Navra & Spann Funds

[MichaelW]

I've yet to see any fund outperform what I can achieve independently and know a number of others who find the same thing. It's really about how well you understand what you're investing in and your level of commitment to hands on investing.

Acey,

Good point. I know I could do OK by coming up with my own stock picks but have decided at this stage to go with fund managers due to the size of the investment. I need the diversity that a managed fund gives me. I'm also leveraged into my fund (soon to be funds) and am not sure how I'd go about doing this for direct investment into a myriad of stocks.

Ultimately I'd like to take complete charge of my own destiny but will transition there over a period of time once I'm confident I have developed an appropriate trading strategy.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[Simon]

I've yet to see any fund outperform what I can achieve independently and know a number of others who find the same thing. It's really about how well you understand what you're investing in and your level of commitment to hands on investing.
Aceyducey

Not being blessed with Acey's intelligence and ability I have decided to hand much of my share money over to three different fund managers to run for me. I am happy with that decision.

Cheers,

 

[MichaelW]

Not being blessed with Acey's intelligence and ability I have decided to hand much of my share money over to three different fund managers to run for me. I am happy with that decision.

Cheers,

Simon,

Care to enlighten us as to which three? As a man currently looking to diversify, I welcome the suggestions of other seasoned investors I hold in high regard.

And your opinion would be OK too... (Couldn't resist, sorry )

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[Simon]

Simon,

Care to enlighten us as to which three? As a man currently looking to diversify, I welcome the suggestions of other seasoned investors I hold in high regard.

And your opinion would be OK too... (Couldn't resist, sorry )

Cheers,
Michael.

Sums me up pretty well I think - Jack of al ltrades and master of none

Well you know I hold the Navra units. As well as this I have two funds in the CFS family (Future Leaders and Imputation Fund) and Platinum International to give me some OS exposure.

but don't blindly follow me.

 

[thefirstbruce]

Michael, I too have taken the hint from the senior members on the forum re going local....

I'd include Brenda, Monopoly, Kristine, and Dunc and others, as members who've highlighted the power of a local focus. Being in the right place at the right time just seems easier when that place is 10 minutes away and you drive past every day; rather then a 1 hour flight away where you know nothing about the local council goings on etc. However, the exception would be the next boom's ripple effect, when/if it happens.

I think time efficient investing practices become all the more important once you get past 30, and your time becomes a more precious resource than a loose $20k.

Interestingly, I am currently tracking a house across the road from where I grew up. I knew all the owners over a 30 year period, but not the current ones. I know they aren't in a hurry to sell, yet. Been a year already. I also know the whole opposite side of the street to this house (incl. my parent's old house), has been rezoned Res B, and will most likely become townhouses. And the street at the end of this street is being widened to 4 lanes, and a concrete median strip inserted so that a handy right hand turn is impossible. That can only serve to devalue the house I am tracking, and effects the value I put on it. Would be hard for me to know all this if I was tracking across town.

 

[Grego]

Originally I asked the question, becaused I thought these fund managers may have held some secret formula or they were different to others in what they did or how they did it

Grego - I think that is a limiting belief on your part.

How about looking at the end result and determining whether the track record of a fund manager is better or worse than the performance you can achieve yourself.

I don't beleive they are worth the couple of % for what they do. They managed to lose half my super during the tech wreck (fortunately it was only a small amount) However this means it has to increase by 100% just to return to where it was prior to the Tech wreck. and for that they take money from me! I don't think so.

I've yet to see any fund outperform what I can achieve independently and know a number of others who find the same thing. It's really about how well you understand what you're investing in and your level of commitment to hands on investing

While I wouldn't claimed to be quite as confident as AceD in claiming that I could outperform "any fund" There are several that make ridiculously short term gains, I personally trade stocks directly and pretty much have returns substantially better than the ASX 300/200 have performed since the middle of 2005, give me another six months to prove to myself that the stock "system picking" is working I will leverage as well.

Michael thanks for the spreadsheet and good luck with the funds you invest in.
I noticed you said you may at some stage like to take hold and trade your self.
I beleive you could do a lot worse than reading the following posts and having a look at the system that has been traded here http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=forum;f=74 There is a results page showing a full spreadsheet of trades and the returns acheived over the last 2.5 to 3 yrs. It is the system ( i hate using that word "system" as it sounds like a black box or horse picking)
myself and approx 15 or so others are trading at atm with similar results.

Thank you for all your responses it gives me more confidence to pcontinue to proceed down the direct share trading road and leave the fund nmanagers alone

Cheers Greg

 

[The Y-man]

I've yet to see any fund outperform what I can achieve independently ............. It's really about how well you understand what you're investing in and your level of commitment to hands on investing.

Interesting - that's almost word for word what Peter Spann said at his Melbourne presentation last weekend.

He figured that at this point in time, he would rather have more time than the few extra points of performance.

