How do I predict a boom in regional Victoria - Seaspray, Tallangatta etc

Hi all, I'm currently looking at investing in regional victoria with a budget of around 100-350k max. I've been noticing area's like Portland have had 50% growth in the last year. My strategy would be to buy a shack renovate and ideally sell in 12 months, or perhaps have it revalued after the renovation then tenant it out for a high positive return.An example I guess would be to buy around 120-150k, reno and revalue or sell for over 200k. I figure a 200p/w+ yield on a 150k loan is a pretty good investment if it can be done!

In relation to capital growth I've noticed area's like Tallangatta, Jamieson and particular Seaspray have "boomed" the last 12 months with growth figures above the 30% mark, and may continue to boom but I'm not sure how I figure this out reliably? If a suburb has annual growth statistics of say 30% (avg quarterly growth = 7.5%) and it's recent quarterly stats show say 12%... that indicates to me the suburb/town is still in a boom, and the demand will slowly drop down from 12% or continue to rise if the boom is still well and truly alive. I've seen many other suburbs with statistics of 30% growth over the last 12 months followed by 1.34% recent quarterly stats.. implying the boom has ended rather spontaneously. Which is a scary thought. I guess benchmarking this data against clearance and vacancy rates (rental demand) would further help predict future prosperity of an area, along with planned infrastructure etc. Despite the predicted slowdown of the current market the next few years there will be regional towns and even suburbs that boom over 20-30% during that period, my plan is to find out where they are.

Seaspray has interested me, I'm looking more towards appealing retirement "beachy" areas rather than "reliable" regional cities like Albury, Ballarat etc (ie. more risk more reward). I don't mind the idea of a holiday house either. I understand this strategy is riskier and these towns can stagnate for years.. but with considerably more reward if I pick the right area right before the big boom (ie. units in Portland were 120k only 12 months ago now 240k that's a lot of growth :D). Not to mention in Seaspray the future plans for CSG seem rather appealing from an investment perspective, I assume this is what has already driven house prices in seaspray so considerably this last year, so if CSG doesn't happen.. will just they come crashing down again? Moreso will growth continue provided CSG in the aarea does go ahead, or has it already peaked over the last year? Risky market to me!

So what are your methods for predicting future growth in a suburb or particularly a tiny country town with appeal? By the time I've figured it out the boom is already half over.. there's a wealth of useful data available however it can be interpreted in so many (and contradictory) ways. I've only just started out and am new to all this.. want to make sure I can turn all my speculation/guesswork into a good investment! Guess I'm looking to build more confidence in my research ;) And my apologies in advance for the terrible grammar!
 
...I've been noticing area's like Portland have had 50% growth in the last year....
In relation to capital growth I've noticed area's like Tallangatta, Jamieson and particular Seaspray have "boomed" the last 12 months with growth figures above the 30% mark, and may continue to boom but I'm not sure how I figure this out reliably? ...So what are your methods for predicting future growth in a suburb or particularly a tiny country town with appeal?

All valid questions James but I think you may have stumbled upon why you are questioning your research.
You are looking at very small markets with low numbers of sales. As such the figures are not as statistically reliable as you would find in larger centres - that is, if a new development comes on line with 20 new units and the normal annual sales are 80 for the area, the additional sales will skew the median sales price. So you need to review all sales to determine a like for like sample. Likewise, if several of the best houses in the suburb has been sold it will push up the median esp if there are alot of standard houses in the mix.
 
Hi all, I'm currently looking at investing in regional victoria with a budget of around 100-350k max. I've been noticing area's like Portland have had 50% growth in the last year. My strategy would be to buy a shack renovate and ideally sell in 12 months, or perhaps have it revalued after the renovation then tenant it out for a high positive return.An example I guess would be to buy around 120-150k, reno and revalue or sell for over 200k. I figure a 200p/w+ yield on a 150k loan is a pretty good investment if it can be done!

In relation to capital growth I've noticed area's like Tallangatta, Jamieson and particular Seaspray have "boomed" the last 12 months with growth figures above the 30% mark, and may continue to boom but I'm not sure how I figure this out reliably? If a suburb has annual growth statistics of say 30% (avg quarterly growth = 7.5%) and it's recent quarterly stats show say 12%... that indicates to me the suburb/town is still in a boom, and the demand will slowly drop down from 12% or continue to rise if the boom is still well and truly alive. I've seen many other suburbs with statistics of 30% growth over the last 12 months followed by 1.34% recent quarterly stats.. implying the boom has ended rather spontaneously. Which is a scary thought. I guess benchmarking this data against clearance and vacancy rates (rental demand) would further help predict future prosperity of an area, along with planned infrastructure etc. Despite the predicted slowdown of the current market the next few years there will be regional towns and even suburbs that boom over 20-30% during that period, my plan is to find out where they are.

Seaspray has interested me, I'm looking more towards appealing retirement "beachy" areas rather than "reliable" regional cities like Albury, Ballarat etc (ie. more risk more reward). I don't mind the idea of a holiday house either. I understand this strategy is riskier and these towns can stagnate for years.. but with considerably more reward if I pick the right area right before the big boom (ie. units in Portland were 120k only 12 months ago now 240k that's a lot of growth :D). Not to mention in Seaspray the future plans for CSG seem rather appealing from an investment perspective, I assume this is what has already driven house prices in seaspray so considerably this last year, so if CSG doesn't happen.. will just they come crashing down again? Moreso will growth continue provided CSG in the aarea does go ahead, or has it already peaked over the last year? Risky market to me!

So what are your methods for predicting future growth in a suburb or particularly a tiny country town with appeal? By the time I've figured it out the boom is already half over.. there's a wealth of useful data available however it can be interpreted in so many (and contradictory) ways. I've only just started out and am new to all this.. want to make sure I can turn all my speculation/guesswork into a good investment! Guess I'm looking to build more confidence in my research ;) And my apologies in advance for the terrible grammar!

As Scott said your not comparing apples with apples

You can pick up a house for about 130 - 140
Which you may be able to get 200 a week for which is fine

Issues with Portland - 99 places for rent is a lot
900 places for sale - 400 of them houses
 
Might want to do some more research into seaspray, there were issues around planning approvals to build on a lot of the blocks there. I remember reading an article about it. Lots of the blocks were sold to 10 Pound Poms in the 60-70's and never built on/developed.
 
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