Needing you opinion on whether I should Buy Now or Later.

Needing your opinion on whether I should Buy Now or Later.

Hello All

Needing your opinion on whether I should Buy Now or Later.

Background

Mrs 147 and I love our PPOR but a change in our circumstances will make it too small. We have two bed, minor yard, fully reno, no parking terrace. No debt, we own the lot.

Would like 3 bed + office for my business with separate access, car parking for one, yard and room for a bath (We only have shower).

These are rare in Inner City unless you have $1M+ to burn.

What We Found by Chance

Knowing the market is going south I am not looking but, unplanned, we inspected a terrace in Redfern (the good bit) with front and rear access, able to accommodate car park, plus yard. 5.0m wide x 30m deep in a leafy street. (that is very big here). Excellent location accepting your neighbours are brothels.

IMO Structurally very good. A little drummy but been painted, keep simple and looked after. Good bones, no cracks, floor solid, (I jumped up and down a bit) etc… Timber looks well cared for.

5.0m wide (that is big here). Being used as offices (mixed use zoning) so entry hall with living, dining with small kitchenette off the dining. Two beds above 5 x 3.8 and 3.1 x 4.0m each with 5 m wide balcony. Very small bathroom on ground. Rent for $400 week due to bathrooms. Solid brick staircase to rear yard.

Bonus is self contained lower ground flat accessed from rear and or internal staircase. Two rooms with laundry and small but workable kitchen, some damp but a decent fan system would fix that. Rent for $250 week. Sliding door to rear yard.

Rear yard has 5 x 8 m deck with access via door to lane. Mature palms and trees but palms would go to provide carpark. Still leave you with 9m yard.

Now, for those not use to inner city living this may seem small but it is actually huge. Asking $800ish k. In summary a property with great potential as investment and/or future PPOR with IP below. Will allow growth as PPOR or if we move out can always be a very much dual IP investment in the high end.

My Dilemma :confused:

If this was the bottom of the market I would be all over it. But IMO with a least one more rate rise to come my IP brain says pass but my PPOR heart and brain says these are rare and it has the right bones, layout, and location. So there is opportunity lost if I pass.

What We Would do if We Bought ;)

By now and rent it out while we rework upstairs. Assume purchase outlay $875and rent is $650 week net we need be NG $570 week so after tax $295 a week plus $1k land tax every year. This is ok we can do that. Also assume works is say $100k but we find from cashflow being in the building game.

Essentially we are buying for a future PPOR in 2 to 5 years time. We would move in to top terrace and rent out the flat and sell our present PPOR to family trust. In this scenarios we are NG say $133 or net $70 a week with no land tax as prop would be PPOR.

But to move would mean PPOR goes to FT and cost say $220 week to hold. We could off course sell clear the PPOR and not hold another property but it is in excellent condition and location. I guess that decision would be based on our Cashflow.

In summary, assume I sell, PPOR & Flat it will cost $70 a week assuming rents don’t go up which they may.

Pros :)

The area is very good and only getting better. Always be prime RE especially with the parking which is the limiting factor to growth of the high end PPOR market here. Options to rent out or keep as PPOR.

Lower floor unit a nice earner and future parent’s accommodation when they get old and frail, or massive office for my business I decide to grow it more. Hence opportunities for business to subsidise rent etc….

Rents should go up helping the equation.

We are getting the dream PPOR with room downstairs to expand into when the rent does not offset the amenity of using it anymore. Will only go up in the long term being Inner City.

Cons :(

IMO end 2005 will be the bottom with flat for two years and then a rise. This makes no sense investment wise to NG with market going south or flat!

What if market really crashes?? What if it hard to rent? What if we change and move out of Sydney?? What if we hit a recession?

Should I simply sit on my hands and wait for the next bargain in one to two years time?

What do you think??? :confused:

I note this is decision of heart over head so go for it. I post with flame proof suit on. I encourage vigorous debate.

Regards, Peter 147
 
Last edited:
Pete147
Its clear from your use of words, you are very emotional about this one, understandable given it will be a future and possibly long term PPOR.