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[Simon]

Thank you for all your responses it gives me more confidence to pcontinue to proceed down the direct share trading road and leave the fund nmanagers alone

Cheers Greg

Good luck to you mate. I have no doubt, that with your atitude, you will be a success.

 

[see_change]

While I wouldn't claimed to be quite as confident as AceD in claiming that I could outperform "any fund" There are several that make ridiculously short term gains, I personally trade stocks directly and pretty much have returns substantially better than the ASX 300/200 have performed since the middle of 2005, give me another six months to prove to myself that the stock "system picking" is working I will leverage as well.

I beleive you could do a lot worse than reading the following posts and having a look at the system that has been traded here http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=forum;f=74 There is a results page showing a full spreadsheet of trades and the returns acheived over the last 2.5 to 3 yrs. It is the system ( i hate using that word "system" as it sounds like a black box or horse picking)
myself and approx 15 or so others are trading at atm with similar results.

Grego , outside techtrader , there are also a group of people who are trading systems which are based on Bollinger band breakouts as a trigger . People have developed their own systems using other filters on top of this , eg increasing volume, RSI , new high etc. Stevo ( on reefcap as well ) has posted about this in the past and I think he and OPM originally suggested this as an idea about three years ago , though I was interested to note that at one of the presenters at a share Expo was talking about this about a year ago.

I know Stevo has been averaging over 30 % , though as he says , it's been the right type of market for that type of system .

I started using this in dec 2004 and got creamed in the first few month ( On back testing I can't find a worse time to start...) but with some variations to the system am now going very nicely . I'm looking to increase the amount I'm investing , but will probably also look at investing some money in managed funds, though I'm thinking that the place to do this will be in overseas funds , where for fundamental reasons I believe that particular market will outperform Australia. ( havn't worked out my bench marks for deciding when that will be yet ...)

See Change

 

[MichaelW]

Sums me up pretty well I think - Jack of al ltrades and master of none

Well you know I hold the Navra units. As well as this I have two funds in the CFS family (Future Leaders and Imputation Fund) and Platinum International to give me some OS exposure.

but don't blindly follow me.

Simon,

Sounds similar to what I'm considering currently. I like the Platinum funds and was thinking of choosing Platinum Asia for my O/S exposure. I just think Asia has legs for the next couple of years. I'll probably continue to hold 1/3 in Navra for the time being, and was even considering CFS for my other Aus exposure. Either them or a tracker / LIC.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

[Grego]

Grego , outside techtrader , there are also a group of people who are trading systems which are based on Bollinger band breakouts as a trigger . People have developed their own systems using other filters on top of this , eg increasing volume, RSI , new high etc.

Hi SC
I've spent years reading all the books by Guppy etc etc trying to follow their methods. I always seemed to get side tracked with business or Property along the way I even paper traded options for a while. Yes I know it's not the same as the real thing however I did alright for a while. Mainly using Guppys multiple MAs and also RSI etc. I guess the bollinger bands have been something I have not really been able to use with any degree of success. Mainly due to my limited understanding & time constraints.

With me it seems to one forum or the other. If i'm in property mode ie: looking to buy, I spend my time here learning. When I am not in the property market I spend a hell of a lot more time over at REEF C. I guess at the time I discovered Techs method It was just the right time for me and fortunately it has worked well . I am up around 24-25% since 1 Aug 05 which I am happy with as it includes a drawback last Oct when the market had a small correction.
There is also The Dividend Trading system by Don W that I am interested in
However finding the time to trial all these wonderful methods by the generous people seems beyond me.

I know Stevo has been averaging over 30 % , though as he says , it's been the right type of market for that type of system .

I am pretty sure Tech feels the same way about his system , but I think
( but don't quote me) he is looking into tweaking it or finding away for the method to work on shorting stocks when we reach uor next bear market

Unfortunately I don't have the software to back test systems, I use metastock to run Techtrader but fortunately all I had to do was cut & paste the system into MS as I do not know the programming side of it.

Glad to hear you are doing well. Is it a long term trading system like Techs?

I'm looking to increase the amount I'm investing , but will probably also look at investing some money in managed funds, though I'm thinking that the place to do this will be in overseas funds , where for fundamental reasons I believe that particular market will outperform Australia. ( havn't worked out my bench marks for deciding when that will be yet ...)

Are you basing your decisions on these fund purchases on Fundemental anaylsis? or something more esoteric? I guess I feel more comfortable with TA side of shares & probably that contrbutes to my lack of confidence in managed funds

Cheers
Greg

 

[see_change]

Hi SC

Unfortunately I don't have the software to back test systems, I use metastock to run Techtrader but fortunately all I had to do was cut & paste the system into MS as I do not know the programming side of it.

Glad to hear you are doing well. Is it a long term trading system like Techs?

Are you basing your decisions on these fund purchases on Fundemental anaylsis? or something more esoteric? I guess I feel more comfortable with TA side of shares & probably that contrbutes to my lack of confidence in managed funds

Cheers
Greg

It is a long term system , but not as long term as techs appears to be .

