Property runs on emotion, which suburb & state will be going up/down next?
- Thread starter hagel
- Start date
I believe property runs on fundamentals which translate into demand and supply, and that emotion plays a role within that, particularly when it comes to speculative patterns.
I believe where there is significant demand which outstrips supply, whether that is low cost or ultra high cost, then prices will increase.
I see this continuing in Brisbane, and expensive coastal properties and capital city high end properties.
Tim
I believe where there is significant demand which outstrips supply, whether that is low cost or ultra high cost, then prices will increase.
I see this continuing in Brisbane, and expensive coastal properties and capital city high end properties.
Tim
investors look for undervalued suburbs , and momentum builds that in a boom like we have had , they snowball (because of emotion) and become (temporarily) overvalued
i believe that to be the case here in a place like elizabeth , a low socio place that was cheap , was swamped by investors (those who got in early have made some great gains) , but is now overvalued for what it is compared to other suburbs that in my opinion are better than elizabeth , but now cheaper.
they become the next snowball - you just have to pick them , then get emotion running on the next wave and away you go
easier said than done , especially if things quieten down for a while like i suspect they will
i believe that to be the case here in a place like elizabeth , a low socio place that was cheap , was swamped by investors (those who got in early have made some great gains) , but is now overvalued for what it is compared to other suburbs that in my opinion are better than elizabeth , but now cheaper.
they become the next snowball - you just have to pick them , then get emotion running on the next wave and away you go
easier said than done , especially if things quieten down for a while like i suspect they will
no probs
i just feel that people that have jumped into elizabeth in the last few months may be a bit late in the short to medium term , but in the long term i am sure they will not lose.
but for a while it was the big buzz suburb here , and when it started getting the $ it was recently , i must admit i have been scratching my head.
IMO places closer to town will go from ordinary suburbs to sought after suburbs ( have already to a point , like clearview , woodville , dover gardens etc) but elizabeth will always be elizabeth and i just cant imagine it ever being a suburb people will (generally) live in because it is a nice suburb , not in my lifetime , anyway.
who knows though , i remember when chadstone was the pits in melbourne
i just feel that people that have jumped into elizabeth in the last few months may be a bit late in the short to medium term , but in the long term i am sure they will not lose.
but for a while it was the big buzz suburb here , and when it started getting the $ it was recently , i must admit i have been scratching my head.
IMO places closer to town will go from ordinary suburbs to sought after suburbs ( have already to a point , like clearview , woodville , dover gardens etc) but elizabeth will always be elizabeth and i just cant imagine it ever being a suburb people will (generally) live in because it is a nice suburb , not in my lifetime , anyway.
who knows though , i remember when chadstone was the pits in melbourne
interest rates will be against most "emotions" over the next 12 months.
after that i will happily make these calls for BOOMS.
Inner City Melbourne.
Sydney CBD.
Broome, Geraldton, Perth CBD and coastal.
Brisbane.
Darwin (just wait for it - you'll all be kicking yourselves)
that said, the whole of Australia will be hot-hot-hot in about 12 months - but these places will be news-worthy.
after that i will happily make these calls for BOOMS.
Inner City Melbourne.
Sydney CBD.
Broome, Geraldton, Perth CBD and coastal.
Brisbane.
Darwin (just wait for it - you'll all be kicking yourselves)
that said, the whole of Australia will be hot-hot-hot in about 12 months - but these places will be news-worthy.
what are you basing this on ? melbourne and brisbane are already on fire, maybe in 12 months they will have already peaked, and will have a 3-4 year slump like Sydney went through.
I personally think Perth will be at the very bottom of their market in 12 months, I think Sydney will be the best performer but not so much the CBD i think the middle and outter rings will be the suprises, as most of the cbd & eastern & northern suburbs are going very strong now.
P.S not saying you are wrong, nor are my thoughts necessarily right
Neither of us have a crystal ball also to add to the thread, i think it's important to not focus on run of the month suburbs and investing in them. I think its more important to base your investments on fundamental features like location, infrastructure, schooling, transport etc. Even if you pick the next flavour of the month, you might get a short term gain, but if its a rural town or something like that you might have 6 years of stale growth. I'd rather go for good "tick all the box" metro suburbs that will be more consistent over a period.
Agree with your thoughts on Elizabeth Granev (as usual
). But bare in mind prices are still relative. At the moment your absolutely right - I'm amazed over the last few weeks listings are now coming on at the $220+ level which threw me too!I see much better value in Salisbury, Clearview (I just bought in Enfield) and others relatively closer to the CBD. But if these surrounding suburbs now start moving higher as well (& I think Salisbury is seeing signs of that), then Elizabeth becomes relatively cheaper again.
For example further North in the brand new developments at Smithfield, Munno Para and Blakeview etc. prices are now fast approaching and pushing through $300k (and more), and if this continues - people will again look to cheaper houses in Elizabeth again if only for the land value.
But yes, for $230k (if they get that) in Elizabeth, I'd much rather spend the extra $30k or so to buy in Salisbury, Para Hills, Ingle Farm etc!
Luxury suburb still rises. Top 5% people are making much more even with further 2 interest rate rises next year, compare to what they are making 3 years ago.
As long as China&India stay robust (which show no sign of slowing), porsche suburbs will keep going.
however tightening morgage conditions will affect outer suburbs. the interest rate / sub-prime / chinese inflation issues may come together and peak in mid 2009-10. from there we gonna see a much wider gap between two speed economies, if we are not heading to a correction.
As long as China&India stay robust (which show no sign of slowing), porsche suburbs will keep going.
however tightening morgage conditions will affect outer suburbs. the interest rate / sub-prime / chinese inflation issues may come together and peak in mid 2009-10. from there we gonna see a much wider gap between two speed economies, if we are not heading to a correction.
I'd wait until the US slowdown effects are felt around the world before I'm too confident of that China and India, stronger for longer argument. The US property market has turned VERY quickly in the last couple of months.
Alex
scary how much we agree steve - and i know you have been a HUGE supporter of elizabeth and surounds - and rightly so , but even you must agree that its done and dusted , and its onto the next.
(it dissapointed me it took so long for you to reply when i mentioned the word elizabeth
I think there are still individual deals up there you'll find that are good (one we just got has gone up 6-7% before we've made the second monthy loan payment), but yes, in general the area has run hard and should now level off.
Had a drive around on Sunday and have some interesting new ideas at the moment - well not new, old one's rehashed, but you get the idea!
(I know, must be losing my touch!)
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