Moving from NYC to Canberra, where to buy?
- Thread starter Andynyc
- Start date
Thanks
Thanks all, I have a lot to think about. New York is a very grinding place and chock full of extremely unhappy peopple. Great when you are single but awful when you have little ones. So far I am living rent free in Yass and like it very much and am just getting ready to explore the city.
I am open to a new estate but as mentioned before after living in an apartment and hearing my landlord snore I want some space from my neighbors.
What are the pundits thinking around the best value and growth in Canberra over the next 5 years? Is it steady state due to the new developments.
So far I love the place and its wonderful to be back home.
Thanks all, I have a lot to think about. New York is a very grinding place and chock full of extremely unhappy peopple. Great when you are single but awful when you have little ones. So far I am living rent free in Yass and like it very much and am just getting ready to explore the city.
I am open to a new estate but as mentioned before after living in an apartment and hearing my landlord snore I want some space from my neighbors.
What are the pundits thinking around the best value and growth in Canberra over the next 5 years? Is it steady state due to the new developments.
So far I love the place and its wonderful to be back home.
Hi Andynyc - definitely love Canberra too. I moved from Sydney a few years ago and now spend my time between the two cities. I would move back to Sydney permanently - but my partner and I love it here.
Regarding Canberra as an investment destination - i think i may be a little more skeptical. Personally, i think what i've heard from most people involved in the market is biased BS - so be careful who you speak to. 'Bottom of the cycle' they'll tell you - the real estate agents, the brokers, everyone with a vested interest. 'Now's the time to buy' is what you'll hear. 'Great deals', etc etc.
Regarding the macro pundits - the main view is that it will basically say itll be flat for an extended period of time.
I've spent ardous amounts of time talking to Canberra long timers - they say its part of the cycle and they say this when the last Government came in. They always point to the 'demand' side of the equation.
If i were a buyer, I'd forget about the demand side altogether (we're probably at the bottom when you only consider demand, employment should improve over the years) - the risk is all on the supply side.
Canberra is oversupplied now (just ask someone about how much they had to drop their rent by).
However, it will be drastically oversupplied within 24 months. It may be difficult to get an appreciation of this, but i'd spend some time driving around key localities (City/Braddon, Inner South, Woden, Belco, Gungahlin and Tuggers). You'll see buildings going up everywhere - its nuts. Then go out for a drive in the new areas, its also crazy (the typical First Home Owners Market).
FYI - i'd spend time reading BISShrapnels granular work. They use simple building approval numbers to get the 'supply side' of the story in every state, including Canberra - and compare it to demand. The numbers arent pretty. An oversupply issue that grows year on year for the next 3 years. This will all need to be 'soaked up', and economics101 tells you that prices will adjust to reflect this. There'll be friction in any adjustment, ppl in Cbr arent very leveraged and can hold onto their stock.
The effect on yields has been significant so far (the forums have some insight on this) - but this is before most of the new stock has come online. In 24 months, most of it will be there.
Narrow in on areas where supply isn't outgrowing demand - but consider the correlation between areas. For example, Turner may not be oversupplied, but its right next to Braddon - so the effect will translate over to the other side of Northbourne.
Personally, i'd sit pretty and enjoy being a renter. Wait until the supply comes online and then use your best bargaining tool - competition. I've watched prices fall 20-30k in my building over the last 6 months. Theres still next to no one attending the open homes. There's about another 10 developments that will come online within walking distance.
Good luck! P.s. if your talking to Jamie, you're in good hands!
