The Bad News or umm good News?...

[Jake Milne]

i know this is said a lot but i do disagree

i think nowadays you have to be more nimble/selective/proactive then simply buying something irregardless of where we are in the cycle and waiting til it comes good

Completely agree that if one is to make the most of their investment selecting quality stock at the right time in the right place is a must.

That might sound hypocritical to the quote posted previously but the old adage is also true. If you're in the market long enough you'll weather the storms and should see growth.

We as investors obviously aren't looking for your average returns and want more. We therefore put a lot more thought into purchases. With that said my point in posting the quote was simply to not worry about a "bubble" because if it does happen there's always time for it to recover.

 

[starbright]

I don't think prices will crash this cycle as the rba still has room to adjust. If you look at housing crashes around the world it's been in countries where the rate is effectively 0% as there is no more stimulus possible, plus some bad lending on the side. The question is whether Australia will get to 0% next cycle as rates have had to be cut lower and lower than the previous cycle to provide the same or similar level of stimulus, or whether the recovery of US/Europe/China in a few years is enough to offset any slowdown we have to not warrant 0% rates. It is not good news when you have zero rates, be careful what you wish for.

 

[hobo-jo]

Based on historic patterns if you had bought at anytime in the last 12 years and had held for at least 5 years without selling when markets retraced you would have made money.

Based on what calculations? Are you including stamp duty, holding & selling costs? Did the buyer negatively gear the property? In what bracket is their capital gains tax calculated? What city did they buy in?

Perth prices have been stagnant for roughly 6 years now, someone could still be under water having held for 5 years. I suspect many who bought Melbourne's peak will be underwater for 5 years from the top as well (let alone the holding costs).

Pretty broad statement.

 

[Jake Milne]

Yes, it was a broad statement.