So whats happening in the large regionals??

T

TMNT

so.......... got some spam from YIP i think with a review from Lomas and Yardley about regionals, and how they think it can work but unlikely to

rewind back 1-2 years, and the Evo city plan in NSW which focussed on areas such as dubbo, wagga, mildura, albury, bathurst, orange, wodonga IIRC
giving incentives and encouraging infrastrcture etc. etc.

it seemed these regionals were the next biggest thing,

fast fwd to now, sydney is booming, brisbane is about to, and probably melbourne not too far behind bris

so given that sydney is booming, going by spill over suburbs (yes, its a different region, so not next door), this means that these regionals should be booming next or at least decent CG

However, I dont see any fwd movemenet in areas such as wagga, dubbo and albury,
I havent kept a close eye on tamworth or orange or bathurst, but it seems pretty flat......

does everyone agree with Lomas/yardley on this one???

I know people who have bought up big in dubbo, wagga and albury
 
I have a house in Albury and I can't see it going anywhere.

Others disagree with me and advise me to wait. I'm thinking of getting out of there.
The only reason I'm not selling now is that it's costing me nothing to hold. But can't see the point really.

What's going to drive the growth? Population growth forcasts are only 1.65%pa.
 
Narromine

I have a Duplex and a Triplex in Narromine bought on the back of good things happening in Dubbo. Had them a few years now. Growth hasn't been out of this world but it's going O.K. Rental return fantastic. Focusing on paying down the debt and keeping them as part of our cash cows for retirement from the 9 - 5. Still a few years away at present.
Cheers Bullfrog
 
Dubbo has had gentle growth, which the local rag likes to call a boom.
But I can't imagine it taking off, there is just too much available land for new housing. So unless it gets a lot more expensive to build houses, there is going to be plenty of supply.

rentals are still tight at about 1% though, where as the other regionals seem to be softening a bit.
 
TMNT said:
Surely I'm not the only one looking in dubbo or wagga!!!!
Click to expand...

If I can I'm buy another one withint 12 months or so, Dubbo is on the research list for long term hold. I don't think the CG will be that great in medium term, but yield seems good and the area is quite stable - which is important as I'm a conservative risk taker.
 
Hard to see any regionals or country towns going up quickly if at all going forward.

What's gunna drive the growth?

All the kids are leaving to pursue careers in the big smoke, the farms are either closing or being steadily mechanised and the kids of the farmers have no interest in following mum and dad, so they are employing less.

Almost all the immigrants try to live in the cities.

Places like Ballarat - which I go past on regularly basis - are probably only doing ok because the commute to Melb has shortened due to the freeway improvements.
 
travelbug said:
I have a house in Albury and I can't see it going anywhere.

Others disagree with me and advise me to wait. I'm thinking of getting out of there.
The only reason I'm not selling now is that it's costing me nothing to hold. But can't see the point really.

What's going to drive the growth? Population growth forcasts are only 1.65%pa.
Click to expand...

During a boom , fundamentals have nothing to do with price rises.

Cliff
 
Plenty of new houses, supermarkets, hardware stores, etc., going up in Orange and Bathurst. The towns themselves seem pretty vibrant.

Having said that, prices in Orange are all over the place. Main problem seems to be bank valuations coming in low, not sure why. I know a few people who have listed at what seemed like a fair market value, got offers, agreed on price, then the buyer's bank valuation came back 60-80k lower. No idea why.

Could be the DOH selling off houses in the rougher parts of town bringing down average sale prices, but surely a) a bank should know the difference between a normal sale and sale with conditions attached (can't rent DOH houses out, must stay there for 7 years) and b) DOH sales shouldn't be included in comparative sales data for better parts of town?

Don't know if the same thing is happening in Bathurst or not.

I reckon any spill over CG from Sydney won't be for 12 months anyway.
 
luce.rocks said:
I reckon any spill over CG from Sydney won't be for 12 months anyway.
Click to expand...


yeah I reckon bathurst will be 12 months away too, however, its another area in itself so its not going to boom like west syd unfortuantely,
same goes with dubbo and wagga

and followed by dubbo and wagga, I think the fundamentals are there. good infrastrucute, council being proactive, increasing population but not booming

but yes, all the young ones wanting to move to the city,

and yes during a boom, fundamentals dotn matter, but I think once the irrationals disappear, you will either retreat or be flat, a bit like a 1-2 party mining town

yeah, ballarat is a large town in itself, and it looks like prices will or are about to start moving, most of the cheapies seem to have disappeared, but no buzzing in the area like outer BNE
 
luce.rocks said:
Plenty of new houses, supermarkets, hardware stores, etc., going up in Orange and Bathurst. The towns themselves seem pretty vibrant.

Having said that, prices in Orange are all over the place. Main problem seems to be bank valuations coming in low, not sure why. I know a few people who have listed at what seemed like a fair market value, got offers, agreed on price, then the buyer's bank valuation came back 60-80k lower. No idea why.

Could be the DOH selling off houses in the rougher parts of town bringing down average sale prices, but surely a) a bank should know the difference between a normal sale and sale with conditions attached (can't rent DOH houses out, must stay there for 7 years) and b) DOH sales shouldn't be included in comparative sales data for better parts of town?

Don't know if the same thing is happening in Bathurst or not.

