realistically how far can the ASX drop?

chilliaa said:
well you can start by downloading the companies latest annual report, forget about all the glossy stuff and head straight to the accounts and notes to the accounts.

I cant recall many companies that went bankrupt when they had controlled debt (or even better no debt!!!) and positive cash flow. Even with no debt you need to make sure the company has positive cash flow (especially free cashflow) otherwise it could just burn any cash in the bank and may soon be trying to access debt in an unforgiving market.

Whats the debt situation in GM? what is the level of their unfunded pension & entitlements schemes? Are the unions comming to the negotiation table? Why are they 'burning cash' as stated, if they are burning cash they are obviously not cash flow postive and thus in this climate should be avoided.


As i keep saying the stock market is a basket of stocks, unlike bull markets where the rubbish is carried along with the stars, in this type of market you had better be prepared to do your homework.
Click to expand...

Sorry, C, I should have been clearer.

I was being the devil's advocate in my post.

I know about all that stuff you mentioned, but at the end of the day, there are many companies that are hiding the real cashflow truth from the shareholders, the Banks etc until it's too late.

With this in mind, this is why I don't think that anyone should bet the whole farm on any one company, or the share market as a whole.

There are still a lot more "blue chip" companies to come out and announce their funerals in the coming months.
 
Recommending you invest 1M means nothing unless we know your overall financial position....

You only have to look at their cars to know to not invest in GM.................
 
GreatPig said:
But I agree with your damn scary sentiment.

GP
Click to expand...

Me too. But a post I made earlier about BHP has started me thinking. There is no way they can go the way of GM and this low exchange rate makes them more profitable than ever. This is free cash flow here.

The Baltic Dry Index is on the rise. If it rises more it will probably mean that China's back in the market and that should be the buy signal. If I still have the nerve. :D

Psychology is critical. Until you have been tested you don't know if you have the metal.
 
Sunfish said:
The Baltic Dry Index
Click to expand...
Is that some measure used in the Barossa Valley for semillons and chardonnays? :p

There is no way they can go the way of GM and this low exchange rate makes them more profitable than ever
Click to expand...
Company fundamentals are not my strong point (or even my weak point). I just look at the chart and see all these red bars, big gaps, and figures like -9% and think nope, not yet. :D

There was a big bounce off the $24 major support level and now we're down to a smaller one around $21. Then there's another small one around $15.50 and then the big one around $12. However, according to TC we'd have gone to hell in a hand basket by then, so maybe this is just an overshoot of the $24 support. Still, it's only given back about 3 years' gains so far, which is much better than many others which have given back more than a decade's worth (eg. NAB is back to 1997 prices).

Psychology is critical
Click to expand...
I'm told valium can help with that. :D

GP
 
"Storm financial"
Click to expand...
About three/four years ago a friend of mines sold his IP as well as his PPOR to invest all in the market, consulted by this firm. So happy with the outcome and believed he was set for life, he gave up his secured job (government) last year, to go traveling :eek:
 
s_t said:
You only have to look at their cars to know to not invest in GM.................
Click to expand...

and the huge, sucking pension and health plans left over from "the good ole days" before superannuation.

costing them hundreds of millions a year to fund.
 
Top 20 by value on 21/11/08 Alll ords at 3,221.50 -111.1
Dow Jones 7,552.29 -444.99
FTSE-100 3,874.99 -130.69

Is anything good buying at the moment?

I like IMF (which is a litigation lender...not a heavily traded stock)

BHP BHP BLT FPO 20.260

WPL WOODSIDE FPO 28.360

CBA CWLTH BANK FPO 28.050

RIO RIO TINTO FPO 54.890

NAB NAT. BANK FPO 17.950

WBC WESTPAC FPO 14.700

ANZ ANZ BANK FPO 12.420

TLS TELSTRA FPO 3.950

CSL CSL FPO 29.320

WOW WOOLWORTHS FPO 23.860

WDC WESTFIELDG STAPLED 13.200

MQG MACQ GROUP FPO 26.500

QBE QBE INSUR. FPO 22.950

FGL FOSTERS FPO 5.280

GMG GOOD GROUP FORUS 0.905

STO SANTOS FPO 12.000

WES WESFARMER FPO 17.150

ORG ORIGIN ENE FPO 15.200

NCM NEWCREST FPO 18.510

NWS NEWSCORP B VOTING 9.720
 
Ajax said:
Top 20 by value on 21/11/08 Alll ords at 3,221.50 -

Is anything good buying at the moment?
Click to expand...

I bought FXJ at 1.23, how low can it go? Retailers need to somehow advertise clearance sales in a recession. Even if the dividend drops by half from 14%, it will be still similar to cash...

PS - I was wrong in the past, do your own research
 
I reckon FXJ will be a good recovery stock. But i'm not buying it right now. I'll wait for the market to tell me when to buy.

BHP stubbornly refusing to go below $20. Looks like a critical support point.
 
AUSPROP... said:
do you honestly think research would help?
Click to expand...

of course research helps,
you cant control prices in the short term, but if long term earnings increase, shares will one day reflect that.
There are so many other factors at play apart from fundamentals in this market, when the market is ready it will go back to fundamentals in its own time, it always does.
 
well look on the bright side, with the ASX below 50% of its high, we are past the half way makr, so we are now GUARANTEED to be closer to the bottom than the top:D
 
speaking of general motors - did anyone else see on the news last night the report about the new products car show in the usa.

gm didn't bring out any new cars this time around, so had on show the range of current models ... talk about a "dog ugly" bunch of petrol guzzling cars and 4wd's.

what were they thinking about! they make cars no one wants to buy and then wonder why they're up the poop. the management and design teams there need to get their heads out of the 1950's backsides so they can be chopped off!
 
i've been doing my own research on stocks for years now (with mixed results)...there just seems to be a lack of information out there on obviously good stocks to buy. I worry that if the economy really goes pearshaped the banks will be the ones exposed to a lot of problem debts. Miners are vulnerable if commodity prices slump further.

There must be some stocks out there generating strong cash-flows that have been over-sold with the general market and should do well in a recession. Litigation lenders is one. Debt recovery firms is another. I know the saying that gambling and alcohol do well in a recession...though I don't think this logic would always apply. Maybe Woolworths (we have to eat), maybe Invocare (cause we all die sometime).

Am looking for companies with very strong cash-flow and low debts. IMF (successful litigation lender) seems a standout.

Am looking for suggestions

Ajax
 
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