New Member - Investing in Melbourne

Hi all,

I've just joined this forum, after reading some of the Jan Somers books. I've spent the last couple of days trawling through these forums (as a visitor), and just after some friendly advice.

I'm currently residing in the Northern suburbs of Melbourne, and looking to purchase our first IP. We currently own our PPOR outright (about $650-$700k in value). We've had it paid off now for about 5 years, but haven't really been saving, due to the amount of work required to finish off our PPOR (new home). We are getting to the stage now were we've saved about $40k, and are hoping to take the plunge into the property market.

From reading the books, and these forums I have sumarised some of the tips:

Puchase a property with value adding potential (be it a quick renovation, sub-divide).
Purchase a house over a unit/apartment, because the land value is what increases.
Purchase slightly below the median house price in that suburb (not the lowest amount).
Purchase brick, over weatherboard houses and with low maintenance if possible.
Ask the question, would I live here.
Purchase something that appeals to a wider range of renters.
Try and get the smallest house on the biggest property possible.
My brothers have always recommended buying close to the bay, as you'll never loose money close to the water.

Some questions, what side of the bay (Geelong side or Frankston/Mornington side) has the most potential for increased property prices?
We are more conservitive types, so we would be looking to pay the first IP outright as quickly as possible, then use that as the equity to buy a 2nd property, and keep our PPOR safe, as a fall back.

The situation. Currently earning about $65k gross (my own IT company) per year (only working 3.5-4 days a week, and have 12 weeks off a year to spare). My wife doesn't work, as we have 2 young kids (1 in primary, and a 1 year old), so she only receives the Part A/B payments from the government. She will be getting back to work in about 4 years, so at that point the money will be pouring in. So far I have been using the BAS money collection in a netbank account till the BAS is due, which gives us around $200 a year in interest. We anticipate the 1st property will take about 10 years to pay off.

There is talk of us having a flattening market at the moment, and possibly heading towards a decline, if interest rates keep going up. What are peoples opinion on the investment clock. Surely our politicians have by now worked out how to stop us going into a recession, and with all these promising things happening in Australia, it's hard to imagine we are going to go belly up? Then again, we can't help what's happening around the world.

Are we better off waiting till the end of year to see what happens? Every day I drive past a block of land we were going to purchase 7 years ago (5 acres) for $400k. At the time we thought it was a bit too much, so we let it slide. There is a house on there now, and it's worth about $3.5-4 million now. We sometimes feel the more we wait, the more everything goes up, which has been the case for the last 18 years, since the '91-92 recession.

We've been burnt before with the 'financial planner' and managed funds 'scam' that Jan talks about in her book. The only person that did well out of this was the financial planner. We don't wan't to rely on the same superannuation 'scam', which seems to give with the one hand and take with the other.

BTW, we are only 34 years old.
 
I've just joined this forum.

Welcome! :)

We are getting to the stage now were we've saved about $40k, and are hoping to take the plunge into the property market.

You are certainly in a great position to do so.

Purchase a house over a unit/apartment, because the land value is what increases.

I'm still confused by this argument. I would think location is more important. People usually shop with a certain budget for example $400K and think 'will I buy an inner city apartment for that, or an outer suburban house', rather than 'I'm going to buy in, say Elwood, should I buy a house or apartment' (where you're probably talking about $500K-$1M price difference). What I'm saying is, of course a house may have more growth than an apartment if they are in the same location, but would think location would has more of an influence than size of the land. From my own experience, I have an inner city apartment which has had growth since I bought it 18 months ago of about 35% vs. my outer suburban house on 650m which has had growth of about 17% for the last 14 months since I bought it.

Purchase brick, over weatherboard houses and with low maintenance if possible.

I think people question this too, but I personally prefer brick.

Ask the question, would I live here.

I do this too, but just careful with it. Sometimes what you might want/like, is not what the general tenancy pool is looking for. A minor mistake I made with my first property. I loved it, but had some common feedback from potential tenants saying the same thing. Not a huge issue, but for my second property, I thought a bit more practical and spoke to local property managers to find out what features tenants expected in a property for that area.

My brothers have always recommended buying close to the bay, as you'll never loose money close to the water.

This I personally agree with, although there are other locations that also have great gains. My properties are all fairly close to the beach.

Some questions, what side of the bay (Geelong side or Frankston/Mornington side) has the most potential for increased property prices?

Bit of a crystal ball question, I personally prefer the eastern side, however have just bought on the western side, as I feel there is still good value for money in some areas.

There is talk of us having a flattening market at the moment, and possibly heading towards a decline, if interest rates keep going up. What are peoples opinion on the investment clock.

