When will OZ residential property prices reach its next peak?

When will OZ residential property prices reach its next peak?

  • 2010

    Votes: 5 5.4%
  • 2011

    Votes: 11 12.0%
  • 2012

    Votes: 22 23.9%
  • 2013

    Votes: 14 15.2%
  • 2014

    Votes: 9 9.8%
  • 2015

    Votes: 9 9.8%
  • 2016

    Votes: 4 4.3%
  • 2017

    Votes: 2 2.2%
  • 2018

    Votes: 4 4.3%
  • 2019

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 2020

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • >2020

    Votes: 12 13.0%

  • Total voters
    92
  • Poll closed .
Hi there,

I think most people here are currently watching the bottom of the property cycle in their respective states and the early signs of an upswing/boom... generally speaking!

Looking forwards from this then... (ie. as the OZ property price "crash" didn't really happen, so we can move on from this discussion)

When do people think we will hit the next peak in prices of the residential property cycle in OZ?

Note, this is thinking in broad macro terms of the whole OZ market (like a house price index), and keeping in mind that each state moves in different cycles...

Will it be slow and steady growth over a longer period? (like in those graphs!)

Prolonged stagnation then a boom?

Or a quick and rapid rise in prices to the next peak?

Etc, etc...

This is of course a bit of ''generally speaking crystal ball gazing'', but if you had to put a year on it, when would it be?

I'm tipping a rapid rise to the next peak... as early as 2012 (a gut feeling, not based on any informed reading/research!).

I think it's worthwhile thinking about this now as at some time ??in the next 5 years or so, there may come a point where the supply/demand balance and fundamentals no longer favour residential property (as discussed in other threads by Shadow et.al.)

And so one may need to consider re-valuations to ''lock in'' equity and/or selling to realise capital growth.

Wouldn't want to end up like a disciplined B+H share investor losing the majority of their gains in the last 10 years overnight, particularly if you were planning to retire sometime now.
 
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JIT, I recon 2016.

No real reason other than I'm planing to sell and retire around about then. I still beleive that 2012 will be a good year, but it wont be the peak.
 
who knows who cares. Take care of your risk factors, invest intelligently, dont use excessive debt relative to your income, and the upside will take care of itself over time.
 
Gee, I care.

Need to have some idea, even a guess will do. It's becoming a bit of a race for me to retire as soon as possible before I'm an old fuddy-duddy.
 
Looking forwards from this then... (ie. as the OZ property price "crash" didn't really happen, so we can move on from this discussion)
I don't think you can move on from this at all.. variable rates haven't even started to rise yet.
I expect stagnation and some areas falling in value over the next few years.
 
I would say that we will begin to get growth in property by around 2014...that will be 11 years from the previous peak, which was a massive boom.

I say begin to get growth because the growth we are seeing now is just catching up on price declines that occured during 2008.

I see way too many downsides to property over the next few years to possibly consider the potential for any significant growth let alone a boom before 2014.

Tim
 
Hi guys,

So long as we're taking bets, my money is still on 2012. There's a lot of good reasons why this will be the case:

* The current massive under-supply of houses.
* The lag before new property can come online.
* The impact of low rates.
* The economic recovery and the construction led property boom.
etc.

The guys at the economics company that we use to inform our strategic decisions have the following take as per the attachment. As can be seen, they reckon dwelling investment is going to peak in 2012. If investment equals prices, then the boom should peak at about the same time.

Cheers,
Michael
 

Attachments

  • Macroeconomic Demand Aggregates.JPG
    Macroeconomic Demand Aggregates.JPG
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I'd like an option: Pass.

I don't wish to speculate but want to see what everyone else is speculating.:):eek:

I would only be hazarding a guess at best.

Regards JO
 
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