Sydney's struggle street

Very interesting article on Kellyville, Sydney.

I cannot believe people would pay almost 1 mill at Kellyville. Was the market THAT OVERHEATED at that time? Or was it all part of those real estate seminar scams?

I need to drive to Seymour Way this week to see the houses for myself.

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http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/sydneys-struggle-street/2008/02/09/1202234226918.html

Sydney's struggle street
Maxine Frith | February 10, 2008

WELCOME to the new Struggle Street - the middle class, suburban Sydney road where four houses in a row of six have been repossessed within 10 months of each other.

Seymour Way in Kellyville is a snapshot of how the home loan crisis is moving out of traditional lower-income hot spots and into the McMansions of Middle Australia.

One expert warned that a combination of rising interest rates, stagnating house prices and irresponsible lending had created a "time bomb of loans that is probably going to implode".

First to suffer in Seymour Way was No.48, a four-bedroom, two-bathroom detached property bought for $950,000 in August 2005. It was sold in January 2007 for just $490,000 by First Mortgage Company, which had won a repossession order.

Experts believe that, like the other houses involved, the home was massively overvalued at the time. They say many loans are financed by shonky mortgage brokers who get a commission based on the value of property - so they have a vested interest in ramping up the price.

Second to go was No.42. Again it was bought for $950,000 in September 2005 and sold under order of repossession for $490,000 in March last year - again with the same mortgage company as creditor.

Next door, No.4 was bought in September 2003 for $780,000. Last April it sold for $502,500, with the Perpetual Ltd company as the owner since it had been repossessed.

No.52 became repossession No.4. Bought in September 2003 for $780,000, it was sold last October for $532,000 on the orders of the Rock Building Society.

Shaun Crockford, manager of L.J. Hooker Kellyville, the real-estate agent that oversaw last year's sale of No.42, said: "If we had been the agents [at the time of the 2005 sale] there is no way we would have expected those houses to sell at that price. They were not worth that."

Mr Crockford said some brokers were conducting "drive-by valuations", which were not giving a realistic estimate of what a home was worth.

The consumer campaign group Choice wants to see national regulation of mortgage brokers and an end to the practice of commissions linked to the value of the property.

A draft bill on federal regulation is out to consultation at the moment but does not have the backing of the Finance Brokers Association of Australia, which says it will not stop dodgy brokers and will create too much paperwork to be workable.

Peter White, national president of the FBAA, said: "One of our big issues is that the legislation will create an anti-competitive environment. We are not against national regulation but it has got to be right.

"In any environment, those that want to do the wrong thing will do it - legislation won't stop them," he said.

Another issue is the increase by 26 per cent last year of low-documentation loans that are approved by fringe lenders and mainstream banks. They were designed for self-employed people who did not have pay slips, but they have been increasingly used to approve loans for people on low incomes who cannot repay loans.
 
not being from sydney - and not knowing where kellyville is ... i do wonder why the article is expounding the "overvaluation by brokers" line.

if properties were selling on the open market in 2003 for high $700's, then why would similar properties not be selling for mid $900's 2 years later ($150k more)?

but that is the beauty of an open market - no body dictates the prices except the buyer. not the broker or financier or valuer.

i also wonder why they are selling for so low now when you can barely buy a block of land in sydney for under $300,000 - and to build/landscape a 4/2 house would be around $300,00+ - selling for below replacement value.

i don't disagree that the overextended middle class are going to be hit if interest rates go over 10% - trying to set us up so we're not one of them!
 
For this exact reason, any new property I am buying has only a 5%-10% deposit via a reputable bank or financial institution. This means a mortage insurer is involved and they will value the property conservatively and in a sense they are also taking a risk....but they probably do a better job than me because they have become incredibly conservative. If the valuation stacks up I proceed otherwise, if not I do not proceed with the sale or renegotiate price to the valuation. This is always in my sales contracts - subject to finance and valuation.

I think a lot of people were desperate to get into housing and ended up paying too much. I agree that you can't build at the 490k price today....thus why my point that newer housing in your standard mom and pop suburbs are overpriced but the older stuff is a bargain.

Unfortuntely, as I have said before this happens in every cycle! :D:D

not being from sydney - and not knowing where kellyville is ... i do wonder why the article is expounding the "overvaluation by brokers" line.

if properties were selling on the open market in 2003 for high $700's, then why would similar properties not be selling for mid $900's 2 years later ($150k more)?

but that is the beauty of an open market - no body dictates the prices except the buyer. not the broker or financier or valuer.

i also wonder why they are selling for so low now when you can barely buy a block of land in sydney for under $300,000 - and to build/landscape a 4/2 house would be around $300,00+ - selling for below replacement value.

i don't disagree that the overextended middle class are going to be hit if interest rates go over 10% - trying to set us up so we're not one of them!
 
