We maybe not in a bubble. However I suspect just one or two 25 basis point increase in interest rate
Given where the RBA is today, when would you gauge this will happen ?
ta
rolf
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We maybe not in a bubble. However I suspect just one or two 25 basis point increase in interest rate
We maybe not in a bubble. However I suspect just one or two 25 basis point increase in interest rate will change the sentiment in property market suddenly. To me current market at least in Sydney is at its peak, similar to that in 2003.
No rush in buying now, plenty of chances ahead in the next couple of year.
Yes are are not in a bubble, truth is when China tanks Australia is finished.
Hmm. I am just new to the forum. Having second thoughts now to buy a IP - looking at Baulkham Hills, NSW - 800 k.
At 45c, will Australia replace China/Indonesia/Vietnam/Africa and become the new manufacturing hub and cheap holiday destination for those who can't afford the US?
At 45c, will Australia replace China/Indonesia/Vietnam/Africa and become the new manufacturing hub and cheap holiday destination for those who can't afford the US?
At 45c, interest rates would be back to well over 10%
Just look at South African Rand or Turkish Lira recently.
Typically reserve banks crank up rates to counter an exchange rate crisis, as 45c would be. A rate that low would be detrimental to the economy, not beneficial. 2001 rates were a temporary risk off aberration following stock market downturns.That assumes the AUD crashes because of capital flight.
Deutsche Bank's forecast of the AUD at 66c, for example, assumes no rate rises.
The AUD was at 50c back in 2001 while RBA rates were in the 5s with mortgages in the 6s and 7s, if I rembember correctly. Rates were then cut.
Typically reserve banks crank up rates to counter an exchange rate crisis, as 45c would be. A rate that low would be detrimental to the economy, not beneficial. 2001 rates were a temporary risk off aberration following stock market downturns.
I don't believe the rate could get near DBs forecast without rate rises kicking in.