Why 35%,there has been posters on this site for the last 4 years saying property will drop 30%-40%,the aussie share markets are down over 40% for the past year,interestingly property in some upmarket area's is still on the upward trend,some people use knowledge as therapy and don't listen to the media spinners..
What is the current public sentiment towards the housing market?
- Thread starter murrayo
- Start date
why not just whack a huge tax on surgical procedures and spawn a new health care industry whilst we are at it?
If property falls say an average of 4% per year over 4 years (2004 - 2008) plus the effects of inflation over the same 4 years at 3%-4%.
The end result is a loss in the vicinity of 25% - 30%.Its not hard to reach that figur and a lot of areas have done a lot worse than that.
The end result is a loss in the vicinity of 25% - 30%.Its not hard to reach that figur and a lot of areas have done a lot worse than that.
double post.
[/QUOTE]Originally Posted by Chatto
I would like to see emission trading go ahead and spur on new industries in renewables.
There is a serious reshuffling of cards going on now and the money waiting on the sides for the bottom will want to invest in stable long term investments, the tech bubble burst and now the financials bubble burst, there has to be new and inovative markets to drive wealth, renewables should play a part in that.?[/QUOTE]
Yes, I agree Ausprop. Hey, lets also tax exports out of existance as well. Don't need em. The aluminium smelting is better off in China. Get rid of the north west shelf energy industry, What good is it? Agriculture? Just destroys the environment. Lets put a woppin great tax on that too and get it out of the country.
We can import all our food. Import everything. Our whole economy could be based on financials and housing and retail and tourism. Woo Hoo. Just like the Poms.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24345942-5013404,00.html
........"THE Rudd Government's attempts to combat climate change through an emissions trading scheme will do more damage to the farming sector than the drought, senior industry figures warned yesterday.
The claims were made as new economic modelling showed farm profitability under the proposed trading scheme could drop to zero. The research by the Australian Farm Institute suggests that under an ETS, the $100 billion sector could be forced into debt, with livestock farms and smaller holdings worst affected".........
........"Under scenarios where farmers are required to pay the full cost of estimated farm emissions, the modelling projects farm profit reductions of more than 100 per cent, especially for farms running sheep and cattle," he said.
"The sector, which is fully trade-exposed, is going to be significantly impacted."
The institute's findings mirror recent modelling from New Zealand's Ministry of Agriculture, which showed profitability across all farm types plummeting under an ETS'........
........."We will be less competitive on world markets from 2010," Mr Cherry said. "With 70 per cent of agricultural produce exported, there is no opportunity to pass these costs on. It's going to cost a fortune. It is an insanity."............
See ya's.
I would like to see emission trading go ahead and spur on new industries in renewables.
There is a serious reshuffling of cards going on now and the money waiting on the sides for the bottom will want to invest in stable long term investments, the tech bubble burst and now the financials bubble burst, there has to be new and inovative markets to drive wealth, renewables should play a part in that.?[/QUOTE]
Yes, I agree Ausprop. Hey, lets also tax exports out of existance as well. Don't need em. The aluminium smelting is better off in China. Get rid of the north west shelf energy industry, What good is it? Agriculture? Just destroys the environment. Lets put a woppin great tax on that too and get it out of the country.
We can import all our food. Import everything. Our whole economy could be based on financials and housing and retail and tourism. Woo Hoo. Just like the Poms.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24345942-5013404,00.html
........"THE Rudd Government's attempts to combat climate change through an emissions trading scheme will do more damage to the farming sector than the drought, senior industry figures warned yesterday.
The claims were made as new economic modelling showed farm profitability under the proposed trading scheme could drop to zero. The research by the Australian Farm Institute suggests that under an ETS, the $100 billion sector could be forced into debt, with livestock farms and smaller holdings worst affected".........
........"Under scenarios where farmers are required to pay the full cost of estimated farm emissions, the modelling projects farm profit reductions of more than 100 per cent, especially for farms running sheep and cattle," he said.
"The sector, which is fully trade-exposed, is going to be significantly impacted."
The institute's findings mirror recent modelling from New Zealand's Ministry of Agriculture, which showed profitability across all farm types plummeting under an ETS'........
........."We will be less competitive on world markets from 2010," Mr Cherry said. "With 70 per cent of agricultural produce exported, there is no opportunity to pass these costs on. It's going to cost a fortune. It is an insanity."............
See ya's.
Only need to look at Japan on what will happen when they use rates cutting to revive the property and overall economy.
It's rate was zero long time ago.. with property market down 20 years. ... 80%. from the top.
Japan is also a good counter-example of the so called "supply-demand" bushit and Australia is "special". Their supply has been worse than Australia all along.
Australia also has the highest square meter floor space per capital and the lowest person per household. In other words, the current "demand" is also fueled by unrealistic size expectation (and location expectation) of a house. .. similar to US. With lowering these expectation to OECD average , the demand will be much lower.
umm please explain? Japan has a falling overall population?
regarding the question on sentiment, in the end of the day the vast majority of people when deciding whether to spend money look inward to that warm fuzzy feeling rather than clear headed rational thought process.
Sentiment right now is bad, across the board. Simply look at the westpac sentiment indicator... no good news there.
Stepping back from "sentiment" you should break down things simplistically. When people get off that fence and are deciding where to put their $1 do you think it will be shares? having fallen 40% from highs? or property which (rightly or wrongly) has a "safe as houses" linkage to it and more importantly hasn't fallen in price.
My sentiment is that things have a while to play out but property will come out on top for the next few years until once again (like in 2001) the tide turns to stocks again... and the cycle continues..
Unless you agree with Keen.. then i suggest investing in twigs, matches and a stone.. and find yourself a nice cave to live in.
2 questions....
So should we lower our expectations? and become a third world country..
Also, people are fleeing japan and decreasing population, i see them all around me when i go out to the shops, and whenever i see a toyota camry or corolla... not being racist, just stating, our population is growing for obvious reasons... were an elite country.
We have high immigration, we are a good counrty (in general) and people aspire to be here. Everyone aspires to li9ve near the water, thats why property on the northern beaches of sydney is sold @ a premium to western suburbs...
Australia's expectations are not just first world country.. but well beyond all OECD countries.
Australia's square meter expectation per house is close to 290, with US being 210 (before crash) and Japan 110 (before crash). Australia doesn't have to lower their expectation to a third-world country .. just to a "normal" developed country.. This alone will make the so called "high demand" disappear immediately.
About immigration, Australia is not the only or the highest. The immigration "factor" has been used in all other countries to deny its bubble .. before their bubbles burst. It is a very small factor which is completely overshadowed by affordability, credit situation and general economy.
Thanks Sphinx, appreciate the reply... i will check this out i actually had a question about if it was just us experiencing massive growth or other countries aswell.
how on earth are you going to shrink our existing hosuing stock? all you can do is change attitudes moving forward - something I have argued before is in the post. smaller houses!
i had to put the paces through my head for a bit but i thing the rental market will remain fairly constant, the rents would probly cover the existing ips, we are generally quite tight in our labor markets, and the unempoyment system being quiet generous, should see people having income to keep a rental roof over themselves, the ip rents cant stay flat as builders have contracted their buissines and reduced risks and wont be going flat out any time soon, those pesky stay at home kids will be considering famly soon and the population will still grow, i can't see people puting off another baby due to the recession as in tight times it flourishes, yes i think it should be ok!
What is "square meter expectation"? Australia's average and median home size are much, much, much smaller than the indicated 290 sqm...
What is "square meter expectation"? Australia's average and median home size are much, much, much smaller than the indicated 290 sqm...
new house size.
