Acey, as I said above, I was jesting, in an ironic way. It is more of a non sequitur to have facts about cause and effect in the future, then in the past, despite post hoc ergo propter hoc.
You once said I tend towards bearishness, and I'd agree with that to the extent that I believe when using leverage, managing risk (covering the downside) is everything. I consider PI a business. And there are examples of businesses getting debt/equity mixes wrong every week, and going bankrupt.
The weekend's AFR had a story about Don Williams of Platypus Long Only Australian Equity Fund, the best performing Aussie share fund last FY 43.7%. Don says his strategy is based on not buying into a stock until there is firm evidence there is a turnaround in its performance. He says they often miss a bit of growth, but they are less likely to get caught holding something that has further downside or lack of growth.
I think a similar approach is prudent with property. Though could be convinced otherwise.
Yes, my perspective has been sobered by the insecurities and uncertainties of my own potential post CFS, and a perspective richer for working in hospitals, where you get to see what a secular society, the media, and wealth creation gurus irrationally ignore.
Whether my perspective has irrational or rational bias, is dependent upon my consciousness' interpretation of how big a hole I believe my mind and body can work its way out of, if I fall into one.
So I would add this; that in taking on leverage and managing the risk associated with that, that many people would be better to first focus on setting a solid foundation to psychologically cope with that risk. IMHO, that might include:
- being in a secure relationship where there are two potential incomes. Being single and unable to rely on family in case you fall in a hole healthwise or financially loads the dice.
- knowing the boundaries that one's makeup and health imposes on one's capacity to handle physical, emotional, and psychological stress. and developing strategies to limit the perceived stress (financial education, exploring self awareness).
- having a supportive network of working friends, who fuel our confidence in feeling informed and connected about the world.
- being reconciled with one's own belief system, in a spiritual or big picture sense. If one is not, then it is so difficult to focus one's entire energy and attention onto anything. One will seek security in wealth, relationships, or whatever, but never escape the turmoil and dissonance within....
