Property Market Indicator - property cycle – Is he right?

Hello all,

Herron Todd White rate Sydney and Brisbane in the Property Market Indicator list as recovering - rising market in the property cycle. Melbourne and Adelaide, both peaked.

But we all know Brisbane has risen for a while, and Melbourne market is still VERY HOT. Adelaide price is till low.

Is it right? Any comments?
 
With the multi tiered markets, both in Sydney and Melbourne, it is almost impossible for anyone to describe the state of the market, either as rising, peak or declining.

HTW Aug report had Melbourne at its peak of the cycle (in red, meaning higher risk/ over heated market) however then changed it to Rising market (in blue- less risk) the very next month - Sep report..!

Inner melbourne has had highest growth within a year in decades (in the last 12 months) whilst outer had remained stagnant. generally speaking (with some exceptions).

I used to get every report under the sun previously however wouldn't look at them now beyond getting some genral understanding of niche markets or for its entertainment value..!

Inner melbourne is still going strong (though I doubt it will do that for a long time) and some outer bayside suburbs started moving 6 months ago and going very strong.

Similarly parts of Adel (Elizabeth et al) are doing exceptionally well.

In essence, with such fragmented market conditions in each large city, I woudl look at opportunities in the growth corridors of those cities rather than basing my decision on the general outlook of the state.

Harris




Hello all,

Herron Todd White rate Sydney and Brisbane in the Property Market Indicator list as recovering - rising market in the property cycle. Melbourne and Adelaide, both peaked.

But we all know Brisbane has risen for a while, and Melbourne market is still VERY HOT. Adelaide price is till low.

Is it right? Any comments?
 
Brisbane recovering? Recovering from what? As far as I can see it took off in 2001 and except for a short breath in 2006 it hasn't stopped. So I'm not sure what he means when he says "recovering".
 
In my opinion HTW and other property reports are okay for a very general snapshot, but if you do enough DD you will work out what is the best area for you. These reports are a general guide, but I don't take them as gospel. We don't really know what criteria they have used to get the results they do, so the info may not be relevant for my situation

I'm the one taking all the risks as far as IP investing, so I make sure I know what I'm getting myself into by researching locations in detail. If the figures,population growth and infrastructure spending etc, stack up then I take responsibility for my decision in investing in a certain city/town, .... not from a report.

Martin :p
 
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Herron Todd White

My own opinion with HTW is that while they may be good valuers, the are not at all strong on timing/ property cycles.

From earlier in this posting, it appears highly likely that they would have received an adverse reaction from people with their classification for Melbourne and then thoughts to themselves "oops, we had better change that."



Chris
 
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