What happened to the mining boom?

W

Weasil007

From the ANZ:

China’s combined coal imports in Sep showed a 22% y/y decline to 14.9mt. Thermal coal imports declined 18%y/y to 12.4mt in Sep 2011, while coking coal imports were harder hit, down 38% y/y to 2.4mt, highlighting the weak demand conditions. The rally in Newc-Sth China freight rates to USD14/t, with the capesize market buoying panamax rates, has reduced purchases for Australian thermal coal of 5500NAR quality. In Sep, Australian thermal coal exports to China fell 13% y/y to 2.4mt, an 11-month low. Although the biggest loser for China’s thermal coal imports appears to be Indonesia, posting a sharp 38% y/y drop to 4.1mt.
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I can't believe how quick the decline has been, I mean it seems like it was only a few months ago and it was mining to the moon...:eek:

Forget about a surplus it's gone! :(
 
iron ore price slips 25% and the world is gonna end.

you guys should listen to yourself.

BHP just built this - like, still putting the finishing touches on it.

images


last time i checked, private companies always bought the most expensive real estate, to put the biggest office towers on, to close up shop as soon as physically possible.... :rolleyes:
 
lol! I can't wait for Chevron to get one of the fancy buildings in Elizabeth Quay then go bust too :rolleyes:

Weasel - you do seem to specialise in collecting all the negative news articles.

As much as Australians like to think that we all live off the back of mining there is an awful lot left in the whole resources industry. Just because coal went down doesn't mean that the boom is over.

Read some LNG or O&G news articles and cheer up.

I'm going to sit here in my LNG ivory tower happy as larry http://www.energyglobal.com/sectors...s Satyr-4 well has confirmed gas pay_302.aspx
 
Parko said:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzLRocyhUIo

this should shock the crapper out of you! :eek:

and this is just a snippet of what's to come... google it for yourself...
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Not really.

....and yet they build a city the size of Perth each month for their urbanising population and need to build rail lines and power stations.

Some people are really glass half empty people.

What happens when the standard of living starts to pick up in China????

There's one billion + consumers. :eek:

Besides, I think the majority of people on here are smart enough and wise enough to know what's what. All this scaremongering BS is not really helpful. Almost reeks of tall poppy syndrome.

But you know what? One day, after you have kept up reading, thinking and saying negative things whilst seeing the world pass by, you'll end up being Steven Keen. Good luck.
 
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HotRod said:
Besides, I think the majority of people on here are smart enough and wise enough to know what's what. All this scaremongering BS is not really helpful. Almost reeks of tall poppy syndrome.
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China currently have enough empty housing to accomodate the polulation of said locale for the next 20 years...I suppose they can start tearing down the older empty buildings to build some new ones to keep everything ticking over OR the slow down we are seeing in China (and our mining bang, sorry boom) is symptamatic of their failed policies that are now cathing up with them as a result of the slow down in Europe. Or it could just be tall poppy syndrome..:(
 
Weasil007 said:
China currently have enough empty housing to accomodate the polulation of said locale for the next 20 years...I suppose they can start tearing down the older empty buildings to build some new ones to keep everything ticking over OR the slow down we are seeing in China (and our mining bang, sorry boom) is symptamatic of their failed policies that are now cathing up with them as a result of the slow down in Europe. Or it could just be tall poppy syndrome..:(
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Reference please?
 
I don't know that it's "slowing" ... the mines are churning out record production.

However, the cost dropped significantly and then popped back up again to halfway between the low and previous high. It's a settling period after a crazy boom period.
 
lizzie said:
I don't know that it's "slowing" ... the mines are churning out record production.

However, the cost dropped significantly and then popped back up again to halfway between the low and previous high. It's a settling period after a crazy boom period.
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-18/mining-export-revenue-predicted-to-drop/4268070

Hi lizzie, you are correct on this. Prices are settling. The billion dollar question is do the prices now hold, rise or fall long term...

The BREE report indicates there are two distinct trends underpinning its latest forecasts - moderating commodity prices compared with the record highs of 2011, and rapidly growing export volumes as new projects come online.

The two factors work against each other to stabilise Australia's export earnings, although this year's results are still expected to be 2 per cent lower than the 2011-12 financial year and $20 billion lower than the most recent forecast in June.

It says the latest estimates are based on the International Monetary Fund's assumption of a "pick up" in world economy.

The bureau estimates Australia's thermal coal exports will increase by 12 per cent to 165 million tonnes in the 2012 calendar year on the back of stronger demand from China and India.

In 2013, that is expected to jump by a further 17 per cent to 192 million tonnes.
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We need china to stimulate or this is all redundant ?
 
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Weasil007 said:
Try this:

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/re...ly-actually-means-for-chinas-real-estate.html
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You are trying to support your claim that,

"China currently have enough empty housing to accomodate the polulation of said locale for the next 20 years"

with an opinion piece that includes this quote

"Our calculation shows that some potential resale of vacant units plus developers’ existing land banks should already be enough to satisfy 10 to 20 years’ housing demand"

Perhaps your goggles of gloom inhibit your reading ability.