Suggest do a bit more research into the negatives you mentioned ( rental vacancies / realistic rate achievable ). Risk of buying and then selling in a few years as your plans change etc

Its clear you know how to "crunch the numbers" on this, just do some "worse case scenarios" as well and see how they stack up.........let these be your guide, not your heart.
 
G'day Peter,

Any chance that the "other street access" will allow you to rent car parking spaces for locals who don't have them. Might cost as little as a decent fence and a couple of floodlights worked off a sensor. Could you pull $30 per week per car ? Will the Council allow this? How many cars? Four? Or more?

How do others get on in this kind of area when they don't have car parking?

Regards,
 
My questions...

Did Mrs P147 also feel positive about it?

Is the neighbourhood likely to continue to improve?

WIll you be renting out your current PPOR once you move into the new home?

What level of debt would be you taking on to purchase the new place?

Is your financial/income situation where you would be in a place where you were unable to take the risk associated with a fall in the market?

To me, it seems like you really liked the place and it had most of the things you were looking for. I have found most good things tend to be surprises and come often before we start to look for them!

In the end, you are looking for a PPOR, not an IP. and I think the rules are different.

Worst case scenario to me seems to be that you would have to sell your current PPOR to move into the new one.

If your personal finances are up to the task, I would put in a low offer and see if it's accepted. You might get even more of a bargain.

Pen
 
IMHO

1) Dont judge feesability on any purchase by our current place in the RE cycle. I think bargains are out there even in recession times with 10%+ interest rates.

2) Is it possible you can renovate this property to the point that even if it goes down in value you will still break even? This I think is a big factor in my mind if I were in your shoes. I mean who cares if your bargain decreases in value if you can offset this with ease thru a cheap reno.

3) I hate the idea of city investments. They have not done brilliantly here in WA compared to expanding costal regions and to be honest even though the above sounds nice it seems to suit you better as a PPOR than a specific investment. You need to decide what you REALLY want, and definately answer questions like; will we move away from here any time soon? Because if you buy with your heart and then it turns out your situation is volatile you could perhaps have shot yourself in the foot.

4) What if that bargain in 1-2 yrs time never comes? I have many friends who are 'gonna' do something, but the procrastination disease nabs them. I am not saying go out and buy like crazy but be brutaly objective and if it still adds up dont let 'what if's' stop you from getting a good deal.

Overall I agree with Pennyk. Put in a nice low offer and keep your poker face on. If you dont NEED this place - then dont bend further than you are willing to so that you KNOW you are getting a great deal.

Hope that helps a bit. I myself have been pondering what I will do once my current project is finished and have decided 'what the hell' because as long as I can service the loans, the minimum of 5-10% CG in my local area that I envisage will make it worth it in the long run.

<KS>
 
Les said:
G'day Peter,

Any chance that the "other street access" will allow you to rent car parking spaces for locals who don't have them. Might cost as little as a decent fence and a couple of floodlights worked off a sensor. Could you pull $30 per week per car ? Will the Council allow this? How many cars? Four? Or more?

How do others get on in this kind of area when they don't have car parking?

Regards,

Good Point Les. You could get around $40 to $50 a week for car space which would only be one. Maybee more if you built a garage. A buit more income all helps.

On that point it is big enought STCA to build over the garage another self contained unit which other nearby have done. Assuming the brothel was OK.

Thanks for the feedback, Peter 147
 
Ross said:
Pete147
Its clear from your use of words, you are very emotional about this one, understandable given it will be a future and possibly long term PPOR.

Suggest do a bit more research into the negatives you mentioned ( rental vacancies / realistic rate achievable ). Risk of buying and then selling in a few years as your plans change etc

Its clear you know how to "crunch the numbers" on this, just do some "worse case scenarios" as well and see how they stack up.........let these be your guide, not your heart.

Thanks Ross. On a pure financial basis I should wait. I will get my agent to inspect and assess the risk, Peter147
 
Hi Peter,

As a PPOR for 2-5 years in the future...

1) Are you certain you'll want to live in the area & it will meet your circumstances then?

2) If it doesn't would it still be a good IP (to sell or keep)?

