Why is skepticism getting such bad press?

I'm understating it. In your adversarial mode you call us D&Gers. :( And they're lower 'n a snakes belly.

Do you seriously believe that a desperate decade in which the Yanks are throwing out everything, including the life-rafts, hoping to keep their balloon economy aloft, has permanently altered the fundamentals of investing? Have you thought of the likelihood that you will have the privilege of watching the replay of the Fall Of The Roman Empire from the comfort of your lounge room? How do you avoid being sucked into the vortex?

In the Strong Growth in Brisbane thread someone dismissed thinking because they didn't have time. (Not going back to that toxic wasteland to find it.) No time to think about investing hundreds of thou? :eek:

We are dismissed as w*****s because we can't name the day or because it hasn't come yet. Even if I received an email from God and told you, could or would you sell before the date?

There are two camps here. One says borrow every dollar available to buy, it will work out in the end, and the other says they will buy next year @ 80c in the dollar. I think both will be disappointed.

To me, being locked into an investment which drifts, rangebound, when things are happening elsewhere, is the pits. But RE investors are smug in the knowledge that, because property has not fallen dramatically during their short lives, it can never do so.:eek:

But does property need to fall to be a bad investment? No! It is possible that there are Very small pockets of property returning near 8% rental return but they would be loudly decried here. Don't believe me? A few years ago (was a member, posting on the virtues of Townsville) Townsville and Rockhampton were offering +ve cash flow rental properties. Recent history had proved it was all happening in Syd and only cheepskates, who couldn't afford Syd went elsewhere. Seech, who must be to busy to post now, would be grinning, ear to ear. He went there.

That para was sidetracked: Lets start again,
But does property need to fall to be a bad investment? No! The accepted modus operandi here is that if you can only borrow 80% of value you are a retard. Real investors borrow the lot. LOL At 8% interest, you are going backwards if your property only doubles every ten years. What's that? You can lose if your highly geared investment can't exceed the interest rate? Bloody oath you can. And I said nothing about actual capital retracement.

There is a love of polls here, and while I no longer vote, I do read so I can better understand with whom I joust. (learnt how to say that at school. LOL) Seems the majority are half my age with twice my income. So I understand that there is a strong element of tax minimisation and "weekend" commitment. You can't hold down your well paid jobs and study anything other than Saturday's paper. That's OK. But don't tell us, with the time and the thirst to study the big picture, that we are Chicken Littles. I, personally, take umbrage at this generalisation.
 
Because most of the D&Gers have never done it. All they are doing is carping about it. What were they doing 6 or 7 years ago when the buying was supposedly better? Carping that property has been dead for so long that it'll never go up again, while rent is so expensive relative to prices?

I'm a bear, and I like to think I'm fairly well read, and I'm a bull over the long term. I think it's naive to think that you can clean up in a down market when you have no experience. Many of the D&Gers say 'when prices go down, I'll buy'. What the heck did they do in the late 90s? If they didn't buy then, and they haven't bought for the last couple of years, why do they think they will suddenly be prescient enough to buy at the bottom?

I just believe that we'll come out of this ok. Probably after a painful recession, higher unemployment, etc but there ARE those who come out of busts even stronger. In fact I think busts are where the real opportunities are.

Am I over confident? Naive? Perhaps. But the world wouldn't be anywhere without people who are willing to take chances. Plenty will fall by the wayside. Will I make it? Who knows. I'm willing to give it a try, though, instead of just sitting on the sidelines wringing my hands.

Some care is warranted. That's why I'm only at 50% LVR. Taking no chances guarantees failure.
Alex
 
My dear friend Alex.:) (don't take that the wrong way, you are becoming a friend) I should have guessed that you would be the first to reply.

But you do read, and with the benefit of some formal education that I have missed (I'm a mechanic, sortof) you understand what I say, even if you don't always agree.

Let's see what else I trawl up. LOL
 
Sunfish - still think of you as Thommo anyway....

D&G is not such a bad thing. Back in 2002 I was fortunate in discovering that properties in FNQ had halved due to SARS, Pilot strike, Ansett collapse etc. Not so good for those that had bought in the 10 years before but great for me.

I bought a wonderful apartment for almost half its value. Ask the Aircraft Steward who had walked away from it whether property ever goes down!! She had paid $98k for it and I bought it for $52k. She just did not hang in long enough, within months it went up to 75k and within a year back to its original cost. She had owned it for I think 8 years. We then bought a townhouse for $67k original price $130k.