Cheers,
Redom
in terms of lifestyle (and depending on where you will be working) I'd go inner south. I live (usually) in Narrabundah and I love it. but if I had the money, I'd live in Griffith or a house in Forrest. Access to the best govvo schools (which are the best in Canberra). Forrest Primary, Telopea Park high school (primary too, if your kids speak french, mind went there) and Narrabundah college. Close to everything, beautiful parks and sporting opportunities. Yarralumla too, Forrestry park is amazing. I grew up in Canberra, lived everywhere but these areas are my favourite. Canberra is such hidden gem, everyone outside hates it as they think it's just lollies - but they all come from someplace else. I wouldn't go to the new areas, too small land wise, and far away in terms of 'berra transit (although there are some lovely older suburbs further out). Anyway, good luck and welcome home
in terms of lifestyle (and depending on where you will be working) I'd go inner south. I live (usually) in Narrabundah and I love it. but if I had the money, I'd live in Griffith or a house in Forrest. Access to the best govvo schools (which are the best in Canberra). Forrest Primary, Telopea Park high school (primary too, if your kids speak french, mind went there) and Narrabundah college. Close to everything, beautiful parks and sporting opportunities. Yarralumla too, Forrestry park is amazing. I grew up in Canberra, lived everywhere but these areas are my favourite. Canberra is such hidden gem, everyone outside hates it as they think it's just lollies - but they all come from someplace else. I wouldn't go to the new areas, too small land wise, and far away in terms of 'berra transit (although there are some lovely older suburbs further out). Anyway, good luck and welcome home
Apparantely the best place in the world to live?! I agree (despite my concerns around the housing market) - hidden gem.
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Hmm definitely apartments and probably townhouses.
I'd have no idea about houses to be honest.
Yep - that's where I see the oversupply.
If you check out the newer estates on allhomes you'll see see there's an abundance of stock.
If you check the listing in some of the more established areas with detached homes on good sized blocks - there's less supply and the demand still seems to be there (from what I can see anyway).
Cheers
Jamie
Hi Andynyc - definitely love Canberra too. I moved from Sydney a few years ago and now spend my time between the two cities. I would move back to Sydney permanently - but my partner and I love it here.
Regarding Canberra as an investment destination - i think i may be a little more skeptical. Personally, i think what i've heard from most people involved in the market is biased BS - so be careful who you speak to. 'Bottom of the cycle' they'll tell you - the real estate agents, the brokers, everyone with a vested interest. 'Now's the time to buy' is what you'll hear. 'Great deals', etc etc.
Regarding the macro pundits - the main view is that it will basically say itll be flat for an extended period of time.
I've spent ardous amounts of time talking to Canberra long timers - they say its part of the cycle and they say this when the last Government came in. They always point to the 'demand' side of the equation.
If i were a buyer, I'd forget about the demand side altogether (we're probably at the bottom when you only consider demand, employment should improve over the years) - the risk is all on the supply side.
Canberra is oversupplied now (just ask someone about how much they had to drop their rent by).
However, it will be drastically oversupplied within 24 months. It may be difficult to get an appreciation of this, but i'd spend some time driving around key localities (City/Braddon, Inner South, Woden, Belco, Gungahlin and Tuggers). You'll see buildings going up everywhere - its nuts. Then go out for a drive in the new areas, its also crazy (the typical First Home Owners Market).
FYI - i'd spend time reading BISShrapnels granular work. They use simple building approval numbers to get the 'supply side' of the story in every state, including Canberra - and compare it to demand. The numbers arent pretty. An oversupply issue that grows year on year for the next 3 years. This will all need to be 'soaked up', and economics101 tells you that prices will adjust to reflect this. There'll be friction in any adjustment, ppl in Cbr arent very leveraged and can hold onto their stock.
The effect on yields has been significant so far (the forums have some insight on this) - but this is before most of the new stock has come online. In 24 months, most of it will be there.
Narrow in on areas where supply isn't outgrowing demand - but consider the correlation between areas. For example, Turner may not be oversupplied, but its right next to Braddon - so the effect will translate over to the other side of Northbourne.
Personally, i'd sit pretty and enjoy being a renter. Wait until the supply comes online and then use your best bargaining tool - competition. I've watched prices fall 20-30k in my building over the last 6 months. Theres still next to no one attending the open homes. There's about another 10 developments that will come online within walking distance.