3) Do you have to sell anything to buy it?


Personally I don't believe they can build anymore inner city terraces like that one - even with the plans for Redfern.

I reckon it's a good investment if the answers are right above & you can handle a pessimistic rise in interest rates of 4% (progressively over the next three years).

Reno ideas are a good one - and renovate it as an IP NOT as a PPOR - in 2-5 years if you're moving in you can redo whatever you want then :)

Lots of other good ideas above.......

I suggest that provided you think your finances will be OK, you put a low-ball offer in NOW (in writing) regardless of whether you've made your decision to buy or not.

It keeps you in the game and gets a dialogue happening.

If you change your mind you can always withdraw before signing the contract :)

Cheers,

Aceyducey
 
pennyk said:
My questions...

Did Mrs P147 also feel positive about it?

Yes- :eek: She usually walks straight in and straight out and I get the look :rolleyes: She sees the potential and likes the area. 1 point for!

pennyk said:
My questions...

Is the neighbourhood likely to continue to improve?

Yes, Has been doing 10% + recently and now moving more up market.

pennyk said:
WIll you be renting out your current PPOR once you move into the new home?

Assume we keep old PPOR yes. Say $400 week in todays dollars.

pennyk said:
What level of debt would be you taking on to purchase the new place?

Is your financial/income situation where you would be in a place where you were unable to take the risk associated with a fall in the market?

Debt level a LVR of all investments PPOR , IP and new would be 50% at $900k for new.

pennyk said:
My questions...

To me, it seems like you really liked the place and it had most of the things you were looking for. I have found most good things tend to be surprises and come often before we start to look for them!

In the end, you are looking for a PPOR, not an IP. and I think the rules are different.

Worst case scenario to me seems to be that you would have to sell your current PPOR to move into the new one.

If your personal finances are up to the task, I would put in a low offer and see if it's accepted. You might get even more of a bargain.

Pen

Wise comments all. Regarding the low bid you may be on to something.

From my gut I think the agents were nervous.

It is not median price but above for the area.
Has no real kitchen and bathroom being offices so will not rent into it value.
Has brothel next door (PS we don’t care, half of the suburbs is brothels, you know them because they never give you problems)
Only two other inspected plus us for an hour and the auction is in two weeks.
Owned by three parties all wanting to move on and two bought elsewhere.

Worst case is correct. Sell the PPOR for a larger PPOR with everything we need.

Your comments are much appreciated, Penny.

Peter 147
 
<KS> said:
Overall I agree with Pennyk. Put in a nice low offer and keep your poker face on. If you dont NEED this place - then dont bend further than you are willing to so that you KNOW you are getting a great deal.

Hope that helps a bit. I myself have been pondering what I will do once my current project is finished and have decided 'what the hell' because as long as I can service the loans, the minimum of 5-10% CG in my local area that I envisage will make it worth it in the long run.

<KS>

Correct KS. It is a want, not a need and we have been in the suburb nine years but who knows for the future?? Running asucessful business means if we leave i loose my clients so in thory it is unlikly but... we could do a treechange being sick of Sydney.

Suburb is unlikely IMO to do + CG for a year or two however supply is short so thats a factor in this instance.

Thanks Peter 147
 
Aceyducey said:
Hi Peter,

As a PPOR for 2-5 years in the future...

1) Are you certain you'll want to live in the area & it will meet your circumstances then?

2) If it doesn't would it still be a good IP (to sell or keep)?

3) Do you have to sell anything to buy it?


Personally I don't believe they can build anymore inner city terraces like that one - even with the plans for Redfern.

I reckon it's a good investment if the answers are right above & you can handle a pessimistic rise in interest rates of 4% (progressively over the next three years).

Reno ideas are a good one - and renovate it as an IP NOT as a PPOR - in 2-5 years if you're moving in you can redo whatever you want then :)

Lots of other good ideas above.......

I suggest that provided you think your finances will be OK, you put a low-ball offer in NOW (in writing) regardless of whether you've made your decision to buy or not.

It keeps you in the game and gets a dialogue happening.