When we were buying no-one else was, why?? because property was cheap, had halved, so who would touch it, only stupid people like us southerners. D & G was the norm, so bring it on, it means real bargains. :D Still brings in the rent, yes its lower, but still gives a good return.

Chris
 
G'day SF,

Why is skepticism getting such bad press?
Maybe because it always has - with most people. For me, healthy scepticism is a useful tool. And your posts, Bill, (in whatever guise :p ) have often been very useful in providing a "circuit breaker" to over-exuberant irrationalism. That's not to say that I always agree with you - but, often, your thoughts have given me pause - and thanks for that.

Without scepticism, we would all be immediately beholden to "the newest fad" (e.g. like Al Gore and his mumblings - and his new companies which just happen to pander to FUD in the masses) without thinking it all through for ourselves. Hmm, do I have a bias here??? :p :eek:

Fortunately, I'm old enough to have lived through many "end of life as we know it" dramas - yet we are still here and fighting. Good luck to you and me,

Regards
 
I bought a wonderful apartment for almost half its value.

That's great, such is capitalism, of which I approve, (Gotta stop talkin like this!) which highlights the dangers of waiting for the perfect entry: They will still be too timid to buy when there is value in the market. Whether the stock market or RE "waiters" will never find the "right" time to enter the market.

The very skillful know how to time their exit though. :D
 
Fish, you only think your a doom and gloomer.

Your not really though mate. Think about it a bit. Your still invested into resource stocks for a start. You still own your house. If you really really thought the sky was gunna fall you would be sitting on cash or gold or grain or something.

A real doom and gloomer is renting, waiting to buy at half the price, which hopefully will never happen.


To add a bit,
I have my doomish days. Here we are at record oil, and grain prices, no end in sight. The climate change mob are now saying climate change is permanent. Australias agricultural production is set to drop 20%.... India's and Africa's to drop by 40%.... The US are sitting on the edge of a cliff. Too much borrowed money, yet they just slashed interest rates. .....What the!!!...... I worry about terrorism. Those extremists hate our guts now and they have full bellies. Wait a few decades when their population has doubled, they are all starving and see what they think of us then.

See ya's.
 
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I certainly never took you for a D&Ger either Sunfish. Being more conservative than others is not the same thing I don't think. Plenty of experts out there thinking/doing exactly the same.
 
I certainly never took you for a D&Ger either Sunfish. Being more conservative than others is not the same thing I don't think. Plenty of experts out there thinking/doing exactly the same.

I agree. If you were a D&Ger you would really annoy me........& you don't.:D
 
The very skillful know how to time their exit though. :D

I would like to expand on the last comment: The very skillful know how to time their exit from the debt levels in that particular mode of investment.

There is nothing wrong with doing the hard yards and paying off your first or even second house if that is where your investing stage is at. You will need some sort of equity to go in hard at the optimum time.

I moved my investing to the next level. With multiple IP's, I sold off the poorer quality ones and paid off the debt on the better quality ones. I have used the equity to puddle around in the sharemarket but this foray is hardly serious and just as I went for positive cashflow property, I also go for positive cashflow shares. I just find shares easier to find at present than property.

Why was I successful with property? Because I hit the market at the optimum time (just before a market recovery), I had little debt and a couple of houses which I had payed repayments into to grow equity.

I am ready to go in again when the optimum time comes around in my area again. Yeah, I know I'm spoiled and too lazy to keep chasing the preboom areas. I will just wait and stick to what I know.

Doom and gloom: It is just part of the cycle. Just like there is one in ten year floods, or one in 100 year floods, or even one in 1000 year floods. Everyone is aware of it but it doesn't mean they won't invest in property. Just be aware of what could happen and have some sort of contingency plan.

Everyone has house insurance in case it burns to the ground. Does this mean we are all doom and gloomers?
 
RichardC/Thommo/Sunfish,

If we all took total D&G attitude we wouldn't be investing whether it be shares, IP's or whatever. We know there is RISK and invest accordingly,
Nobody can predict accurately what and when things will happen (good or bad).
We seek knowledge though books, experience and experience of others on the forum and process that to form our own direction.
You've posted the other side of the coin frequently on the site, and I would see that as a balance for the people reading.
Hey if everyone said NOW was the time to buy and there was no negative comments at all, I'd be getting real worried that a bust was coming.

