I find Marcus Padley column is always worth a read, this weeks is no exception.... Trade secrets of a tycoon. It comes with the warning Do not try this at home.
Trade Secrets of a Tycoon.
- Thread starter keithj
- Start date
I enjoy his column, but find he flip-flops.
A few weeks back at the lows of the market he was basically writing that ppl should get out and not buy in. Two weeks later he wrote another article where the tone changed a lot!
Same as his late 2007/early 2008 articles.
Typical broker.
The richest man in England hey? There's some more secrets to be learnt from these richest men of England.......
- the Indian
- the Russian
- the Duke (no link required)
- the Indian
- the Russian
- the Duke (no link required)
Actually that's one thing I like about him - he has a sense of balance & can see the upside & the downside in most things.
And his sense of humour appeals to me.
Changing the subject a little, this morning on ABC radio Marcus said "it's now riskier to be bearish than it is to be bullish".
Not sure how serious he was??
Not sure how serious he was??
ASX to 4200-4400 is my call - i'd hate to be short on anything other than banks at present.
He does have his sense of humour.
The one about his mate on his (first) wedding day in the convertible was gold!
i'm not talking about a rally tomorrow to 4400.
i'm short banks AT THE MOMENT and expect the XAO to rally to 4400 in the medium term - should have clarified.
it's risky to be bearish because of the latest whipsaw- it could prove to be a small bull run in a bear market - it's met all the criteria for a start.
I have no idea where the market will go in to short term. I think its dangerous to try to predict this unless you are an expert trader.
However i do believe in the gravitational reversion to the mean of asset classes. Therefore given the severe pull back from 2007, i am VERY confident that over the next 10 years a broad portfolio of sound companies, or for those that doent have the time to research individual shares, an investment into an share index fund will achieve very satisfactory returns when purchased at around current levels. There is a good chance that in 10 years time when you look back shares will have been the top performing asset class.
However i do believe in the gravitational reversion to the mean of asset classes. Therefore given the severe pull back from 2007, i am VERY confident that over the next 10 years a broad portfolio of sound companies, or for those that doent have the time to research individual shares, an investment into an share index fund will achieve very satisfactory returns when purchased at around current levels. There is a good chance that in 10 years time when you look back shares will have been the top performing asset class.
Hey Keith, just caught up with a few more articles from Marcus PADLEY
here's a couple of interest for the forum
Agony Aunt
Systematic Trading Systems
There have been some nasty posts on the forum re: the worth of having Banks in your portfolio, but here's a nice example
Brain required
Food for thought and worth the read
here's a couple of interest for the forum
Agony Aunt
Systematic Trading Systems
There have been some nasty posts on the forum re: the worth of having Banks in your portfolio, but here's a nice example
Brain required
Food for thought and worth the read
i'm sorry guys but this guy is a major d**ck in my opinion.
If you are a trader he has some good insights, but if you are an investor he is a serious wealth hazard.
He sounds good, he is slick, he makes sense with an article, but then so do many journalists.
I receive his information as one of several sources that i get through my grapevine on either a daily or weekly basis.
As an investor i can guarantee you i wouldnt have made the returns ive made if i had listened to him through the last 18 months (and yes ive received his information over the last 18 months).
If you are a trader he has some good insights, but if you are an investor he is a serious wealth hazard.
He sounds good, he is slick, he makes sense with an article, but then so do many journalists.
I receive his information as one of several sources that i get through my grapevine on either a daily or weekly basis.
As an investor i can guarantee you i wouldnt have made the returns ive made if i had listened to him through the last 18 months (and yes ive received his information over the last 18 months).
but he's a guru chilliaa - don't you understand? 
just another incompetent book writer making idiotic statements to get people to discuss and buy his book.
and
How many went bankrupt because they owed too much money?
But of course he's an expert cause he wrote a book.
And soon will be doing seminars telling all & sundry how to get rich by not doing what he's doing for income.
He likes to mention a company's track record, but where can we find his track record?
There's plenty of his useless babble all over the abc lateline site.
---
oh look i found some of his record:
Marcus Padley
June 16, 2007
"As of next Friday they are going to close the sharemarket for 10 years. You have a week to get set. What are you going to buy? Here's my guess.
Resources — BHP, Rio, Fortescue, Gindalbie Metals, Woodside "
"BHP and Rio? Gone (if they haven't already gone). At huge premiums that imply a $300 price for Fortescue. But Andrew Forrest will have delivered Fortescue to the Chinese already, for $150. It will be another MIM, sold too cheap."
"Leighton Holdings is one of the few companies with the scale to operate in Asia — will flourish. Downer EDI and United Group are others."
"Investment banks? Presumably Macquarie Bank and Babcock & Brown will also one day find the commercial confidence to boldly rather than tentatively step into Asia."
"Let's have a few Worley Parsons and some of those Boart Longyear."
http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...r-10-years-time/2007/06/15/1181414546482.html
He's a fkn genius this guy!
Leverage up BIG, buy those stocks and close the ASX for 10 years!!!!!!!
I must apologize for referring to him as an incompetent idiot as I obviously way overstated his capabilities.
shame!, shame! shame!
This is what the media tells us is an "expert", where anybody following his advice would've been bankrupt.
But like media knows the average sucker has a short memory and research.
Please tel me who went bankrupt but owed nobody money?
and
How many went bankrupt because they owed too much money?
But of course he's an expert cause he wrote a book.
And soon will be doing seminars telling all & sundry how to get rich by not doing what he's doing for income.
He likes to mention a company's track record, but where can we find his track record?
There's plenty of his useless babble all over the abc lateline site.
---
oh look i found some of his record:
Marcus Padley
June 16, 2007
"As of next Friday they are going to close the sharemarket for 10 years. You have a week to get set. What are you going to buy? Here's my guess.
Resources — BHP, Rio, Fortescue, Gindalbie Metals, Woodside "
"BHP and Rio? Gone (if they haven't already gone). At huge premiums that imply a $300 price for Fortescue. But Andrew Forrest will have delivered Fortescue to the Chinese already, for $150. It will be another MIM, sold too cheap."
"Leighton Holdings is one of the few companies with the scale to operate in Asia — will flourish. Downer EDI and United Group are others."
"Investment banks? Presumably Macquarie Bank and Babcock & Brown will also one day find the commercial confidence to boldly rather than tentatively step into Asia."
"Let's have a few Worley Parsons and some of those Boart Longyear."
http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...r-10-years-time/2007/06/15/1181414546482.html
He's a fkn genius this guy!
Leverage up BIG, buy those stocks and close the ASX for 10 years!!!!!!!
I must apologize for referring to him as an incompetent idiot as I obviously way overstated his capabilities.
shame!, shame! shame!
This is what the media tells us is an "expert", where anybody following his advice would've been bankrupt.
But like media knows the average sucker has a short memory and research.
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Brokers churn stocks don't they
Anyhow, some write a good yarn and I'm partial to those
How has Gindalbie gone since this post?
How about BHP, Rio, Fortescue, Woodside ?
how about his 'model portfolios'.
They disapeared in 2011 after loosing money.
The first one is back in 2012: The income portfolio.
The guy is like any good broker, he is looking for a 'mechanism' to make easy money, gravitates between trading methods, to intrinsic value.
The problem is, in this market one needs conviction.. You get that conviction by doing your own homework, not by piggiebacking on some major historical school of thought. Without conviction, market volatility sees one constantly running to the exit (usually after a loss).