If you change your mind you can always withdraw before signing the contract :)

Cheers,

Aceyducey

Like all what you say Acey except the 4% rise :eek:

Do you really think that is possible? Because if so it would mean even more bargains would come up and hence I should pass.

Again the low ball will not hurt.

Also perhaps I can rent out as three offices again and rent the flat out seperately for more return? Or even use one office for myself? and manage the others?

All good ideas. I gues it is a an IP to buy and hold for and future PPOR/IP

Peter 147
 
Hi Peter,

I agree with Acey. Put a low ball offer in and you may well get a bargain !

Some questions to further confuse your decision:

1. Have you lived next to a brothel ?

2. If you were renting, would you take the brothel into consideration ?. Would there be doors opening & closing all night ?

3. How would buying this propery effect your long term financial plans ?

4. How good is the area besides having a close proximity to the CBD ?. Is there a train station close by ?. Are there coffee shops & supermarkets close by ?

5. What sort of tennents would you attract in the short term ?
 
To brothel or not to brothel

Peter147

I'm unsure whether you meant the neighbours were just run down houses or actual houses of ill-repute (refer WillG's comment) but if its the real thing, at least the chicks next door will be pleasant to look at (I guess, don't frequent them myself ;-) )

If you know the market well, in my opinion it depends whether you think the characteristics of this property are not easily repeatable in a future lower market, if it is PPOR material.

We recently bought a "straight from the heart no head involved" (not like the brothels ;-) ) 12 acres and old farmhouse in Brisbane western suburbs for similar reasons to those you outlined - it suited our future plans perfectly, we knew the market in the particular suburb well, and we knew it was a rare piece of land to take our newborn daughter to, when she's 3 or 4, so she can be near a school we see her going to. We're doing the same as you suggested BTW - selling the current PPOR to our Trust to fund the move with deductible debt :)

Our property did not meet Steve Navra's "rental reality" check at all :-( (and after being one of his supporters you would think I'd listen to his advice) but it was virtually all land value, so we were pretty comfortable. How's land value stack up on the Redfern property ?

In our case, the fear of losing an ideal addition to what we really wanted for our future, rightly or wrongly, overruled all our logic. We had preciously stuffed around when looking at the ideal 'final resting place' and missed some absolute gems pre-boom, so we were pretty sensitive and maybe a bit over-stimulated (another brothel comparison!)

We did however make sure we could sustain a few percent interest hike, and it has pretty good tenants paying a fair chunk of the mortgage.

So I guess all I really mean, is if it is a rare jewel and you are the best one to know, don't miss out (but make the rude offer after a pre-purchase building and pest from a known entity to massage the vendors into a submissive mood - assuming they don't own the brothel too ! :p).

If its characteristics are repeatable in other properties to become available after the next couple of interest rate hikes, then I'd be waiting for them. Actually that's a lie - I would have bought this one, because I'm impulsive :)

Hope you do the right thing for you
Best of luck
TryHard
 
Sexist

Of course I was being a bit Brisbane style close-minded in that last post - I said the "chicks" next door would be good to look at - I guess it could also be a male brothel, or mixed, if there are such a thing ? I need to get out more :D
 
kissfan said:
There's a lot of "in's and outs" to be considered here, or maybe that should read pros and cons :D

Regards
Marty

Hello All

I am glad everyone enjoys the Brothel jokes.

FYI Yes it is an actual Brothel. Around the Inner City Sydney they are more common than people think.

The way to pick is the are in perfect condition, neatly painted in conservative tones and have massive house numbers. Usually a blind with the number 1 m high. Also must have a rear entrance for discretion.

On the plus side they are covered with CCTV which will discourage any cat burgulars as well as the consesquences if the one of the girls "minders" caught an inturder. :D

You rarely see clients because the peak time is late at night and despite popular myths most guys slink into brothel very shy and embarrased. :eek:

We have three down where our street meets Elizabeth and having lived here 9 years we have sen three girls and 6 clients. Noted though we are not next door.

Will reply to our present position this arvo, Peter 147
 
WillG said:
Hi Peter,

I agree with Acey. Put a low ball offer in and you may well get a bargain !

