sceptical about QLD

[Azazel]

We have been on the qld government panel to supply them with IT labour for the past 2 years and they didn't even have a single job being hired that went outside of their normal process. Every time you speak to govt departments up there you can't help but to see they are broke and have no budget for anything. It got so bad that they were asking us to pay them in order to remain a supplier to them. We eventually wrote to them and told them that there is really no point in having an accredited supplier while they dont have any money to spend.

It's beyond belief that the Bligh government was able to be so wasteful with all of the benefits of the resources boom and be the 1st state to lose the international AAA credit rating. People hated Newman (me too) but they had nothing to work with. Inheriting the Health payroll debacle that was originally costed at about $18M but will end up costing something like $1.4 Billion for example. How the hell does that happen without affecting infrastructure and frontline services. Which once you're in the hole, combined with resources going down rolls into jobs and company investment not happening.
And don't even get me started on the tunnels that no one uses

 

[RPI]

Hi RPI,
Silly question, but why do you have such data?

I have a large conveyancing practice

 

[Azazel]

when you consider the 9% in and out costs, reno, holding costs etc and then tax on the profits it would've probably been just as profitable to have held the property instead of flipping it imo and a whole lot less work.
As a bLind guess probably in region of $25k which then you pay tax on

That's what I was thinking, it doesn't look like the cheapest reno job with the internal paint, render, external paint, kitchen, driveway etc... and a quite a few months timeline, must have been some significant holding costs while it was vacant as well. A lot more than I would have done with it - but I would have investigated council rules on extending the living area into the carport if it was under the roofline or whatever. Probably would have been unfeasible. But still need to factor in covering up that ugly red brick (one of my personal dislikes

 

[hugh72]

That's what I was thinking, it doesn't look like the cheapest reno job with the internal paint, render, external paint, kitchen, driveway etc... and a quite a few months timeline, must have been some significant holding costs while it was vacant as well. A lot more than I would have done with it - but I would have investigated council rules on extending the living area into the carport if it was under the roofline or whatever. Probably would have been unfeasible. But still need to factor in covering up that ugly red brick (one of my personal dislikes

I don't think anyone was suggesting a 1 year hold, Reno and sell would be a good idea but even at its previous sale price of $409k it's still not bad value.
When you can show us a similar property at a similar distance from the CBD in any other capital other than Adelaide you will have an argument. I'm still waiting......
If you think buying in a hot market for close to 1m with a 2% yield is a good idea because unemployment is a couple of % points lower go ahead.

 

[Azazel]

I don't think anyone was suggesting a 1 year hold, Reno and sell would be a good idea but even at its previous sale price of $409k it's still not bad value.
When you can show us a similar property at a similar distance from the CBD in any other capital other than Adelaide you will have an argument. I'm still waiting......

You can wait as long as you want, I'm not looking to argue. I don't see anything suggesting a 1 year hold in your quote of me. Not sure we're on the same page, you either have your wires crossed or you're attributing what someone else wrote to me. As Sanj mentioned, the reno costs + holding costs would have been significant (<>8 months?). Doesn't seem like a worthwhile profit margin to me. With the magic of a crystal ball it's a different story, but of course it doesn't work like that.

If you think buying in a hot market for close to 1m with a 2% yield is a good idea because unemployment is a couple of % points lower go ahead.

Again, I think you got your wires crossed somewhere, I'm not sure where this comes from.

 

[hugh72]

Okay, going back to your original point about indicators other than people hyping it, by the time these are available often the market has already moved.
No one knows what will happen next, there could be another massive flood event which could sink property prices in BN for another 5 years or the huge price differential between SYD and BN might create a spike in interstate migration as it has done in the past. Yes successive governments have been incompetent and a large infrastructure spend has left the balance sheet in a mess which has led to a reduction in people on the government payroll. For better or worse Labor will probably reverse this trend. The low AUD has already seen an improvement in the tourism industry throughout the state while mining is in a large downturn
Why the hype? Well little growth for 7years with rising rents mean it is compelling from a yield point of view in certain locations and getting in ahead of pack is a sound approach IMHO

 

[Azazel]

Why the hype? Well little growth for 7years with rising rents mean it is compelling from a yield point of view in certain locations and getting in ahead of pack is a sound approach IMHO

I'm still sceptical about Brisbane in particular, but I think there's plenty of value buying in other areas in QLD. Ideally places that are at or near the bottom rather than near the top (like BNE), but that's hard to pick.

 

[hugh72]

I'm still sceptical about Brisbane in particular, but I think there's plenty of value buying in other areas in QLD. Ideally places that are at or near the bottom rather than near the top (like BNE), but that's hard to pick.

