Aceyducey said:
OK,
I'm an optimist by nature, but let's talk realistically about a tsunami warning system...
1) We can detect tsunamis at an early stage with around 40% accuracy within two hours of analysis with current technologies (if they were implemented). (yes I've done some research on the topic)
Let's assume that in the next few years we can raise this to 80% within one hour.
2) Once the tsunami is detected and confirmed the regional warning system has to contact the appropriate people responsible for each area likely to be affected. Let's say it takes 30 minutes to reach these people and notify them of the tsunami....of course this assumes there are no hold-ups, no-one crucial is away and telecommunications systems work to 1st world levels.
3) The people responsible have to get the message out to emergency services, inhabitants & tourists. Within 30 minutes with a perfect organisation they can get the word to radio stations & TV stations and onto the air. Within an hour they can have all the emergency services in position on stand-by - assuming again no delays, first world communications standards, that everyone understands it's not a hoax, etc.
Thus within only two hours of a disaster we have broadcasts going out notifying people in affected areas what is happening and within 2.5 hours emergency services can start co-ordinating evacuations.....
Not too bad as a best case....realistically considering breakdowns in systems it would take 4-5 hours to get warnings out, and some governments would not issue warnings at all, but let's stick to this best case.
NOW
4) How long does it take to evacuate people from affected areas?
The US stopped gaming large area evacuations in the 1960s because it was realised that there was no effective way to evacuiate a reasonably-sized area in under a week - and you can only do that with 4 weeks preparation.
Also evacuations (according to US military gaming) had the potential to cause higher casualties as people funnel into areas where it is more dangerous while leaving the area, plus possibilities of riots and other unpleasant events.
So in the absolute best case, I can't see there be an effective way to warn people about tsunamis for anyone living within 4 hours of the tsunami's origin.
For greater distances the warning may potentially increase the death toll due to panic, confusion, traffic jams & people filtering through areas which may take more damage than if they remained at home.
So is having a tsunami warning system about feeling we're doing something or does it actually provide value?
I'm sceptical about a tsunami warning system. I'd like to see the money dedicated to problems with clearer solutions.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
As usual Aceyduecy raises a valid point.
We often think we know what to do in an emergency having watched TV and being intelligent beings.
But do we really react to warnings?
Are we trained to know what to do when confronted with a uncontrolable and massive risk?
The reality is we are often confused and make wrong decisions. We also dont believe.
I subscribe to the theory that potential disasters are more common that we think and it is human reaction and training combined with luck that influences the level of loss.
Personally I have experienced:
Coffs Harbour Cyclone Warning around 1994.
It was a Saturday arvo and wife and I had retired for a nap (yes we have no children but it really was a nap) and them decided to watch video. Oblivious to the outside world until my business partner called to ask “Had we prepared”. We went out and packed a few things away but not really sure what to do or where to go, if at all.
Had I responded correctly? No. Why? I had no sense of danger and no training or advice on what to do. We were not locals and didn’t know what a cyclone could do.
Would a warning system helped? NO…unless it was recorded phone message to all but I assume that would block the wires anyway.
So as you can read it is not that simple as sending out an alert.
I know many people actually went to the beach to check out the water spouts. Also many did hear and fear the risk and in the general panic caused a number of car accidents as parents rushed to pick up kids from sports, buy provisions and such.
In the end it never came and was down graded to a severe storm so mostly became a talking point at parties. But when you see the preparation and mass evacuation the US does in Florida obviously they know the real risk.
As for Tsunami’s, having seen the risk on TV and news I would rush to higher ground if a warning came, especially as we lived close to the beach and a coastal creek at the time.
1998 Sydney Hailstorm
How many of you have seen the news saying hail as big as golfballs and thought, yeah, a bit of artistic license here? I did until this storm.
Typical early evening about 8:30pm that was hot and changing to storm very quickly. Was watching TV and no warning came on air despite having hit Wollongong and Southern Suburbs. I understand some radios had sent a warning but who listens to the radio at night? Also some announcers were very cynical of the reports coming in.
Would I have responded? Maybe to my car but it is parked in the street anyhow so where can I put it? Like many I would have put a blanket over the car.
Well, ….blankets don’t stop golfballs. The first rocks hit nearby roofs so hard they ( the rocks) exploded. I thought someone’s gas bottle had gone up. After five more we realized what it was and that it was too late to do anything.
Our brand new car enjoyed $10k of damage with every panel dinted but we lost no glass. Had we parked three spaces down the road, where cars were not as protected, we would have lost windows and suffered water damage like our neighbors. Their $20k car was written off.
We suffered $7k damage to roof and skylight smashed. Again luck plays a part. Our skylight is over the shower so the rain did not matter. Next door neighbor has five skylights, two over bedrooms and one over a hallway. Lots of water damage and celing collapse.
All done in ten minutes.
Yet whilst Surry Hills was pummeled, 1km away in Ultimo and Pyrmont it was a non-event. The entire eastern suburbs were hit yet amazingly no-one was killed or hurt seriously. Now when I hear Hailstorm I prepare but those who didn’t live through it don’t understand the fuss. Would you?
Afterwards us neighbors went outside to inspect and it looked like a war zone. Not long after the storm the nearby Drama Theater finished. A hundred patrons came out to dozens of cars with alarms wailing and full of water and stripped leaves.
Some didn’t believe our story as they hadn’t heard a thing. Having not seen it they simply could not understand. It was clear skies and all the water had run away by then. Except that water sitting half way up car doors from the inside.
Had the storm been say 50km out to sea no-one would have cared or known. Had it been restricted to say National Park or lesser populated area again it would not had even made the news. Circumstances.
Despite talk and Multi $M’s of damage and years of repairs Sydney still doesn’t have a coherent hailstorm warning system. They can track it and predict it but they have no system of telling everyone.
I can only imagine the shock and danger the Canberra Bushfires causes. Yet how many times do you see some fool in thongs and shorts with a garden hose saying I staying to defend my home? And you even get sightseerers
So I write this in support of Acey comments that being wise after the event is easy. The reality is it takes training, and coordination to reduce loss and often both are lacking in an emergency of massive scale.
And as time passes the risk is forgotten until next time.
Peter 147
