Melbourne suburbs property prices - 10 year data report

Great find there MPmelb.
Interesting to see the different cagr in different areas.
Horsham area had less than 100% increase in the last 10 years and in one suburb as low as 29% increase in 10 years.
I noticed that Balnarring beach 412% increase in the last 10 years.

would love to see something like this for Sydney
 
Stupid question, sorry...is the ''growth pa'' figure at the end based on simple interest or compound interest?

Thanks.
 
Cool bananas !
Thats' enough information to go over for quite a while !!
Good Stuff there .. interesting to compare suburbs that started with same initial price in 97 ... and way they ended up in 07
 
Thanks MpMelb,

I've saved a copy of the data. That is very useful information and it is interesting to see that some of the outer areas have increased by 10% p/a. Admittedly some inner areas have achieved 13% p/a.

Regards Jason.
 
Thanks MpMelb,

I've saved a copy of the data. That is very useful information and it is interesting to see that some of the outer areas have increased by 10% p/a. Admittedly some inner areas have achieved 13% p/a.

Regards Jason.

Does anyone know what the end $ difference is between a property bought for 350k that grows at 10% pa compounded for 10 years versus a property bought for 350k that grows at 13% pa compounded for 10 years?

It's about 280k...!

After 15 years it's 727k...!!

After 20 years it's 1678k...!!!

I think...?
 
Serviceabiliy is king

Does anyone know what the end $ difference is between a property bought for 350k that grows at 10% pa compounded for 10 years versus a property bought for 350k that grows at 13% pa compounded for 10 years?

It's about 280k...!

After 15 years it's 727k...!!

After 20 years it's 1678k...!!!

True on paper but an academic point since predicting future capital growth is a mugs' game. It's too speculative to me - there must be other factors that make a property purchase worthwhile.

About the best that can be expected is builiding a robust portfolio that will be successful under a wide range of economic conditions. Low growth/low yield is bad, but all the other combinations are good - provided they can be serviced.

Unless you earn a zillion dollars a year, serviceability is king.

Without it you'll be stuck at one property and/or may be foreced to sell it like 80% of IP investors.

Even if you could predict future growth, it's not even as easy as picking 10% versus 13% pa.

You need to think long-term - not just one property but multiple properties to get a sustainable $1-2m capital base as early as possible. From that point compounding in most years will grow wealth faster than your employer will pay you.

Good yields, value-adding potential and tax benefits are all part of the mix to improve serviceability, make the portfolio robust, maintain existing living standards and allow future acquisitions. Today's purchase must not materially jeopardise tomorrow's.

Two higher yielding $350k properties appreciating 10% pa will provide more wealth than having one low yielding $350k IP growing at 13%. 10% on $700k > 13% on $350k.
 
Unless you earn a zillion dollars a year, serviceability is king.

You make some valid points, but, I'm not so sure about this ''zillion dollar'' one...

Could there be a certain combined (eg. husband + wife) gross income...above which pursuing a more 'growth-biased' IP buying strategy becomes more advantageous (after weighing up risks vs. benefits) than a more 'yield-biased' IP buying strategy?

100k, 150k, 200k, 250k, 300k, 400k, 500k...?

What do you think?
 
Does anyone know what the end $ difference is between a property bought for 350k that grows at 10% pa compounded for 10 years versus a property bought for 350k that grows at 13% pa compounded for 10 years?

It's about 280k...!

After 15 years it's 727k...!!

After 20 years it's 1678k...!!!

I think...?

In many investment books that I have read, similar illustrations to the one above are given by the author. Buce Davis in his book 'How to Build Riches' gives one such example. Davis points out that you receive a much better return by buying well located real estate in blue chip locations. Davis also mentioned that most property investors become wealthy by buying higher end real estate in blue chip locations. Furthermore he wrote that having fewer blue chip properties was preferable to having multiple properties in secondary locations.

Essentially this is true, but many investors begin their portfolio by buying a property they can afford to service, and many times this is not in a blue chip suburb.
 
You make some valid points, but, I'm not so sure about this ''zillion dollar'' one...

Could there be a certain combined (eg. husband + wife) gross income...above which pursuing a more 'growth-biased' IP buying strategy becomes more advantageous (after weighing up risks vs. benefits) than a more 'yield-biased' IP buying strategy?

Yes.

Regardless of the returns of the investment, a high-saving middle-income household able to generously subsidise their portfolio by (say) $20k pa simply cannot service more than one $400k IP returning 4% yield assuming 100% LVR, even assuming generous tax deductions.

Eventually they will be able to buy another (after interest rates fall, rents rise or they manage to save more) but this will be several years away at least and is a severe brake on expansion. Until that high negative cashflow is stemmed, the 'strategy' for your average investor is just to hold on to their one property because that's all they can service. In some ways the second property will be harder to service than the first because the buyer will have run out of deductions because their taxable income is now so low!

High earners who are careful with their money can afford the big shortfall. So they can go and buy 2 or 3 properties and build their portfolio quicker. There's a massive shortfall but the effort is a little easier due to their tax status. So instead of running out of tax on their 2nd property, they might still have a liveable taxable income on their 3rd of 4th. Still massive outgoings, but if you're happy to fork out (say) 5% of your portfolio's value each year and will bet that appreciation will exceed that. Provided the payments can be met, and assuming 10-13% growth, then it's a lucrative strategy for higher income earners.

However people on this forum are quite unrepresentative of the population generally. Many here think nothing of a $200k pa income, whereas in broader society such high income is rare (refer ABS stats). For 'ordinary people' then $200k pa income might as well be a zillion dollars and is about as attainable.

$200k earners undoubtedly exist (in their hundred thousands though not millions). As spruiker fodder they're sizeable, influential, profitable and worth talking about (and to). But ask them whether they're willing to spare (say) $50k pa to prop up a $1m 'high growth' portfolio and I reckon the hands still up would nearly all come down.

So we've got a minority of a minority. For these people a heavily growth-based approach may work. It may also work for some others (and has certainly worked in the past). But the keys are risk and serviceability, and too many otherwise respected commentators give too little weight to these.
 
High earners who are careful with their money can afford the big shortfall. So they can go and buy 2 or 3 properties and build their portfolio quicker. There's a massive shortfall but the effort is a little easier due to their tax status. So instead of running out of tax on their 2nd property, they might still have a liveable taxable income on their 3rd of 4th. Still massive outgoings, but if you're happy to fork out (say) 5% of your portfolio's value each year and will bet that appreciation will exceed that. Provided the payments can be met, and assuming 10-13% growth, then it's a lucrative strategy for higher income earners.

Yes, I agree with this...and above 200k seems to be a reasonable alternative to ''zillion dollars''.

The nature of the resi. property asset class makes it more advantageous for this group of people...if they have the sense to utilise it.

But the keys are risk and serviceability, and too many otherwise respected commentators give too little weight to these.

Yes, we agree here too, pity, I was hoping for an argument.
 
But the keys are risk and serviceability, and too many otherwise respected commentators give too little weight to these.

This is certainly true. Many commentators, authors etc are only presenting the 'best case' scenario when they encourage a negatively geared approach into blue chip property.

They don't mention the many risks associated with holding a negatively geared high growth portfolio including job loss, needing to stop work due to illness or time out to have children, possible changes to the tax laws etc. Nor do they necessarily give out many ideas on how to convert a high growth portfolio into an income generating portfolio! The later is necessary to become financially independent.
 
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