You don't get to much correct.
 
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Weasil007 said:
We need china to stimulate or this is all redundant ?
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Interesting comment here that may put things into perspective for you.

The price China paid on average for its coking coal in September was $127.87 a tonne, down 24 percent from the $166.99 a tonne paid in January.

There may have been some build-up of coking coal inventories earlier in the year, creating an overhang of supplies that has allowed for weaker imports in recent months.

For instance, June imports were a record 6.49 million tonnes, up 94 percent from the same month a year earlier and, to put that number in perspective, it was just shy of the 6.85 million tonnes imported for the whole of 2008.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/26/column-russell-china-iron-coal-idUSL3E8LQ6ZP20121026
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Weasil007 said:
China currently have enough empty housing to accomodate the polulation of said locale for the next 20 years...I suppose they can start tearing down the older empty buildings to build some new ones to keep everything ticking over OR the slow down we are seeing in China (and our mining bang, sorry boom) is symptamatic of their failed policies that are now cathing up with them as a result of the slow down in Europe. Or it could just be tall poppy syndrome..:(
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or you're just not well read enough on the reasons why they are vacant, and why the central authority just dont care and will continue to build regardless, and why a communist regime that lends money to itself is not in debt.

food for thought.

maybe you should find these things out for yourself, rather than spout conjecture and hearsay from discredited economists whose actions speak louder (somehow) than their words.
 
Aaron Sice said:
or you're just not well read enough on the reasons why they are vacant, and why the central authority just dont care and will continue to build regardless, and why a communist regime that lends money to itself is not in debt.

food for thought.

maybe you should find these things out for yourself, rather than spout conjecture and hearsay from discredited economists whose actions speak louder (somehow) than their words.
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Maybe this is the reason they are vacant:confused:
As a result of the real estate boom, reports in Chinese media indicate that the average property in a top-tier Chinese city now costs between 15 and 20 times the average annual salary, though J.P. Morgan reports indicate something closer to 13. (For purposes of comparison, in most of the world's cities, the housing-cost-to-income ratio hovers between 3-to-1 and 6-to-1.)

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...tate-bubble-20121008-2795u.html#ixzz2AXfr3ee0

Happy to listen to your theories is there are other reasons :)
 
Weasil007 said:
As a result of the real estate boom, reports in Chinese media indicate that the average property in a top-tier Chinese city now costs between 15 and 20 times the average annual salary, though J.P. Morgan reports indicate something closer to 13. (For purposes of comparison, in most of the world's cities, the housing-cost-to-income ratio hovers between 3-to-1 and 6-to-1.)

Happy to listen to your theories is there are other reasons :)
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To be fair, you cannot compare developing countries real estate with developed. The average person does not live in the average dwelling. Many of the bottom rungs, indeed even average workers, live in workers accomodation or other arrangements not covered by the average dwelling price. There is little point comparing in developing countries average wage to average dwelling. It's relevance is only to developed countries where just about everyone lives in a standard "dwelling".

Clearly something is odd about the way China go about building stuff, but that said at least a lot of their stimulous went into roads, rail, ports, airports, dams, power stations and the likes.

I would sooner see overbuilding of economic infrastructure than overbuilding of school halls and insulation in every roof in the country. I know which one conventional economic wisdom says, leads to economic prosperity long term and it's not $1000.00 cash handouts...
 
tom32 said:
To be fair, you cannot compare developing countries real estate with developed. The average person does not live in the average dwelling. Many of the bottom rungs, indeed even average workers, live in workers accomodation or other arrangements not covered by the average dwelling price. There is little point comparing in developing countries average wage to average dwelling. It's relevance is only to developed countries where just about everyone lives in a standard "dwelling".
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Ok...discount the developed countries accepted rate of 3-1 or 6-1 and just work on the lower figure of 13-1. It doesn't matter what you compare it to..if the population cant afford to buy the property if won't sell. Wouldn't the gov there be better to build lower cost housing to accommodate these people at lower ratios of affordability ? Built houses of lower quality to equate with lower levels of income. If they currently live in a standard of housing that is below average (your assumption) why keep cranking out property people can't afford to buy. This just further feeds a housing bubble ;)

tom32 said:
Clearly something is odd about the way China go about building stuff, but that said at least a lot of their stimulous went into roads, rail, ports, airports, dams, power stations and the likes.
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Yeah it's real odd..to the point we are now seeing the effects of the odd way they went about it. Read that empty housing and un-used infrastructure on the back of declining GDP growth. The point is this housing and infrastructure is now built and in place. No further benefit here. With declining GDP growth this model is failing and was unsustainable from the start IMO..

tom32 said:
I would sooner see overbuilding of economic infrastructure than overbuilding of school halls and insulation in every roof in the country. I know which one conventional economic wisdom says, leads to economic prosperity long term and it's not $1000.00 cash handouts...
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We could only dream of over building of infrastructure in AUS ;) and I agree the recent stimulus methods here have been disastrous :(
 
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