We invest with risk, everyone does, and they would be a fool to think otherwise...but we also invest and try to balance it with some "what if" funds, a saftey net, security if you like when things go bad. We do that from experience, education and sometimes sheer luck.


P.S. We finished the reno in Townsville, Trademen weren't an issue
we just bypassed them in the end.
 
Hi Thommo,

Good post....

One problem with perma bulls & perma bears, is that people start ignoring them after a while.

Another problem (as you say) is that, sure a recession WILL occur, but unless we know when that info is next to useless. Some probabilities or timescales would be good. I recall posting a while back that sub-prime may be pinpointed as the start of the end of the cycle, but I think a few more 'bad news events' need to happen before the cycle really does end.

In 1987 shares were overvalued, then doubled in price before that crash. So D&Gers who (quite correctly) forecast that a crash should occur were absolutely right. But those who held on for a further 6 months showed that being right didn't necessarily make money.


There's a bias towards posting extremes eg v. high LVRs. I'd guess there's a majority here that have reasonably conservative LVRs, that are really boring & not worth posting about. I think some who are still pushing the limits at this time in the cycle may suffer if they don't manage the risks appropriately.

My LVRs are 66% for IP & 40% for shares, overall 52%. I buy protection for my shares at times like these. In the recent correction I bought some more, I also sold some that had high exposure to the US.


Quality management will prevail. I'm coming around to the view that in any business smart and experienced people who mitigate risks & take advantage of opportunities will do well. IMO MacBank, QBE, Westfield et al are headed by people with those qualities. Some IP investors here will also thrive when the next cycle turns. Of course, some won't.


IP investment is long term. Short term segments of the cycle don't interest many - they're a minor blip that is to be expected.


Why should it be different this time ? Won't we have a bit of short term pain (a recession is defined as lasting a mere 6 months), a period of readjustment, then the start of the next cycle? What's the worst case scenario ? What do we need to do to last this 6(?) months ?


No-one wants a recession (well almost no-one:rolleyes: ). The Fed & BoE are doing their best to avert/delay it. Their current actions may of course backfire leading to a worse worst case scenario. But nobody knows for sure yet.


Most forecasts of impending doom are wrong. 90% of the bad stuff that might happen never actually does occur. And there needs to be a critical mass of bad stuff before sentiment turns.


I agree there will be lots of problems in the future, I hope to be able to manage them. They will be balanced by lots of good things. The last few years have had a high proportion of good things. I believe that currently economic conditions are fairly balanced, however the next few months will be interesting. Whn the tide goes out we'll get to see who's been swimming naked.


Keep posting Thommo...

Cheers Keith
 
Hi Thommo,

In 1987 shares were overvalued, then doubled in price before that crash. So D&Gers who (quite correctly) forecast that a crash should occur were absolutely right. But those who held on for a further 6 months showed that being right didn't necessarily make money.

Cheers Keith

Hey Keith.

Reminds me of a story from 'Masters of the Market'

Brian Price.
He knew how silly the tech boom was. He took out a massive short from which he would have made mega millions. Held on and on as the tech boom rose and rose. Finally it busted him, and he sold out for a 30 million dollar loss.
The tech boom of course busted soon after he exited his shorts.

See ya's.
 
Most forecasts of impending doom are wrong. 90% of the bad stuff that might happen never actually does occur. And there needs to be a critical mass of bad stuff before sentiment turns.


Keep posting Thommo...

Cheers Keith

and let's not forget bad news SELLS, whether its viewing time, magazines, newspapers etc.

and I also agree... keep posting Thommo!
 
Sunfish

I don't see you as a 'D&G'er - methinks you are more of a realist, and I think we could all do with a healthy dose of that from time to time! :)

As Timm says: keep posting, Thommo - I enjoy reading your posts.

Cheers
LynnH
 
Kiss = Keep It Simple Stupid = Time In The Market, Not Timing The Market.

Time can also be your enemy. The more time you spend in a war zone, the less chance of survival. The longer you stay out at sea after a storm warning, the higher your risk (but you may have the fishing grounds to yourself :) ). There is a financial storm warning current. Jim Puplava calls it the perfect storm and if it hits, being in Oz will not help as it didn't help during the Great Depression.
 
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