So much for immigration

[evand]

Looks like immigration will be curtailed in the near future. So much for the 'high immigration driving property prices' argument.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/immigration-slashed-to-protect-jobs-20090315-8yy2.html

 

[josko]

You beat me to it, Evan.

Like willfong, I believe it is short term.

Regards Jo

 

[willfong]

That's still an extra 115000 migrants that need housing in 2009/2010 and who is to say that they won't increase the number again once the situation improves?

 

[evand]

Wilfong, It's the nett immigration figure that counts. Not the gross.

And Jo, i'm sure that number of unskilled will be negligible compared to the overall immigration figures.

 

[Nathan]

they have cut immigration by 14% still 115,000 people per year instead of 133500 last year...

 

[josko]

Wilfong, It's the nett immigration figure that counts. Not the gross.

And Jo, i'm sure that number of unskilled will be negligible compared to the overall immigration figures.

Oh I know, I know....I was being facetious and as you can see changed my post.

I'm so anti-Rudd, I sometimes get carried away an a chance to attack him!

Regards JO

 

[peastman]

The cuts will be coupled with deletions to the critical skills list, which specifies which jobs are open to migrants. Trades in building and manufacturing will be removed, forcing companies to find bricklayers, plumbers, welders and carpenters domestically.

Does this mean less new developments, keeping a shortage of properties?

 

[Propertunity]

Looks like immigration will be curtailed in the near future. So much for the 'high immigration driving property prices' argument.

I thought so too, but a 14 per cent cut to the skilled migration program today, will only cap the number of workers to enter Australia next year at 115,000, down from 133,500 in 2008-09. So we are really talking about a cut of less than 20,000 people.

I know you don't like the HIA evand, but they reckon we are building 46,000 homes too few each year already. Cutting migration by less than 20,000 even if you put only 1 immigrant in each home (which is clearly ridiculous) - we still have an undersupply of new housing problem.

Adding to that is that volumes are down and the auction clearance rate in Sydney last Saturday was 69% according to APM's website. National auction clearance rate stays at 65% , which is 5% above official definition of property boom (60% auction clearance rate).

So less supply, increased demand = only one thing - PRICE RISES
Talk about a contrarian argument

 

[willfong]

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/02key.htm

Net permanent migration 07/08 was around 72k. Not sure about 08/09, even 20k less than the 07/08 level is still a positive 52k for 09/10. The number will probably be a bit higher than that as other countries will be tightening their migration/foreign worker numbers too, between that and places like London being in worse shape than us I bet there will be less Aussies heading overseas and a few more Aussie expats heading home.

 

[turk]

Hi Evand

Do you have any figures on the number of cashed up expats. heading home now compared to the past.

Anecdotally the number seems to have increased considerably.



Cheers

Pete

 

[vincenzo]

14% less immigrants, but who cares, as 115K is still a big number, and everyone is humping like rabbits because of the baby bonus, so Australia's population is still just going to grow and grow.

 

[Rob Williams]

everyone is humping like rabbits.

I'm not

 

[Propertunity]

I'm not

Don't make me say it again........."you need to get out more"

 

[ffc1883_1996]

Have a read of what ANZ think about the housing shortage and skilled migration on page 4 of their March Property Outlook.

 

[sash]

A 14% cut translates to about 20k less people or 8k less homes. But that will probably be mostly negated by the number of Aussies who are coming home from the UK, USA, and other parts. So the net impact is going to be very little.

Bear also in mind the underlying supply shortfall is now about 30-40k per annum. So over the next couple years at least there is an underlying shortage of rental housing. Especially in NSW where the dodgy brothers in labout are selling of public housing but not replacing it!

Looks like immigration will be curtailed in the near future. So much for the 'high immigration driving property prices' argument.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/immigration-slashed-to-protect-jobs-20090315-8yy2.html

 

[sphinx]

Bear also in mind the underlying supply shortfall is now about 30-40k per annum.

not sure why this highly dubious figure is always quoted to mislead people.
The figure is based on a big assumption that person/house and person/bedroom will stay at historical low. But person/house or bedroom is climbing back rapidly and a slight increase will create a huge oversupply.

With 1.8 people/house, California was in severe undersupply... much more severe than Australia.
In two years, 1.8 becomes 2.2 and California is now in severe oversupply with house prices down 50%. There has been no population collapse.. just grouping a bit more during recession. So much for the fictitious 30-40k shortfall without considering the underlying assumptions.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Dwelling undersupply is a highly elastic thing, and we'll find out just how much WHEN unemployment goes above 8%.....because then many won't be able to afford the rent they pay now.

 

[sash]

Hmmm.....the so called fictitious numbers you refer to are accepted by most Economists.

But never mind that...from a person who owns houses/units in the double digits...I can say that there has not been a lot of vacancy. So there is no oversupply.

As for houses falling 50%....I wish! If the houses I bought in the Western suburbs of Melbourne for 130k, 170k, and 155K only fell 50%. The new prices would be $65k, 85k, and 75.5K. That would mean I would have a return of 15-25% on any future purchases! Trouble is the prices are now going the other way.....let me know where I can find property that has fallen 50% any day of the week and I promise you I will buy at least 5 properties!

Wishful thinking my friend....time to go back to your economics 101 class!!!

not sure why this highly dubious figure is always quoted to mislead people.
The figure is based on a big assumption that person/house and person/bedroom will stay at historical low. But person/house or bedroom is climbing back rapidly and a slight increase will create a huge oversupply.

With 1.8 people/house, California was in severe undersupply... much more severe than Australia.
In two years, 1.8 becomes 2.2 and California is now in severe oversupply with house prices down 50%. There has been no population collapse.. just grouping a bit more during recession. So much for the fictitious 30-40k shortfall without considering the underlying assumptions.

 

[willair]

Dwelling undersupply is a highly elastic thing, and we'll find out just how much WHEN unemployment goes above 8%.....because then many won't be able to afford the rent they pay now.

That's the problem with Labor they have serious problems detecting changes in the world around them,the next 2 years in Australia is going to be interesting with external O-S events outside our control..willair..

 

[keithj]

The figure is based on a big assumption that person/house and person/bedroom will stay at historical low. But person/house or bedroom is climbing back rapidly and a slight increase will create a huge oversupply.

Do you have a link to show persons per dwelling is climbing rapidly ?

ANZ/ABS figures imply that it's been growing since 1995 - demand has outstripped supply since then.