For this exact reason, any new property I am buying has only a 5%-10% deposit via a reputable bank or financial institution. This means a mortage insurer is involved and they will value the property conservatively and in a sense they are also taking a risk....but they probably do a better job than me because they have become incredibly conservative. If the valuation stacks up I proceed otherwise, if not I do not proceed with the sale or renegotiate price to the valuation. This is always in my sales contracts - subject to finance and valuation.

Isn't LMI quite an expensive price for what is basically a second valuation? Why not just pay for a second valuation yourself?
Alex
 
That street is next to my street for my IP in Kellyville :rolleyes:

The 950k price is way overpriced.
But the 490k price is also a bargain....
Realistically these properties should be around 520 to 550k.

Nevertheless an interesting article.

BTW - You can now get rent of around 520 to 550pw there - so the rental reality looks pretty good right now.
 
Alex,

I serves a dual purpose....I don't like tying up equity...and also get a conservative valuation.

Like you I am waiting to buy in shortly......:D



Isn't LMI quite an expensive price for what is basically a second valuation? Why not just pay for a second valuation yourself?
Alex
 
I serves a dual purpose....I don't like tying up equity...and also get a conservative valuation.

I just find LMI expensive. I also use 80% LVR as a ceiling for myself so that I don't go too crazy with loans. Horses for courses.
Alex
 
http://reports.rpdata.com.au/cgi-bi...n=4200112&iregion=4200112&insuburb=Kellyville

Have a look at the report from RPDATA on Kellyville house prices. The median price for houses for 2003 - 2008 is 500-600K ........ In fact, it fell between 2003 - 2005. So I don't understand why someone would pay almost 1 million for those houses in year 2005 when the prices already have stabilised and/or falling.

The buyers must have done zero due diligence ..... Can't they even look at the internet to see what the market is like at that time?
 
Alex

So is tying up 35k-40k in equity....on a 170k home (I typically buy cheapies) I am paying about $1800 in LMI....but I get a 41.5% tax deduction over 5 years so it is only costng me about $1050 and only have to tie up about 10k -15k as a deposit

Used to do the 20% deposits till I saw there are better ways to do this. If you look at the opportunity cost of this money it could be better utilised. I am sold on the OPM concept.

More deductible debt, lower risk via conservative vals...life doesn't get any better.

Also, I know this is going to open a can of worms but when you put down 20% a lot of banks just do a drive by valuation. Additionally, believe it or not banks feel alot more comfortable when the client has LMI as they are covered....PMI or GE have to pay them if you default and then they chase you! Incredulous isn't it!


Sash :D:D

I just find LMI expensive. I also use 80% LVR as a ceiling for myself so that I don't go too crazy with loans. Horses for courses.
Alex
 
So is tying up 35k-40k in equity....on a 170k home (I typically buy cheapies) I am paying about $1800 in LMI....but I get a 41.5% tax deduction over 5 years so it is only costng me about $1050 and only have to tie up about 10k -15k as a deposit

Depends on how much equity you have to work with, I suppose. I don't trust myself to go above 80% LVR. Too tempting.
Alex
 
Hmmm......Alex I will leave you to work the trust issues with your alter ego....lol. ;)

On a more serious note ....like you said horses for courses.....there are many paths to Rome....you just have to be careful along the road you take! :D

I think we are living in interesting times....perhaps on the cusp of the greatest boom in history! So these rate rises maybe just a blip on the horizon!

Lets hope it is not the old curse: "May you live in interesting times!" :D

Depends on how much equity you have to work with, I suppose. I don't trust myself to go above 80% LVR. Too tempting.
Alex
 
hahaha... i live in castle hill, so kellyville is on my backdoor.... and i cannot believe that any SANE person would have spent nearly a million bucks to live in a 4b/2b house in Kellyville!! Probably on a 450-500sq.m block too.

Kellyville is the definition of McMansions. HUUUGE houses on teeny weeny blocks of land, the council there allows you to build on almost the entire block.

It just goes to show that stupidity in buying homes isnt restricted to the lower demographics in our society :)
 
Its the old aspirational class buying more than they can afford on debt.

