasting some time. It's unlikely for there to be sharp and widespread drops though.
Surprisingly the FHB Strike campaign's doing far better than that campaign to end negative gearing, but both have many votes, thousands!
The voter comments in both campaigns are predominantly bearish. There's huge anger in the community judging by the comments and the voting IMO.
What do you think, is this going to hit the mainsteam media next, I wouldn't be surprised to see it on TT or ACA. Will the politicians bow to public pressure and clamp down on property investors?
Just read those comments on both campaigns, scary scary stuff, this campaign will have far reaching consequences and I fear it won't be good for property at all!
Surprisingly the FHB Strike campaign's doing far better than that campaign to end negative gearing, but both have many votes, thousands!
The voter comments in both campaigns are predominantly bearish. There's huge anger in the community judging by the comments and the voting IMO.
What do you think, is this going to hit the mainsteam media next, I wouldn't be surprised to see it on TT or ACA. Will the politicians bow to public pressure and clamp down on property investors?
Just read those comments on both campaigns, scary scary stuff, this campaign will have far reaching consequences and I fear it won't be good for property at all!
Relax nocredit. GetUp is just a bunch of jealous lefties who want what they dont have and are sick of renting. Whether it is morally correct or not, there are dozens of reasons why the bubble will not collapse.
- No politician in her right mind would allow property prices to drop on her watch. There are too many vested interests, too many taxes relied upon and too many paid spruikers like Enzo who are very good at keeping prices moving higher.
- As soon as the price drop gets too large the government will suddenly sympathise with the poor first home buyers and reintroduce higher FHOG. Sad but true. This is the buy signal for investors trying to find capital gains IMO.
- If this does not work to reinflate the buble they will allow foreign interests (ie Chinese) to purchase here again.
- Lastly they could reduce interest rates but obviously a last resort.
Anyone doubting what I say just needs to research the overexposure of The Big Four Aussie banks to residential real estate. They are all valued among the top twenty banks worldwide yet at the same time have the highest exposure to Residential property of international banks....
Australians cant afford for these banks to fail.
all these debates back and forth will not be resolved in the short term. There are intelligent bears making an intelligent argument (some of them anyway) and there are intelligent bulls making an intelligent argument (some of them anyway).
For myself i am playing conservatively in the current market, i have never lost money overall during any investment cycle i invest in and i dont plan to start now.
(in the stock market one can incur losses on a specific stock, but its the total portfolio result that counts, and as for property i have never lost money in any property dealing).
Investing is like enduring the different seasons. Because of property's illiquidity i would be careful with this asset class at the moment. The degree of carefulness will depend on an individual's personal circumstances.
For myself i am playing conservatively in the current market, i have never lost money overall during any investment cycle i invest in and i dont plan to start now.
(in the stock market one can incur losses on a specific stock, but its the total portfolio result that counts, and as for property i have never lost money in any property dealing).
Investing is like enduring the different seasons. Because of property's illiquidity i would be careful with this asset class at the moment. The degree of carefulness will depend on an individual's personal circumstances.
1. This isn't an official GetUp campaign. It's just the most popular suggesting right now. It hasn't been accepted (as of yet). Others, such as mental health and same sex marriage have been accepted, but not this one.
2. There is no "down" vote, so polarizing issues can't be voted down by people who don't agree. Housing is a polarizing issue.
OK, on the other hand, a buyers strike would be very effective. But it's impossible to enforce. People will go form perma-bear to bull the minute they find a property they want to buy. It's prices that will create the strike (as FHB are priced out completely). Sour grapes, not internet forums is the only thing that can fuel a buyers strike. Still, there's plenty to go round
2. There is no "down" vote, so polarizing issues can't be voted down by people who don't agree. Housing is a polarizing issue.
OK, on the other hand, a buyers strike would be very effective. But it's impossible to enforce. People will go form perma-bear to bull the minute they find a property they want to buy. It's prices that will create the strike (as FHB are priced out completely). Sour grapes, not internet forums is the only thing that can fuel a buyers strike. Still, there's plenty to go round
I wonder how GetUp would feel if we started a campaign suggestion called "Investors buy in now to take advantage of the first home buyers strike".
Hmm...
Hmm...
I think the government is smart enough to workout that the last FHBB did not increase affordability. I would be surprised to see it reintroduced again in the short term (at least in the same format).
There would be public outrage at relaxing the FIRB laws again, this would be political suicide IMO.
As I understand it interest rates are subject to market conditions, there is no guarantee that RBA will be able to raise and lower them willy nilly as they see fit to stop a price correction.
The site is about getting people to rally around a cause, not having a debate over it. All official campaigns would be polarizing issues, there would be no reason for the campaign if that were not the case.
Surprisingly the FHB Strike campaign's doing far better than that campaign to end negative gearing, but both have many votes, thousands!
The voter comments in both campaigns are predominantly bearish. There's huge anger in the community judging by the comments and the voting IMO.
What do you think, is this going to hit the mainsteam media next, I wouldn't be surprised to see it on TT or ACA. Will the politicians bow to public pressure and clamp down on property investors?
Just read those comments on both campaigns, scary scary stuff, this campaign will have far reaching consequences and I fear it won't be good for property at all!
Wishful thinking I suspect.
I propose the following hypothetical...Young couple, potential first home buyers spend much of their time complaining about 'artificially high' property prices much like many generations before them. Despite this they regularly trawl RE.com, Domain and the like, dreaming about owning their first home.
Both are on decent incomes but cannot justify the lifestyle cost associated with purchasing their first home, suddenly that means less holidays, less shopping and a 30 year 'commitment' to a mortgage or heaven forbid moving from Coogee to *gasp* Summer Hill.
In an attempt to mask their fears about 'missing out', the guy decides to sign up to the first home buyers strike, he makes a pledge. Unfortunately his landlord does not make a pledge to not increase rents as the market dictates.
One day, another $50 pw rental increase arrives in the post or worse their landlord decides not to renew the lease so they can renovate and rent the place out to their University aged child.
If the opportunity to purchase at market value arose at this point, can you honestly see this dialogue occurring? Assuming of course that the couple were ever in a position to purchase anyway...(how many pledgers, don't even have enough saved for a deposit?)
"Honey, I am sick of rent increases, this 30% property drop you promised hasn't happened yet, let's just bite the bullet and buy something!" Girl
"Sweety, you know as well as I do that we have made a virtual pledge on an internet site and I fully intend on honouring that commitment until such a time that property prices are in line with the price/household income ratios of the mid- 80's" Guy
"Absolutely, I have allowed my vision to be clouded by sentiment, let's go to some open inspections for rental properties...I am sure there won't be much competition from other 'pledgers'" Girl
I agree.
However as I said above where it may have effect in on sentiment with sellers. If this gets press and their is market weakness whether percieved or actual market weakness coupled with speculation of the effect of a home buyers strike it could have a profound impact on those trying to sell but struggling.
If they think such a thing is in the wings they may push the button to sell rather then waiting.
But as far as buyers go, yes it is too serious a pledge to be realistic. Greed will win out in the end, and certainly if house prices fell to a level they saw as affordable they would buy. It is not like swearing off eating whalemeat or something that is easy or a minor inconvenience for most people to do.