shares over property,now.

[Ross Sneddon]

Hi Bill

I don’t think that the bottom of the market has been reached as yet and has still some distance to go downwards. My feeling is that Australia will not make a strong move upwards until the rest of the major world economies get their states in order, mostly banking and then their stock exchanges will follow.

Australia will at least be held in check until this occurs. The effect of the Australian stock exchange, controlling around 2% of the world stock exchange funds, is relative small so we will need to see the major exchanges of the world making a move first.

When it does occur, I feel that there will be a growing and accelerating upwards surge which may be uncontrollable. Typically the downwards bear pressure is sharper than an up tend, but there is such pent up pressure at present that I fear the bull run will be strong when it happens.

If you discover those specific stocks to be included in the next run Bill, please whisper in my ear, I wouldn’t mind making a dollar. But would that mean I will be riding on the back of a bucking bull? It’s a worry.

Regards

Ross

 

[bundy1964]

Where did that bull come from today

bundy

 

[Ross Sneddon]

Hi Bundy

Did you ask one or two questions? I am smiling.

Looking at the more serious question. I think that the world markets, but particularly the US market, has had a bad state of the jitters for some time now. They couldn’t work out if or more likely when George Dubbya was going to send in the troops.

Timing now seems much clearer and that gives the market a little more confidence, rightly or wrongly, so one bull has broken clear and run, but he is only a little fellow, surely. This allows the Funds and Trusts to shift some stock. But look at the hedging. For the past week, the price of gold has slipped downwards quite noticeably. Wall Street is guarding its big A.

So let’s look ahead a little way when we are told the worst of the conflict will be over, massive destruction will have taken place and George Dubbya then has to go to Congress to ask for billions of dollars to rebuild after the enormous damage which I, from my innocent viewpoint, think will be obvious.

The UN doesn’t seem to be holding up its hands yet to say that they will jump in too quickly to help, so this will have to have an enormous effect on the US market, and to quote the well worn adage, “Wall street sneezes, the World catches the cold”.

But hey, its easy to be an economist, they all argue with each other and no one can really be said to be in the wrong, unless they oppose you. What do you think?

Regards

Ross

 

[stirling]

Information on shares vs property. Offerred without comment.

http://www.amphenderson.com.au/Our-news.1000/pdfs/CC20021206IComOIHousePriceBubble.pdf

Stirling

 

[Lotana]

What else can you expect from a fund manager?

Lotana

 

[bundy1964]

Originally posted by Ross Sneddon
Hi Bundy

Did you ask one or two questions? I am smiling.

Hi Ross

I was waiting for the news that would send the market south. I had the shotgun loaded with bear shot with my targets picked out.

The news came out but it was a bull doing the running It may only be a small bull but it was enough to put my plans out and it proved the experts wrong

bundy

 

[Ross Sneddon]

Hi Bundy

Hold the plans, I think that they are valid.

The Bull is only a Poddy and will stumble soon then your bear shot will be valuable. Some of yesterdays papers were suggesting it is running out of puff already, although I haven't seen todays assessments.

There are still dollars to be made in the next bear attack.

Regards

Ross

 

[GameBoy]

When is a market a bear market and when is it a bull market? Are we in a long term bear or bull market? What is long term? Are we in a little bull, within a small bear from a big long term bull? This is the way I see the charts, but im a newbie to trading and don’t confess to know the answers. If I did know the answers or the short term direction of the market I would bet the ‘house’ on the SPI (Futures, plenty of leverage and big returns for those who either have an ‘edge’ or are prepared to punt on the markets direction).
Instead ill use tight money management to limit my risk, cut my losers fast and ride my winners until my profit stops are hit. Shares are more profitable than we are lead to believe, because there are plenty of high leverage products available that you can make money from, no matter which way the market is headed. The hard part is, your are generally competing with ‘pros’ rather than mums and dads.
I still consider property No1, but we should be aware there are share products that give us similar leverage if not more and you can make money in either bear or bull markets. I think this is Robert Ks message in ‘Prophecy’, we need to learn to how to make money no matter what the markets/ economy throws at us. Example: Deal 4 Free gives you 80% leverage on CFDs (like shares, check their site) with low interest rates and gives you the ability to long or short. I don’t know much about options, but I believe they give you similar leverage.
I don’t mean to come across to know it all, as ive stated I don’t! Just don’t believe everything we’re told about shares. They can be equally as profitable as property in the long term (including leverage) and can only add to the armory of a ‘sophisticated’ investor, imo. Something I hope to become.

 

[Bill.L]

Hi Gameboy

The difference in the high leveraged products ie options, futures etc, is that you have a time decay premium built in. This is usually fairly high compared to a house loan interest rate and they don't return a dividend to boot.

bye