Plenty of people with far more experience than me, are saying to hold off buying in Melbourne. I just bought however. Reason being, I'm of the 'time in the market, not timing of the market'. I'm still young, so plan to hold the properties for many years so will just buy when I can. I am also fairly new at the game, so not confident enough to venture interstate so prefer to keep within my local area of Melbourne.

Are we better off waiting till the end of year to see what happens?

If I was in your position, and if you definately want to buy in Melbourne, then I'd be looking now. Certainly wouldn't be rushing into it, but would be on the look out for suitable properties and purchase if you find something. Just my opinion.

BTW, we are only 34 years old.

And you've paid off a decent PPOR, that's fantastic! You have plenty of time, so if I were you, I'd be going for the 'time in the market' method.
 
We are more conservitive types, so we would be looking to pay the first IP outright as quickly as possible, then use that as the equity to buy a 2nd property, and keep our PPOR safe, as a fall back.



Are we better off waiting till the end of year to see what happens? Every day I drive past a block of land we were going to purchase 7 years ago (5 acres) for $400k. At the time we thought it was a bit too much, so we let it slide. There is a house on there now, and it's worth about $3.5-4 million now. We sometimes feel the more we wait, the more everything goes up, which has been the case for the last 18 years, since the '91-92 recession.


BTW, we are only 34 years old.



check this out!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_pf2PvHjjw
 

I had a quick look at this video, something doesn't add up. Towards the end, it shows in 10 years a total value of $2.4 million. It then shows a 4.5% rental yield of $108,000, which is great. What I'm not sure about here is the Loan Interest of 6.5% only being $62,400 and then a cash flow of $45,600 pa.

Can someone confirm that this is incorrect? I don't understand how you can have a 4.5% rental yield, and a 6.5% interest rate, and still be making $45k a year in cash flow? Am I reading this wrong? Unless this is factoring in the 8% compounded rise in the value, in which case there is no cash flow till a property is sold.
 
I had a quick look at this video, something doesn't add up. Towards the end, it shows in 10 years a total value of $2.4 million. It then shows a 4.5% rental yield of $108,000, which is great. What I'm not sure about here is the Loan Interest of 6.5% only being $62,400 and then a cash flow of $45,600 pa.

Can someone confirm that this is incorrect? I don't understand how you can have a 4.5% rental yield, and a 6.5% interest rate, and still be making $45k a year in cash flow? Am I reading this wrong? Unless this is factoring in the 8% compounded rise in the value, in which case there is no cash flow till a property is sold.

Burner,

Before i try and answer these questions it annoys me that people misrepresent property investment like that video, property investing is great imo and no need to fudge the figures. Why use a LVR of 80%? the other 20% plus costs has to come from somewhere, normally borrowed against another property and if not there is still an opportunity cost, why not just use purchase price $400k, debt $430k per property. Another thing he does is discuss the cashflow after ten years which would be positive but not the short term where u fund the difference, that also needs to be taken into account, glad to get that off the chest!!

Now in terms of your question he is talking about a yield of 4.5% against the 10 year value of the portfolio, so the rent goes up as the value does but the loan stays the same so assuming a rate of 6.5% then the loan payments would still be $62,400 so a gross cashflow of $45,600.

Hope that helps, you are in a great position to capitalize on your hard work, i hope u make the right choices.
 
Burner,

Before i try and answer these questions it annoys me that people misrepresent property investment like that video, property investing is great imo and no need to fudge the figures. Why use a LVR of 80%? the other 20% plus costs has to come from somewhere, normally borrowed against another property and if not there is still an opportunity cost, why not just use purchase price $400k, debt $430k per property. Another thing he does is discuss the cashflow after ten years which would be positive but not the short term where u fund the difference, that also needs to be taken into account, glad to get that off the chest!!

Now in terms of your question he is talking about a yield of 4.5% against the 10 year value of the portfolio, so the rent goes up as the value does but the loan stays the same so assuming a rate of 6.5% then the loan payments would still be $62,400 so a gross cashflow of $45,600.

Hope that helps, you are in a great position to capitalize on your hard work, i hope u make the right choices.

Got it now, thanks heaps. So am I right in assuming most of you increase the rental on a yearly basis, according to the growth of the area and after some consultation with the property manager/real eastat agents and/or general feel of your properties worth?

I want to also thank everyone who has responded so far, it's been a positive reinforcement of what our feelings have been so far. I'm just spewing we didn't start anything earlier, after we did so well on our first PPOR (doubled our money in 5 years).
 
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