Steve Navra (on Dollar Cost Trading shares) at SIG

[geoffw]

My attendance record at SIG is terrible - its very rare I can manage a Tue night :/ Sorry guys, Im out again

Your addiction to white powder is costing you

 

[XBenX]

Not this time Geoff!!!

Although the Tirol did get another great dump on the weekend - 1m+

Shame Im back in Syd.

The water was warm and the sun was out though.

Tuesday's are basketball - cant change either :/

 

[Peter 14.7]

Seems the usual "Gunnas" have fallen over again

With one day to go we have seats for around 15 for ask any firends and such.

Remember cheap food at the pub and some social interaction as well.

Peter 147

 

[Glebe]

So Glebe can't make it to Glebe?

Nope, seeing comedian Steven Wright at Newtown with a friend.

 

[Alan H]

One more please.............

 

[combobox]

apology as things coming up: Me & wife cannot attend the meeting :-(

 

[NigelW]

Peter

Sorry but I have to move from the definite to the maybe coming if I can...it's been a long week and it's only Tuesday...

Cheers
N.

 

[ani]

last minute cancellation from me too

ani

 

[Peter 14.7]

Dear All SIG Followers

Following on the recent huge response to Steve Navra talk on Property Investment and recent interest in the concept of Dollar Cost Trading Steve has been invited to talk about this concept at the next SIG.

Who: Steve Navra

What: Dollar Cost Trading (share trading)

What will he do and how long: Assume an hour and a half, powerpoint presentation, including a full share DCT demo will be the go.

Where: Roxby Hotel, 172 St Johns Road Glebe. Food and drink available to purchase in dinner and can be taken up to the room.

When: Tuesday 12th April (subject to confirmation by pub)

Time: 7:15pm for 7:30pm sharp start.

Numbers: limited to eighty (80) attendees

How to book: Post your name and number of attendees (limit of four per member) here on this thread.

No other places or PM’s. Seating available for first 65.

Cost: Free

Want to know more about the subject:

As written by Steve in http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19803

In its absolute simplicity the quantitative DCT approach suggests that, as the share price of a quality blue chip share declines, so the share represents a better purchase value opportunity (the share is cheaper). The reverse applies; so as the share price increases in value, it will represent an increased potential for profit taking.

Dollar Cost Trading involves buying potential value at the lower points and frequently locking in gains by selling at higher points, thus maximising the potential from share price volatility. The NavTraDE investment management system quantifies what constitutes relatively low and high points in the actual share price.

It makes intuitive sense to buy shares in quality companies when the share price is falling and to sell when the share price is rising. However, it may take considerable time for share prices to recover to previous levels and beyond. Therefore the full benefits of Dollar Cost Trading will be realised over the medium to long term.

Dollar Cost Trading differs from Dollar Cost Averaging as the latter is only an averaging technique, as its very name evidences. Dollar Cost Averaging does not attempt to identify low and high points but simply involves a set amount being used to purchase shares at regular time intervals.

In the simplest terms then:

• Identify strong and stable Blue Chip Companies.

• Without trying to second guess the market, you would buy when the shares are cheap (Value) and sell when higher to lock in the profit.

• This process of selling at a price higher than the purchase price creates realized gains which are then paid out to the investor as a quarterly distribution. (Income)

• The distributions are remarkably consistent, because they are realized as a result of the overall volatility of all the ‘Blue Chip’ shares in the portfolio.

• It doesn’t matter if the market is going up or down; there always is price fluctuation and thus volatility.

• Even if a share plunges say 20%, there will still be opportunity to trade at the bottom; please refer to the attached file for the example. (Which speaks for itself)

• Furthermore it doesn’t matter even if one is fully in a share and cannot buy more because one has reached the trade limit (10% max or no more available cash); there will still be price volatility at that level and hence trading is still possible. (Value add)

Regards to all, Peter 147

Calling all Sydney Newbies.

