The effect of Japan's neutralised economy.

[evand]

You maybe able to if it wasnt for the massive govt/RBA/ATO stimulus that drove a mini boom 09/10.

Instead that fall is being moved a few years later.

If I could find properties discounted by 30% from a say a year ago...I would be buying everyone that I could lay my hands on.

Alas....this is not the case.

 

[alexlee]

Admittedly, good rainfall in China is half the reason, but what's going on in Japan is the other half. Funny how markets react. What's happened in Japan could only mean more demand for food, not less, and especially if this nuclear nightmare eventuates, but anyhow, markets will just do what they do and it's no use complaining eh!

Japan is the worlds largest food importing nation, and can supply just 39% of their own needs, with the rest needing to be imported. A massive amount of food was destroyed in the flood.

I would have thought that's precisely it. Destruction of supply (droughts, destruction of farmland) would have a much greater impact than increased demand for food. Arguably, increased food demand from the people affected by the tsunami probably isn't that much compared to, say, increased consumption of meat in China.

 

[InnerWestie]

You maybe able to if it wasnt for the massive govt/RBA/ATO stimulus that drove a mini boom 09/10.

Instead that fall is being moved a few years later.

I don't get this line of thinking- surely stimulus is just a part of the Australian market, as is negative gearing? I can't see either changing any time soon.

I have no doubt that it had a stimulating effect on the Australian economy (hence the name) but what makes you think that similar measures won't be taken over the coming years if necessary. Sure, people will blab about higher lending costs but there wasn't exactly an abundance of funds floating about during the GFC either were there?

I am not saying it is necessarily right, but the Oz government and banks have an enormous vested interest in the stability of the property market. They have demonstrated in the past that they will implement necessary measures to ensure that it remains stable.

On this basis, I think a 30% drop is never going to happen in this cycle.

For those that think this is inevitable by the end of 2012, I surely hope that you have offloaded your resi property by now. If not, let us know if you want to sell any quality stuff for current value -15% on a 600 day settlement to anyone more optimistic on the forum. You can pay the potential buyer a non-refundable 5% reverse deposit as security? If the world doesn't go to hell and you want to pull out of the deal that's all you'll lose?

 

[Melbournian]

From the age

"New York-based GFT Forex currency specialist Kathy Lien said Japanese investors hold about $US60 billion in Australian assets, plus another $US15 billion of bonds denominated in Australian dollars but sold in Japan.

“There is a lot of Japanese money sitting outside of Japan and when a crisis like this hits, the natural inclination of many of those investors is to bring money home,” she said. “More de-leveraging and risk aversion means more weakness for the Australian dollar.

Ms Lien said if the Aussie falls through 97.8 US cents, it could drop to 95.6 US cents, a low not seen since November."

Damn-- Just when i was planning a holiday - Aussie dollar goes down. Either way thereare pros and cons to this.

 

[Wunderbar]

You knew just as well as all of us that the AUD's strength couldn't last forever

 

[Melbournian]

haha guess - i'll be taking some greeback notes from my commbank safe deposit box to fund the holiday.