Ye Residex Predications

[qaz]

How accurate are the residex predictations in your opinion?. Do they tend to get the big growth suburbs right?. Do they ever make bold predications about emerging areas?.

 

[Aceyducey]

A lot of their big growth suburbs & towns are the small ones where a few sales can easily distort the figures.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[likewow]

Ive only used Residex in the recent property boom and it would be pretty hard for them to get it wrong during that time (2000-2003) so i'd say they are very accurate.

 

[XBenX]

A lot of their big growth suburbs & towns are the small ones where a few sales can easily distort the figures.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

They also disclose where the number of sales makes their data unreliable.

IMHO Residex are one of the best if not the best real estate stat firm out there.

 

[XBenX]

Ive only used Residex in the recent property boom and it would be pretty hard for them to get it wrong during that time (2000-2003) so i'd say they are very accurate.

Can you explain how its easier to predict growth rates (or any other stats) accurately in a boom?

 

[likewow]

Can you explain how its easier to predict growth rates (or any other stats) accurately in a boom?

Because the trend is your friend and once the upward swing starts and gains momentum its not hard to predict growth rates or even that you will have lots of it. Much easier than predicting things now.

Personally, i like the concept of price prediction using rental yields in an investor driven boom. In areas with higher then historical yields (8%+) the boom powered on until the yields were the same or less than that areas historical average, usually rippling outwards from the CBDs.

In thoses cases it was pretty easy to make predictions (and a lot of money)

 

[XBenX]

My point was that the "trend" would make it just as easy to overstate the possible gains.

Accuracy isnt increased - its just a case of noone caring if your wrong..

Apologies for the loaded qn - I just wanted to see someone else come to the conclusion.

 

[XBenX]

Just re;read - its probably just the definition of wrong.

The point I was making was that overstating growth would be "wrong"

You were making the point that its easy to say there will be growth.

Apologies again!!! I missed your point.

 

[likewow]

Just re;read - its probably just the definition of wrong.

The point I was making was that overstating growth would be "wrong"

You were making the point that its easy to say there will be growth.

Apologies again!!! I missed your point.

No worries Ben, no need to apologise. Residex include disclaimers on their reports relating to what you are saying. In my particular case they were predicting growth of 20% pa over 2001-2003. But the reality was more like 40%-50% pa for 2 years. I think they like to stay conservative as they should.