Welcome to come. It is tonight.

Peter 147

 

[qaz]

I won't be able to make it . Please cancel my booking. Thanks

 

[Sim]

I got a message from a user called ToBeFree who wants to go but was having problems posting a reply. I tried to respond by email, but I can't right now - so I figured I'd just post here instead - Peter147 ... please reserve a seat (or two ??) for ToBeFree.

 

[AdamN]

Thanks to Peter for arranging tonight and Steve for giving the presentation. Was great to finally put voices and faces to names.
Email is on the way Steve.
Thanks again.

Ad(ios).

 

[kissfan]

Hi all.

Just posting this hoping to prompt a response from anyone who attended last nights gathering. Please spill the beans on what transpired for all of us that were unfortunately unable to attend.

Regards
Marty

 

[Peter 14.7]

Hi all.

Just posting this hoping to prompt a response from anyone who attended last nights gathering. Please spill the beans on what transpired for all of us that were unfortunately unable to attend.

Regards
Marty

Steve told us 5 great share tips to buy today to make 15% in a week. I wrote it down somewehere.....

Peter 147

 

[AdamN]

Hi all.

Just posting this hoping to prompt a response from anyone who attended last nights gathering. Please spill the beans on what transpired for all of us that were unfortunately unable to attend.

Regards
Marty

I jotted down a few notes which I'll try and post in the next day or so, but I'd say the majority of it would already be on the NI website and PDS.

Ad(ios).

 

[AdamN]

I jotted down a few notes which I'll try and post in the next day or so, but I'd say the majority of it would already be on the NI website and PDS.

Ad(ios).

OK, here is a brief spiel of what I absorbed last night :
---
Most of the tools and methods implemented by most fund managers are predictive. i.e they look for trends, use indicators, put alot of weight on technical analysis, etc. This is not a good approach as they do not cater for sudden market disturbances such as 9/11, SARS, Middle East chaos, etc.

Instead, Steve uses a more reactive approach for the management of the NI fund. i.e they respond to what the market is doing by making decisions on the actual value of a share at any given point in time.

Most managed funds, super funds, etc, work on the Dollar Cost Average principle. It is a buy and hold approach where the fund manager will purchase units on your behalf at set intervals - regardless of whether the share is high or low.

Alternatively, Steve's NI Fund works on the Dollar Cost Trading principle. It is more of an active trade approach instead of pure buy and hold. The trading is done in contrary to the herd mentality (as Steve put it), where he buys on the way down (when everyone else is selling) and conversely, sells on the way up (where there are lots of buyers). This has proven to be a far more successful approach over time for Steve than traditional buy and hold.

NI implements a stringent 6 filter process before deciding on which stocks to invest in. Candidate stocks are taken from the ASX S&P 200 Index.
Filter 1 : General company health check, leaving 99 possible stocks left. So over half the candidates discounted after the first filter.
Filter 2 : Company outlook, leaving 92 stocks left.
Fliter 3 : Market Capitalisation of >$1.1Bil, leaving 48 stocks left
Filter 4 : Financially Robust, leaving 36 stocks left
Filter 5 : Diversification over different sectors
Filter 6 : Portfolio of 25 stocks to select from

2 key issues that stood out to me as Steve was going through the filters were that cohesive and stable company boards are paramount in the selection process (contributing factor as to why NAB was dropped), as is the debt / equity ratio (One.Tel had borrowed all its capital and owned nothing, therefore infinite debt / equity ratio).

Steve also doesn't invest in Telstra due to the part-government ownership. i.e if the government decides that all country subs should have broadband access, then Telstra must comply with the roll out, meaning large scale spending, resulting in less profits for shareholders.
---
That was all the notes I took and I had to leave before the end of question time, so hopefully others can fill in the rest.

Ad(ios).

 

[Theresa]

Thanks to Peter 147 for organising Tuesday night, had a great night and enjoyed Steve's presentation.
regards
Theresa