is that the property market is at an all time low. The good news is it might be reaching the bottom http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...rate-for-a-spring-revival-20120928-26qjp.html
The Bad News or umm good News?...
- Thread starter rachels
- Start date
"It's not about timing the market... It's about time in the market."
Timing is critical when you're buying near the top of the market like now when the bubble has just started to burst.
Based on historic patterns if you had bought at anytime in the last 12 years and had held for at least 5 years without selling when markets retraced you would have made money.
So there's a bubble? And you know it's bursting? Please teach me your secrets
So there's a bubble? And you know it's bursting? Please teach me your secrets
Rents are still high so that is all that I care for at least for now.
No secret, your graph says it all, unsustainable growth through a credit bubble. Now that's ended and prices will correct to long term averages as they have everywhere else around the world. Just 2 or 3 property bubbles left to burst, Australia included.So there's a bubble? And you know it's bursting? Please teach me your secrets
And the OCR is expected to be reduced by as much as 1% by Jan 2013, meaning even better yields.
If the long term average in australia is what its going to revert to...then we can all rest easy.
The long term "has been" quite friendly,
Why the fuss?
because that long term average is about 20-30% lower than where prices are now.
I thought you were refferring to long term average "growth".
This has been friendly long term in Australia.
what average are you refferring to?
Long term average Price. Of course a return to mean could comprise of only a 15% fall over 5 years against a 15% rise in that long term average price.
If there is a bubble, Australia arguably has enough room to adjust fiscal policy to stem house price hemorrhaging if it indeed occurs.
While I do agree that some markets are overpriced and will continue to face correction, I disagree that this perspective represents the overall market. Australia is underpinned by several key fundamentals such as unemployment levels, population growth, GDP/Debt ratio and the current inflation level which all support foreseeable low to moderate economic growth. Added to this the RBA is thinking of relaxing monetary policy further to make the situation even better.
Unlike the rest of the western world, being the UK, USA and Japan we have completely different regulations when it comes to housing debt. I don't understand how anyone can think that the intrinsic value of our housing stock has diverged more than 20% unless they don't understand that we don't have government backed mortgages and a large amount of mortgage debt derivatives.
We've had three years of bad news in the media. The Westpac CCI has shown confidence is still about the same as in the GFC which means demand for housing has been low enough to pull back prices already. We're still being very cautious as a consumer country despite more and more good economic news, so if prices were going to plummet one would have expected that to happen already.
The facts currently are:
Borrowing money is very cheap
Many markets have retraced
We have sound economic footing
This isn't some South Sea Scheme :\
We should be buying now and not worrying about if property is going to fall more because even if it does, if property stays in line with the historic trend, in the long term there are profits.
i know this is said a lot but i do disagree
i think nowadays you have to be more nimble/selective/proactive then simply buying something irregardless of where we are in the cycle and waiting til it comes good
I think it's more to do with timing your time in the market too.
