MELBOURNE is caught up in a property boom reminiscent of the Sydney market five years ago, with house values in the Victorian city surging 25 per cent last year.
The average value of a house in Melbourne jumped from $370,059 in December 2006 to $463,488 in December 2007, according to data just released by Australian Property Monitors.
APM’s managing director Michael McNamara said if that trajectory continues, by 2009 Melbourne could overtake Sydney as Australia’s most expensive city to buy a house. But he thinks the current level of growth is unsustainable.
“I mean 25 per cent growth in house values is almost becoming ridiculous. People can only afford so much.”
Melbourne’s boom compared to a rise of just 4.8 per cent over the same period in Sydney, where house values rose to $553,357.
Melbourne’s units also did well, rising 14.7 per cent in 2007, compared to a 1.7 per cent rise in Sydney’s units.
“Sydney apartment values are now $370,000 and Melbourne unit values are barely 10 per cent cheaper at $335,000. Melbourne properties have never been within 10 per cent of Sydney,” Mr McNamara said.
Brisbane and Adelaide also recorded stellar years. Brisbane’s house values rose 20.1 per cent to $425,368, while its units rose 11.3 per cent to $322,127.
Adelaide’s houses rose 20 per cent to $400,649, while its units jumped 24.1 per cent to $261,964.
Mr McNamara said it’s easy for property markets to get caught in upward spirals.
“If vendors start to get more money for properties than they expect then they generally plough that money back into their next purchase – and so the cycle goes.”
Confidence to wane
Broader economic and financial conditions – such as uncertainty in the stock market, global economic volatility, rising interest rates and record petrol prices – are likely to have a dampening effect on buyer confidence this year.
“We should see the Melbourne property market start to slow and reach its peak towards the end of this calendar year.”
Perth is also likely to experience a slowdown in 2008 after proving to be quite resilient in 2007.
“Property markets are like great big cruise liners, they take a long time to slow up and stop. They don’t have the same kind of responsive volatility that stock markets have,” Mr McNamara said.
The Perth market started to slow in 2007 with house values rising just 1.7 per cent to $508,776 and units up 0.7 per cent at $348,464. APM expects Perth values will fall by up to 10 per cent this year.
The stagnant Sydney market, on the other hand, should see some growth in 2008. After several years of almost no growth at all, Sydney is starting to look cheap compared to other capital cities.
APM is tipping Sydney units will rise by 5 to 10 per cent this year.
Other centres
Canberra house values rose 14.6 per cent in 2007, to $506,570, with unit values up 11.4 per cent to $346,901.
Darwin house values were up 5.3 per cent for the year to $443,917, while units fell 2.1 per cent to $283,726.
House values in Hobart jumped 11.3 per cent to $280,853, and the city’s units rose 18.9 per cent to $246,361.