Well it's good to have a difference of opinion and have ideas challenged, holding a point of view from the comfort of general consensus is worthless , some of the other posters clearly have no idea regarding cyclones, floods and basic geography and assume anything north of the Tweed River is high risk

 

[JDP1]

I'm still sceptical about Brisbane in particular, but I think there's plenty of value buying in other areas in QLD. Ideally places that are at or near the bottom rather than near the top (like BNE), but that's hard to pick.

Id actually have the opposite view- i.e. sceptical about rest of qld but optimistic about Brisbane. And Brisbane is not near the top- I havnt read any reports/commentary that says its near the top. Brisbane still has a very long way to go.

 

[Azazel]

Id actually have the opposite view- i.e. sceptical about rest of qld but optimistic about Brisbane. And Brisbane is not near the top- I havnt read any reports/commentary that says its near the top. Brisbane still has a very long way to go.

It's a big place. You think if the economy finally picks up it will only effect Brisbane?
And how much do you think the house on the previous page will be worth in 12 months?

 

[JDP1]

It's a big place. You think if the economy finally picks up it will only effect Brisbane?
And how much do you think the house on the previous page will be worth in 12 months?

Yeah its a big place and if the economy picks up there will be many potential areas to benefit.
Brisbane will be one of them. May not be the highest percentage growth, but that's because it's also the lowest risk in qld. Risk has to be somewhat proportional to potential reward. personally I would not take higher risks in other areas in qld, compared to Brisbane. Prepared to accept a bit lower short term returns for lower risk. Long term rewards are far better than riskier areas
Same happened in Mel:Vic and Syd:nsw...stick it out forthe long term and see consistent and steasier returns come to inner-mid CBD markets.

 

[see_change]

Are ipswich and logan a good area? Are they away from flood or cyclone?

Yes they are but they do have a healthy supply of cashed up Sydney bogans , which is a bigger problem than the floods or cyclones ....

Cliff

 

[see_change]

I was using sarcasm, i gave up on Sydney 12 months ago and bought in Brisbane.

Slow .... I bought up in brisvagas around 18 months ago , but contemplating some , though with all the hype I'm wondering if I should buy some more , or maybe that's too late

I know...... ! I'll buy in Sydney and get ahead of everyone for the NEXT boom ...

Or maybe Patagonia

Cliff

 

[Azazel]

Yeah its a big place and if the economy picks up there will be many potential areas to benefit.
Brisbane will be one of them. May not be the highest percentage growth, but that's because it's also the lowest risk in qld. Risk has to be somewhat proportional to potential reward. personally I would not take higher risks in other areas in qld, compared to Brisbane. Prepared to accept a bit lower short term returns for lower risk. Long term rewards are far better than riskier areas
Same happened in Mel:Vic and Syd:nsw...stick it out forthe long term and see consistent and steasier returns come to inner-mid CBD markets.

I think there are riskier suburbs in and around Brisbane than some other areas in QLD. People from other states may not be familiar with either though.

 

[hugh72]

Yes they are but they do have a healthy supply of cashed up Sydney bogans , which is a bigger problem than the floods or cyclones ....

Cliff

A funny yet accurate observation Cliff

 

[JDP1]

I think there are riskier suburbs in and around Brisbane than some other areas in QLD. People from other states may not be familiar with either though.

yes, but most areas within 10km of the CBD are fine , providing its not in a flood area [ check the flood maps].
As with any suburb anywhere, no substitute for research and DD.

 

[JDP1]

Yes they are but they do have a healthy supply of cashed up Sydney bogans , which is a bigger problem than the floods or cyclones ....

Cliff

very true about the bogan remarks, its not just cashed up Sydney bogans, there are also a fair number of welfare-dependant qld bogans, and also kiwi bogans [although that number may have reduced]. Also flood prone to a degree and thus all of these reasons , along with distance, makes it unattractive for me.

 

[see_change]

A funny yet accurate observation Cliff

My normal observation on Logan is Mt Druitt with palm trees

Cliff

 

[see_change]

very true about the bogan remarks, its not just cashed up Sydney bogans, there are also a fair number of welfare-dependant qld bogans, and also kiwi bogans [although that number may have reduced]. Also flood prone to a degree and thus all of these reasons , along with distance, makes it unattractive for me.

We've made lots of money in Logan . I like it .

Interesting if you were to troll though the posts around 2002-2004 you'll find many similar threads . That's when we bought in Logan .

There were several posters who were negative about it and were also negative about places like rocky . All good little earners for many on the forum

Cliff

 

[JDP1]

We've made lots of money in Logan . I like it .

Interesting if you were to troll though the posts around 2002-2004 you'll find many similar threads . That's when we bought in Logan .

There were several posters who were negative about it and were also negative about places like rocky . All good little earners for many on the forum

Cliff

Not saying one cant make money there...quite possible given the yields and CG potential of the lower entry price. Compared to what however...i.e. opportunity cost given risk.

Plenty of people have also made a good buck or two in non-logan areas without the risk that logan has.