With the current negativity, what are your current thoughts?

[BayView]

I see media negativity as simply a warning to be careful.

It's like someone saying; "be careful crossing the road today; there are way more cars than normal, and someone got hit by one yesterday".

You still cross the road, but extra caution may be needed.

My investing has always, and always will involve utmost safety from loss, so we are reasonably protected, our jobs are recession- proof, and we are ready to go shopping and take advantage of the current D&G.

I love accumulating assets and not scared to accumulate investment debt, but I'm always very mindful of the debt/equity and the cashflow.

Cashflow is the ultimate hedge against any market.

 

[asdf]

they have been building homes in india , brasil, and africa for years , and why do you need a builder to build a home, at least your own, no one was born to be able to tie our laces, or ride a bike.

I hope you're not serious?? But if you are, can you help me out cos sounds like you might know how to put a house up without them expensive builders and tradies.

 

[gman65]

I think too many are banking on obscenely low interest rates:

http://www.theage.com.au/national/rba-official-tempers-expectations-on-rate-cuts-20081030-5em1.html

 

[craigb]

I hope you're not serious?? But if you are, can you help me out cos sounds like you might know how to put a house up without them expensive builders and tradies.

i am actualy very serios and have buils a few , working up to this 1.5m home in just 5 years, i am always happy to hel those who want to help themselves, i now note the other posts are all reasons why one can't build a house, i would love to see just as many positive reasons why you can,

 

[chilliaa]

:d

***************
Hi Bill,

1. Do You Not Think That It Is Bit Too Pre-mature To Re-invest Into The Asx At This Point In Time, When It Has Only Dropped Down To 3869.4 Today?
who Knows, You Cant Know Where The Market Goes In The Short Term

2. This Is Despite The Asx Hitting Its 4-years Record Low, At This 3869.4 Level.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/shares-near-4year-low-20081024-57m4.html
you Forget The Market Unlike A Casino Has Dependent Probability. What Goes Up Too Fast Must Come Down And What Goes Down Must Eventually Go Up


3. With The Present Global Financial Crisis Which Is Fast Turning Into A Global Recession In 2009-2010 Period, I Will Personally Expect The Asx To Fall Even Lower Than 3500 Points Before It Is Said To Have Properly Bottomed Out.
on What Basis? Because Its Been Falling? Can I Ask You In 2007 Did You Forecast The Asx Going Below 3500 In 2008? If Not Then Why Should It Go Below 3500 Now?

4. This Is Especially So When We Can Soon Expect To See More Profits Cuts By The Other Asx-listed Companies In Australia.
so Then At What Point To Do Drop In Equity Prices Equate To The Drop In Earnings?????? What About The Fact That The Asx Has Already Dropped 40% Odd. At What Point Does The Drop Nullify The Drop In Earnings????

5. Many Members Here Are Also Forecasting That Asx200 Are Likely To Bottom Out, Reaching Below The 3500 Points Level, At This Point In Time.

so Does This Mean That Sommersofters Opinions Are The Arbiters That Dictate Asx Levels.

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46785


6. For Your Further Comments And Discussion, Please.

7. Thank You.


Regards,
Kenneth Koh

Just My Opinions:d

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Sorry to have missed your questions Kenneth.

The Oct-April period is particularly good for the stockmarket, especially after a large fall into the October low.

We have crashing interest rates, a much lower $Aus, (which leads to higher internal inflation), plus a govt that will spend the surplus to save the economy.

Should commodities take off again, then everything points to similar conditions to the early/mid '70's, and of course everything looked awful at that time, just as it does now.

bye

 

[listohan]

Reading an old BRW

I was reading a September BRW the other day. The articles was about the decline in fortunes of Jamie Packer but in other respects, it was pretty much business as usual (Lehman's had only just gone). That was then, this is now. In Sydney last week my sister and two nephews lost their jobs in the same week. All were in different industries.

Before the last recession (many were barely born then) lending had been regulated beforehand and people were not as heavily committed. This time the loan money has been flowing freely and now even folk in the old money suburbs are selling up. I'm not panicking but then again I don't have to sell. Today.