I reckon any spill over CG from Sydney won't be for 12 months anyway.
Click to expand...

Then we have been lucky. Just revalued our Orange investment and thought we would have a fight on our hands. Turns out we have done extremely well in the 30 months on paper.

Personally I think values may be perceived as dropping in Orange (rentals and sales) because too many people brought the land and house packages up north for silly prices and then expected the boom to continue.

Too many similar houses all on small parcels of land coming onto the market at the same time never bodes well.
 
Interesting thread.

I always think that if you can afford to buy and hold properties in regional areas over time you will have to do well. They might not pull any amazing growth figures, but if you can average 2 or 3% growth over 15 years you've made good money if you have enough of them. Once they get into positive territory (if they aren't already) use the cash to pay off some debt and it should be a nice little nest egg for when you're old and grey.

10 properties @ $250,000 x 3% x 15 years = $3.89 mill - $2.5 mill debt (not inc. buying costs). You're still $1.39 mill better off than you were by doing nothing. Perhaps this is a simplistic view??

I would think big regionals like bathurst, wagga, orange, Armidale/Tamworth would be reasonable long term propositions?

Am I wrong? Love to hear others' thoughts because this is something I've thought greatly about.
 
We purchased our first IP in Wagga and I'm starting to think that maybe it wasn't the smartest idea, especially to start with, as it seems like CG will be very slow and impact on our ability to purchase more IPs without having to save deposits ourselves. I'm hoping our PPOR may balance this out but it's hard to tell.
 
I took a gamble on a West Wodonga old house (230K returning $275 pw)
Reasons?
1. Multi economy - Defense, Uni, Hospitals and other supporting business
2. Self sufficient region
3. Independent from Sydney or Vic house prices
4. Hasn't moved up for last 10 years
5. There is a rail link
6. Terry Ryder's top hotspot
7. Margaret Lomas's list.
 
devank said:
I took a gamble on a West Wodonga old house (230K returning $275 pw)
Reasons?
1. Multi economy - Defense, Uni, Hospitals and other supporting business
2. Self sufficient region
3. Independent from Sydney or Vic house prices
4. Hasn't moved up for last 10 years
5. There is a rail link
6. Terry Ryder's top hotspot
7. Margaret Lomas's list.
Click to expand...

unfortuantely, suburbs mentioend by those two include, melton, moree, la trobe valley, warrnambool, wagga, ballarat, wodonga,

and NONE have done anything, some have even gone backwards......so much for experts and their hotspots

cimbom, I dont think your wagga one is a dud, who knows, in 12 months time there may be a mini boom where the % CG would be good even though the absolute CG will be small,

and Ive learnt that the regionals are a bit slower and always under the radar, but this could just be because the regionals havent done much whilst nearby in sydney everything seems to be booming so it is hard to keep an objective eye on it,

wasnt there some guy on here a while ago that bought like 10 blocks of cheap land in wagga?

Allgood said:
Interesting thread.

I always think that if you can afford to buy and hold properties in regional areas over time you will have to do well. They might not pull any amazing growth figures, but if you can average 2 or 3% growth over 15 years you've made good money if you have enough of them. Once they get into positive territory (if they aren't already) use the cash to pay off some debt and it should be a nice little nest egg for when you're old and grey.

10 properties @ $250,000 x 3% x 15 years = $3.89 mill - $2.5 mill debt (not inc. buying costs). You're still $1.39 mill better off than you were by doing nothing. Perhaps this is a simplistic view??

I would think big regionals like bathurst, wagga, orange, Armidale/Tamworth would be reasonable long term propositions?

Am I wrong? Love to hear others' thoughts because this is something I've thought greatly about.
Click to expand...


the question is, opportintuy cost, I doubt any of these regionals will go backwards however, you could have made more money or the same putting the $ into ubank for example with less stress

as an investor, I am in it for the long run, but I am looking for well above average growth over the entire cycle, or unless my strategy is buy at the start of a boom, wait for short term growth and sell or refinance(but thats another story). Anything at less or the same as average growth to me is a not very good investment in my eyes

Im in it to win it
 
I hope you're right TMNT. It would be good if the gov't would move into the current century and build the high speed rail they keep mentioning at regular intervals. We'd see great CG then, I'm sure :)
 
the question is, opportintuy cost, I doubt any of these regionals will go backwards however, you could have made more money or the same putting the $ into ubank for example with less stress


If you put the deposit in the bank, 500k, after tax on interest you would only be getting about 15k per year or 250k after 15years. With inflation the buying power of your 750k would be half your original 500k. If you borrowed all the money and had nothing to put in the bank you would still have nothing in the bank after 15 years. If you borrowed all the money, 2.5m and put it in a bank after 15 years the balance on the loan would be higher than the balance of the investment.
 
buster said:
the question is, opportintuy cost, I doubt any of these regionals will go backwards however, you could have made more money or the same putting the $ into ubank for example with less stress


If you put the deposit in the bank, 500k, after tax on interest you would only be getting about 15k per year or 250k after 15years. With inflation the buying power of your 750k would be half your original 500k. If you borrowed all the money and had nothing to put in the bank you would still have nothing in the bank after 15 years. If you borrowed all the money, 2.5m and put it in a bank after 15 years the balance on the loan would be higher than the balance of the investment.
Click to expand...

well yes you are spot on!
 
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