Kellyville and the newer estates in the Hills district (and to a lesser extent SW & W Sydney) are the absolute definition of Johnny Howard's aspirational voters.

"Look at my house & car guys, aren't they great" "Just don't mention the debt, ok"

You can tell by the high level Commodores and Toyotas in the driveways. Not Beemers or Mercs. Its a dead giveaway and theres a lot of pain out there with more to come i reckon.

As a side note the RBA should just hit em hard with a 0.5% or 0.75% interest rate hike and be done with it. They obviously aren't getting the message fropm a series of 0.25% hikes.

If it pushes us into recession (with the sub prime crisis) big deal. We need a bloody shakeout lol.

Well, not me, i have no debt but you know what i mean. Everyone else. :)





hahaha... i live in castle hill, so kellyville is on my backdoor.... and i cannot believe that any SANE person would have spent nearly a million bucks to live in a 4b/2b house in Kellyville!! Probably on a 450-500sq.m block too.

Kellyville is the definition of McMansions. HUUUGE houses on teeny weeny blocks of land, the council there allows you to build on almost the entire block.

It just goes to show that stupidity in buying homes isnt restricted to the lower demographics in our society :)
 
Totally agree with you - too many people have got bezerk on debt spending, and need a swift 1% IR rise to kick them up the ar$e and teach them a lesson..... which will leave us investors with some awesome deals to snatch up :)

Its a win-win!!!
 
Totally agree with you - too many people have got bezerk on debt spending, and need a swift 1% IR rise to kick them up the ar$e and teach them a lesson..... which will leave us investors with some awesome deals to snatch up :)

Its a win-win!!!

Is it really a win win?

I feel for all the people who don't earn as much and ended up having their homes sold because of interest rate rises. A lot of these are actually out of their control (well with hindsight we can all tell them to fix their low interest rate for 10 years+ but that is another topic altogether).

Remember a big factor in interest rate rises comes from the people in the top end (probably baby boomers) spending a lot of money and they dont care less about interested rates. Also the sub-prime factor causes banks to raise additional interest rates. Not to mention the rise of cost of petrol, food, etc etc etc. A lot of these are not related to what they do. Maybe they do save 20% deposit and do all due diligence (eg NSW government promises the train line etc) but all the cost squeeze force them to sell their homes.

At the end it is always the low and middle class that gets squeezed.
 
i was kinda being sarcastic :p
im not really that silly!

Oh OK :)

Sort of of related to this topic. A couple of weeks ago, I went to "new" Rouse Hill (next suburb from Kellyville) and had a look at their land and house offerings, just for curiousity. They are selling 280 - 390m2 blocks from 250K - 400k+. That is just crazy. Not to mention the cost of the house and you end up paying like 700K for a house on a very small block of land very far from Sydney. They could just buy those in Kellyville at a much cheaper price ...... Another thing, their 2 bedrooms units are selling for 400K+ ...... Makes no sense at all .....

I asked them where the closest train station is they said it is 5-10 minutes drive from Schofields ....... And they said anyone who buys house at "new" Rouse Hill would require to pay a community levy starting about $250 per quarter .... Their shopping centre looks good but not many people go there ......

These days developers are just selling TINY blocks miles away just to recoup the money ..... I really hope those "aspirational voters" don't fall for that.
 
Mate , i agree with what your saying but i think you might be missing the bigger picture. If they don't have a bit of a shake out now its going to be much worse a bit further down the road.

Probably a full blown recession, which is much more painful to the "low and middle classes."

Is it really a win win?
 
hahaha... i live in castle hill, so kellyville is on my backdoor.... and i cannot believe that any SANE person would have spent nearly a million bucks to live in a 4b/2b house in Kellyville!! Probably on a 450-500sq.m block too.

Kellyville is the definition of McMansions. HUUUGE houses on teeny weeny blocks of land, the council there allows you to build on almost the entire block.

It just goes to show that stupidity in buying homes isnt restricted to the lower demographics in our society :)

I think the houses are all owned by people with the surname: "Jones."
 
I saw this article and, being a local myself, was amazed that the vals came in so high back in 2005. Nice Billyard built homes but definitely overvalued! However, when you look at the history the fact that no. 48 sold first in Aug for $950K a lazy valuer would have used it as a direct comparable sale when assessing no. 42, especially as it sold only a mere mth later. A naive buyer at the time (who didn't do their homework) was the unfortunate party here, as were the purchasers of 48- how much due diligence did they engage in?

The winner out of these sales was definitely the vendor - same vendor for both 42 and 48... interesting.
 
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