5 year fixed rates thread

[JIT]

Hi there,

Thought I'd add Stuart's article to this thread :

http://www.prosolution.com.au/news/notices/IRAN.pdf

I wouldn't be falling for the Westpac 3 yr fixed rate...

Let's wait and see what else happens with 5 year rates...

Thanks.

 

[Gools]

I look to fixing rates at high 4's or low 5s next year.

Sash, quite possible. Here's a graph of the Cash Interest Rate Futures.

 

[JIT]

Citibank just dropped their rates to 6.89% pa fixed for 5 years.

(and I'm just putting the Cash Rate Futures link in here so I can refer to it later...http://www.asx.com.au/data/trt/ib_expectation_curve_graph.pdf)

(and my interest rate source: http://www.interest.com.au/Borrowing/Mortgages/index.htm)

 

[JIT]

They're falling!

Bank of SA - 6.44% pa for 5 years
St George - 6.44% pa for 5 years

 

[buzzlightyear]

They're falling!

Bank of SA - 6.44% pa for 5 years
St George - 6.44% pa for 5 years

First to 4% gets my business!

 

[lizzie]

They're falling!

Bank of SA - 6.44% pa for 5 years
St George - 6.44% pa for 5 years

actually - with propack discount stg is 6.29% ... and 5.99% for three years. but i'm with buzz - i'll be locking when the 5 or 10 yr fixed has a 4 in front of it.

 

[Peter 14.7]

Ditto, 4% is good for me. Great thread JIT!

Peter 14.7

 

[Perth Investor]

Never gonna happen...

My opinion only, and I'm hoping I'm wrong, but this is what I reckon:

1. Definitely won't get a 10 year rate with a 4 in front of it.
2. Will be lucky to get a 5 year rate from a serious lender with a 5 in front of it.

Maybe high 5's for the 5 year rate, but not less than that.

 

[Peter 14.7]

My opinion only, and I'm hoping I'm wrong, but this is what I reckon:

1. Definitely won't get a 10 year rate with a 4 in front of it.
2. Will be lucky to get a 5 year rate from a serious lender with a 5 in front of it.

Maybe high 5's for the 5 year rate, but not less than that.

I can say with pleasure you will be proved wrong. In 2003 I just missed out on 5.89% fixed for five years with CBA and this time is a lot worse. I predict a 4.99% for five years as possible with the big 4. 10 year not so sure but a 10 year loan is along term bet on circumstances as well.

Peter 14.7

 

[sash]

....better tell that to the punters on the futures market....they are making a serious mistake!

Time will tell....my bet is a 4 in front for 5 year rates.....the 10 year one is a hard one.

My opinion only, and I'm hoping I'm wrong, but this is what I reckon:

1. Definitely won't get a 10 year rate with a 4 in front of it.
2. Will be lucky to get a 5 year rate from a serious lender with a 5 in front of it.

Maybe high 5's for the 5 year rate, but not less than that.

 

[redwing]

3 year fixed rate of 4.99%

5 year fixed rates of 6.29%.

12 years at 6.79%

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi, I chickened out & fixed today, much higher than I'd wish but still almost 4% less than the high.

Only short term fix, 18 months. To me, it doesn't matter if the rates were to go down some more. Reason, I'm on a reasonably fixed yield & the cashflow is significant enough to no longer wait.

I will do the same with the Aust loans very shortly. Under 6%, I'll be over the moon.

Incidentally, I don't think for a moment that rates will drop by as much as 100bp again. When cash rates reach 4%, the capacity to drop is hampered by there being no room to drop.

KY

 

[allblack]

Hi, I chickened out & fixed today, much higher than I'd wish but still almost 4% less than the high.

Only short term fix, 18 months. To me, it doesn't matter if the rates were to go down some more. Reason, I'm on a reasonably fixed yield & the cashflow is significant enough to no longer wait.
KY

I don't think you chickened out I think your brave!!. The variable rate in 18 months time could be heading north again.

 

[Nathan]

I don't think you chickened out I think your brave!!. The variable rate in 18 months time could be heading north again.

agree......

 

[Y33]

My 6.5 ending in March is already with StG. 6.29 looks nice but low 5's or the 4 range would be nicer.

Any bets on which bank will hit 5yr @ 5's and then 4's first?

 

[Hoffy]

Incidentally, I don't think for a moment that rates will drop by as much as 100bp again. When cash rates reach 4%, the capacity to drop is hampered by there being no room to drop.

KY

The capacity to drop rates would be 4%, which is more than they have dropped so far. So there is still a long way to go, which is what most developed countries around the world have done.

Another 100bps is a near certainty.

 

[Perth Investor]

I can say with pleasure you will be proved wrong. In 2003 I just missed out on 5.89% fixed for five years with CBA and this time is a lot worse. I predict a 4.99% for five years as possible with the big 4. 10 year not so sure but a 10 year loan is along term bet on circumstances as well.

Peter 14.7

Peter

Looking forward to be proved wrong! And will gladly eat my humble pie while I lock in and save myself another $10K or so a year!

Sash

The futures market is great for picking variable rates, but the banks set fixed rates independently and in the next few months you will see the fixed rates returning to having a premium over the variable, rather than being lower. That's why I think even if the variable rate gets to 4.5% (actual bank rates), that the fixed rate for 5 years will still be above 5.5%. And the ten year rate over 6. The 3 year rate will still be aggressive and you might get 4.5% for that...

Please, oh please lord, let you guys be right!

Noel

 

[lizzie]

Any bets on which bank will hit 5yr @ 5's and then 4's first?

cba or westpac. they're going head to head atm.

i've been noting down the interest rates of all the majors every tuesday - keeping a close eye and ready to strike. it seems to be one of those two that will blink first.

 

[sash]

Less blinking the better!!!

Go CBA...I am with them.

cba or westpac. they're going head to head atm.

i've been noting down the interest rates of all the majors every tuesday - keeping a close eye and ready to strike. it seems to be one of those two that will blink first.

 

[sparky23]

I am with everybody so its all good!