Some questions to further confuse your decision:

1. Have you lived next to a brothel ?

No. Some nearby but not next to. Good Point maybe I am assuming too much. Has anyone out there do so and can comment?

WillG said:
Hi Peter,
2. If you were renting, would you take the brothel into consideration ?. Would there be doors opening & closing all night ?

Personally No. Though I acknowledge selling may be an issue. So provided I want to hold long term I am OK.

Doors? Possibly an issue if a client was too drunk to work out the numbers! re noise the walls are thick and the doors protected so probably the noise would be no worst that usual inner city.

WillG said:
Hi Peter,

3. How would buying this property effect your long term financial plans ?

I don’t really have along term plan ATM. But this would mean cashflow would need to divert to reno and the mortgage instead of pure investments. So yes, impacts badly in trade off for nicer PPOR.

WillG said:
Hi Peter,
4. How good is the area besides having a close proximity to the CBD ?. Is there a train station close by ?. Are there coffee shops & supermarkets close by ?

Very good. Café Central here and Central Station nearby. Excellent pub across the road with restaurant. Supermarket in suburb but not walk. One Block back from main shopiing strip.

WillG said:
Hi Peter,
5. What sort of tenants would you attract in the short term ?

As is students or small office professionals due to lack of kitchen etc… Usually get 150 per bedrooms. Again need my agent to inspect and honestly value.

Thanks to all, I will report back, Peter 147
 
im pretty sure brothels need offices too ... :D

more seriously, if you didnt buy it what would you do? how would the different options stack up over the long term?
 
pete_w said:
im pretty sure brothels need offices too ... :D

more seriously, if you didnt buy it what would you do? how would the different options stack up over the long term?

Options If I Do Not Buy

1. Wait until market falls more and buy another. Hard to say on this one. The area of Surry Hills is becoming very attractive to yuppies and compared to Paddington is cheap.
There is a question mark over a drop in the market will cause a drop here.

2. Extend present PPOR. Cost effective, no SD but min. yard and no parking. Woudl get three bed and two bath over two bed and one bath.

I am going to get agent to appraise rental on the extention as it may be cost effective anyhow.

3. Do a development of apartments with a friend. Keep one as penthousr for PPOR. Realistically 2.5years away and only 50% chance of council approval. And for some reason does not excite me. Probably a control thing. Having to share and such.

Will other come on the market? Who can say? So far most of what has been interesting is too high $$ or bad layout/orientation/location ( main road).

So.... Having consodered all your advise i will:

1. Get my PM / RE agent to appraise here (PPOR) and there for rental and market value. She is independant and trustworthy. Will give an honest report.

2. Finalise rework on plans for new place and cost works to make liveable now and as dream PPOR. Get Mrs 147 approval.

3. Seriously surf alternatives on the net to check out the market.

4. Consider my future servicability for the deal. Risk, loand etc..

Thanks to all, Peter 147
 
i am trying to work on my deal evaluation skills, so any comments welcome.

playing with some numbers i would say go for it, as long as your servicability can handle a rate rise. i would try for 3% as a conservative estimate, or 4% as acey said if you're paranoid! even if you purchase a bit too early and the price drops further (say 10%), you would have a fair bit of equity in it, going from the $900k total at around 50%. if you can hold on for 3 to 5 years, imo you wont be out for long. the feb API has 7% growth in UQ surry hills for 12 months to november 2004. when did sydney start to decline? about november 2003? even if the api figure is wrong, with $100k of work done, a stones throw to the city, your chances of CG over and above the decline look pretty strong to me. you could do worse, and you seem to know the area pretty well and think its rising in appeal. if you get a fixed IO loan for three years, you're ok for rate rises. if it turns out you really like the place, when you refinance switch to P&I. time heals all wounds, and as long as servicability is ok, maybe the risk of short term loss is ok for your ideal PPOR, especially if you believe you will get long term gains in CG. maybe in strictly financially terms it is not ideal, but this is not a strictly financial thing as its possibly your ppor as well. we are not financial machines, we are people. we still need to sleep at night and also be able to look at ourselves in the mirror, sometimes a bit of heart is ok :)
 
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