negative/neutral/positive gearing

What range would most consider a "neutral geared" property.

Say a property all up costs you $20 per week or you earn $20 per week from the property would you consider it near enough to be neutral?

When would you put your hand on your heart and say this is negativly geared and this is positively geared?

Scott
 
I think your range is appropriate.

However I don't even like the terms positive or negative geared - I think they are too prescriptive and should be banned.

I prefer to express that I like to buy higher yielding investments with strong prospect for capital growth. Whether they make me $50 pw or lose me $50 pw is less important than the potential to make ten times that amount in capital growth in a normal year.

But I have the personal income to allow this, even more so when my missus finally finishes her studies next year :)

People who blindly chase one or the other are missing the point in my book.

What do others think?

Cheers,
 
scott said:
What range would most consider a "neutral geared" property.

Say a property all up costs you $20 per week or you earn $20 per week from the property would you consider it near enough to be neutral?

It's a bit like asking how long a piece of string; it varies with income, tax circumstances, financing method, other commitments, etc.

Acceptable cashflow gains or losses also depends on your strategy (eg yield and/or capital gain). A $20pw ($1040 pa) shortfall should not perturb the growth-focussed investor who watched their property appreciate $10 000 that year. On the other hand it might be a poor result for someone who bought in an area with limited growth prospects and was relying entirely on the positive cashflow to make their money.

Note that circumstances can change as markets do. For instance Steve McKnight's approach was buying positive cashflow in country areas, with the expectation that accumulating heaps of $50 weekly surpluses would provide financial independence. What actually happened was that there was heaps of capital gain in the areas he bought in, so he was soon able to sell IPs in one area and make much more in two year's capital appreciation than in 20 years of cashflow positive yields. What started out as a cashflow strategy became one fuelled by high capital growth.

Income is also important. A shortfall of $20pw (or even $200pw) is trivial for a person on $200k pa with few other commitments. On the other hand it could be a substantial burden for someone on $20k pa.

'Near enough' is something that only you can decide, after consideration of your own circumstances and whether the property's growth prospects outweigh any negative cashflow or opportunity costs.

When would you put your hand on your heart and say this is negativly geared and this is positively geared?

No. You don't know for sure until the financial year is over (unless you've been keeping track more frequently). Even then some urgent repairs and/or vacancy will throw all your figures out and could turn a +ve into a -ve. On the other hand you could get a rent increase that improves the figures.

I think the much more important question is whether the cashflow status of all investments allows one to maintain a growing portfolio, even with risks like loss of job, needed repairs, vacancy, stagnant property values etc.

Peter
 
Property changes from negative to positve over the long term unless interest rates go through the roof

If you buy an IP now (Not in regional areas) then over time Rents will increase and eventually it will become positive and also have the Capital Gain

As you buy more properties its hard to work out as there are so many variables

I believe you need to probably be negative geared to buy good quality property (A bit of pain for a lot of gain) and as time goes by you will get the rewards

Bill
 
Agree with above sentiments. A lot of ppl I meet focus on whether an IP is +/-geared using the first year's calcs. Once you start throwing in post year one interest rate changes, CPI changes, rent changes, then a -geared property can quickly move to neutral/+geared. And that's before you mess with your other matters that affect after tax CF. Play with my spreadsheet at
http://www.tekserv.com.au/bruce/IP1.xls to get what I mean.

IMHO, negative gearing is most effective and clearly represented, when you just focus on buying the top end of the market, low supply high demand property. This might be a period home in an exclusive suburb (Vaucluse or Mosman), or a short supply canal front home in a desireable suburb (Minyama, Sunshine Coast).

Positive gearing is currently available in fringe burbs of Brisbane, by buying under $220k, then throwing a mobile home in the back yard or attaching a granny flat.

As for when a property is neutrally, negatively, or positively geared, if you have to sweat $20 a week, then you are better sticking your money in funds, and forgetting PI.
 
Meanwhile, do you think we'll ever again need to light fire from rubbing two sticks... It just made Tom Hanks day on Cast Away...... or is it as redundant as the Dos operating system?

yeah I know, it's off topic....but so's makin fun of others' colloquialisms..... :eek:
 
Damn you fast Geoff !!

had to rethink my post..

IMHO its a fine line between - and Nuetral (0?) geared..a slight increase in rent or reuction in loan etc or gradually over time it may go from - to 0 before hitting +..we restructed when IPs hit 0 and went back into - to get another IP C?

R
 
BillC said:
Property changes from negative to positve over the long term unless interest rates go through the roof

If you buy an IP now (Not in regional areas) then over time Rents will increase and eventually it will become positive and also have the Capital Gain

Yep, though note that the more negative cashflow it is, the bigger punt you're taking about future capital growth.

If the yield is 3% then you may need 7% growth pa to 'break even' (in paper wealth terms). If the yield is 8% then 2% pa growth may be enough.

In the next 5 years, is average growth more likely to exceed 7% or 2%?

7% pa growth may not be unreasonable for well-located property over the long term, but it might be a bit much to expect it in the several years following a boom.

And given that a dollar today is worth much more than two dollars in the future, cashlflow and growth in the early years is more critical than later on (where even a small percentage growth on the now large portfolio is a big gain).

Some people may still find the 3% yield IP still worth buying for the longer term, but if they forecast growth of less than 7% pa in the next 5 years then there may be better things to do with money in the interim.

Peter
 
Spiderman said:
Yep, though note that the more negative cashflow it is, the bigger punt you're taking about future capital growth.

If the yield is 3% then you may need 7% growth pa to 'break even' (in paper wealth terms). If the yield is 8% then 2% pa growth may be enough.

In the next 5 years, is average growth more likely to exceed 7% or 2%?

7% pa growth may not be unreasonable for well-located property over the long term, but it might be a bit much to expect it in the several years following a boom.

And given that a dollar today is worth much more than two dollars in the future, cashlflow and growth in the early years is more critical than later on (where even a small percentage growth on the now large portfolio is a big gain).

Some people may still find the 3% yield IP still worth buying for the longer term, but if they forecast growth of less than 7% pa in the next 5 years then there may be better things to do with money in the interim.

Peter

I agree with what you said here, Peter. Especially about the real estate performing better initially, and "regressing to the mean", ( ;) ) as time goes on.

Personally I would want a property that yields 5% or 6% in rent, which is easily achievable in some southern Adelaide suburbs at the moment — more so if you can haggle REAs. :p

Each to their own. :)
 
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