Good luck! P.s. if your talking to Jamie, you're in good hands!
Cheers,
Redom
Great post. Realistic assessment of whats happening in my view. I sometimes wonder how it will all play out, it does look increasingly alarming and doesn't make too much sense.
Andy, i bought an apartment recently OTP in Cbr. Got a great discount of the market price (~10%) - which i'm told is unusual for OTP stock. If you're looking at new stock, don't be afriad to throw in lowball offers.
Right now, i think any offer is a good offer. There is so much marketing gimic around by everyone involved, and emotional bias from locals - so i'd second Redom's words on being careful and researching widely.
September: $30 drop to $350 for a 1 bed, 1 bath, 1 garage townhouse - less than 2 years old - right by Belconnen.
No drop yet, but I bought a big block in Downer (near Jamie ) and allow pets. I wouldn't buy an apartment, even at an insane discount, buy a big block in the inner areas and live in it for a while.
) and allow pets. I wouldn't buy an apartment, even at an insane discount, buy a big block in the inner areas and live in it for a while.No drop yet, but I bought a big block in Downer (near Jamie
Good to hear Jaggannath!
I rekon this type of stock should be fine in those established areas - liveability factor is pretty awesome and it doesnt really compete with the apartment stock that is coming online.
No drop yet, but I bought a big block in Downer (near Jamie
Good work - it's the place to be
Cheers
Jamie
We purchased our PPOR near the centre of Belco in July last year and it was recently valued for 16% more than what we paid
With no renovations/improvements? Amazing result!
Hi Jamie,
Just had a spiel from an agent about the Fluffys and it sounds plausible (dangerous I know
).Essentially, the buyback will create 1000+ households looking to move. They've had to move out of their 1950-70's homes and many will be using their "windfall" to buy in the same area/suburb as they already are in (for schooling, work, etc) and won't be waiting for a future buyback of their cleared block.
Their houses are mostly family ones rather than penthouses or shacks (limited by the type of buyers of the insulation back in the 70's+).
So, for a while at least, there will be a whole stack of new buyers in established suburbs - 100 in Kambah, 43 in Curtin, etc. These buyers, if they stay in the area, will be competing with the usual churn.
So there will be a) fewer houses as the fluffy's are off the market for a few years until torn down, and b) more buyers as the locals want to stay local.
In a few years, the opposite will be true - like after the fires in Duffy et al., there will be empty blocks galore in inner leafy suburbs as the cleared lands re-enters the market, and this is likely to drive prices down for a while.
Now, all that sounds plausible... have you heard anything like this?
Hi Jamie,
Just had a spiel from an agent about the Fluffys and it sounds plausible (dangerous I know
Essentially, the buyback will create 1000+ households looking to move. They've had to move out of their 1950-70's homes and many will be using their "windfall" to buy in the same area/suburb as they already are in (for schooling, work, etc) and won't be waiting for a future buyback of their cleared block.
Their houses are mostly family ones rather than penthouses or shacks (limited by the type of buyers of the insulation back in the 70's+).
So, for a while at least, there will be a whole stack of new buyers in established suburbs - 100 in Kambah, 43 in Curtin, etc. These buyers, if they stay in the area, will be competing with the usual churn.
So there will be a) fewer houses as the fluffy's are off the market for a few years until torn down, and b) more buyers as the locals want to stay local.
In a few years, the opposite will be true - like after the fires in Duffy et al., there will be empty blocks galore in inner leafy suburbs as the cleared lands re-enters the market, and this is likely to drive prices down for a while.
Now, all that sounds plausible... have you heard anything like this?
This actually does sound plausible (depending on the type of dwelling they'd be looking for). Do you have more info on the buyback arrangement?
Cheers,
Redom
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act...ners-sign-up-for-buyback-20141116-11n3bz.html
Sitting down with some clients with one of these homes this week to look into options.
Cheers
Jamie
Thanks Jamie. Do you know what they plan on doing with the homes?