I have amibroker, and it was a pain to learn how to use, but I've got a basic understtnading of how to use it now, and there is a good group of guys to help on Reeefcap esp Stevo and Kaveman ( who now runs a service programming what you want )

My system(s ) give me more trades than I can take , so I'm checking out the fundamentals to the point where I won't buy companies that are purely speculative, ie they don't make money at the moment , or are heavily in debt or have reeediculous PE ratios of 100 etc.

I've also started finessing the entries , so I'm avoiding a lot of the 5-10 % losses that I was picking up over short term periods. Those were a major source of losses , and at the moment I seem to have knocked those right down. I'd like to try and code in what I'm doing , but at the moment I havn't got the time to do it.

Basically I'm watching the shares when they have their initially break out rather than buying on the next open. The majority of shares that go on to do well , will have a pull back , form a short period of consolidation and then I'm buying at the bottom of that consolidation , rather on the initial breakout . I usually have several shares to choose from at one time so I don't have to buy every one. So far I havn't missed any big moves, but I've missed out on several shares that have triggered one week and then pulled straight back and broken their stop , and I'm also buying ( on average ) a few percent below the initial open after the inital trigger. Seems to have made a difference at the moment , though time will tell.

See Change

 

[House_Keeper]

Just remember too, that any fund compared to the all ords would need to be compared to the all ords accumulation index [that's including dividends], if the fund performance is including distributions.

I suppose that would add 4% or so to the all ords performance.

See ya's.

Are you sure about this?

I was under the impression that the published All Ords index includes the dividends.

I haven't noticed the index falling on ex-dividend days due to dividends payments.

Cheers,

 

[Grego]

SC

Sounds like you are on the right track with what you are doing,Good luck

Greg

 

[kissfan]

I like the Platinum funds and was thinking of choosing Platinum Asia for my O/S exposure. I'll probably continue to hold 1/3 in Navra for the time being

Hi ya Michael.

Just wondering if you've considered Steve Navras' American fund for your O/S exposure (not sure if it is off the ground yet, but if it isn't, I don't think it is too far away).

Definately not advice, as I know very little re shares/managed funds etc, still trying to learn that.

Regards
Marty

 

[topcropper]

Are you sure about this?

I was under the impression that the published All Ords index includes the dividends.

I haven't noticed the index falling on ex-dividend days due to dividends payments.

Cheers,

Yep, the index drops when companies go ex div. If say a big cap, big yield stock like NAB or CBA go ex div, the drop is substantial.

I've been trying to google up the all ords accumulation index as a chart, but can't seem to find it anywhere. I suspect that the information is available through subscriber sites. Not for free though.

There was a great chart of the all ords verses all ords accumulation index on this site last year, but it's been updated,.....

http://www.ampcapital.com.au/ampfp/_pdf/orderbrochures/InvestmentToolkitPresentation.pdf?DIRECT

Not there anymore.

I also have the chart from a subscriber/pay site, so I can't post it here. Here is some figures from some key dates,...

Jan 1985, 20 000
Oct 1987, 62 000
Nov 1987, 37 000
Jul 1997, 115 000
Mar 2000, 150 000
Mar 2003, 142 000
Mar 2006, 284 000

See ya's.

 

[geoffw]

I haven't noticed the index falling on ex-dividend days due to dividends payments.

That's because the index has a lot of stocks, and only a few will go ex on a given day. You will see it if you look at the prices of individual stocks, not on the whole index.

 

[Andrew_A]

That's because the index has a lot of stocks, and only a few will go ex on a given day. You will see it if you look at the prices of individual stocks, not on the whole index.

In February the SPI futures contract was trading at a discount to the cash index, usually it trades at a premium.

This was due to BHP and a number of large cap stocks going ExDiv in Feb. The dividend effect of a few of the ASX's bigger stocks is substantial and the market does get pushed because of it.

The difference due to compounding between the XJO and the accumulation index performance over time is substantial.

 

[Andrew_A]

Arbitrary measure

An example of what a difference dividends can make to performance.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Source: Jim Puplava (Financial Sense Newshour)

1$ US invested in the market
1900: $1
2000: $198 = 5.4%/pa compounding

1$ US invested with dividends reinvested
1900: $1
2000: $16,797 = 10.1%/pa compounding.

It's probably better to ask if a fund is likely to meet your investment criteria rather than worrying how it ranks against an index however.
[/FONT]

 

[Panic]

Back to diversification. Although I think that reasonable diversification can greatly reduce risk (as that is what its supposed to do), over diversification is actualy not optimal. That is why I dont invest in funds. I want my money more concentrated on the prize ( similar to what Acey is saying). I have to say that my picks are outperforming the majority of funds and the sp200.
Anyway just wanted to say that too much diversification is not always good.
As Buffet would say "if you are sure about your picks, why invest in something else?"

Thanks
Panic