Hmm interesting question, i haven't particularly noticed too much on higher LVR loans (although 95er investment loans are asking for trouble).
Few issues on APRA'S radar:
1. Non amortisation of loans - that is, people not paying down debt (interest only) and relying on capital growth and 'debt deflation'. This is unhealthy, as it relies on price growth. Hence I/O loans are a big issue, especially for PPORs.
2. Valuations, 'asset valuations', cash outs - Paul, i reckon your mate's spot on. Regulators would find it incredibly concerning if they see a spike in 'cash out' for investment use activity. Especially if its at higher LVRs. As a broker, over half of my loans this year have been from Sydney siders for this exact purpose. Putting my financial stability hat back on, i'd be very concerned about this and i suspect APRA would actively look at slowing it down later in the year.
3. Continued investor lending growth (up past 10%). Low interest rates just fuel this, so it seems part and parcel of the macroeconomic setting.
I'm not sure about higher loan to value ratio caps. Not sure what it'd do to any of the above 3. They introduced it in NZ (pretty sure an Senior RBA secondee from the RBA was instrumental in the design) because the risks emerging in their financial market were very different to Australia.
Pulling levers that APRA have available to them seems appropriate next steps. Given the nature of our banking system and competitive dynamics, i suspect most of this will happen 'behind the scenes' (brokers will know!), rather than ribbon worthy LVR caps that grab headlines.
APRAs got a bag of tricks that they can easily implement - lenders know this (and have been 'warned' in the December letter). They're not going to send them data that upsets them.
Cheers,
Redom