again, links anyone?
Confidence in Australian Housing Market
- Thread starter INVSTOR
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again, links anyone?
If you're up for it, http://wwwdocs.fce.unsw.edu.au/fce/Research/ResearchMicrosites/CAER/WorkingPaperSeries/WPS0610.pdf on page 25 onwards of a 34 page document, clearly shows Sydney capital growth during the period from just prior to 1987 and for the next 18 months as having 11% to 8% CG per quarter.
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@Beebop, you wanted my survey of suburb affordability to be more comprehensive. Below are ALL postcodes in the ACT listed along with "% of Mortgage Repayments to Total Household Income Before Tax", the figures are forecast to 2011 from census data (from Here).
It seems to me that people in all of these suburbs except one are living within their means according to the acceptable standard of affordability which I believe is upto 30% of income spent on housing. Or am I missing something? Just how should i be looking at affordability in the ACT in order for it look expensive?
•2600 21%
•2601 16%
•2602 21%
•2603 19%
•2604 20%
•2605 18%
•2606 19%
•2607 19%
•2609 33%
•2611 20%
•2612 19%
•2614 19%
•2615 21%
•2617 18%
•2900 16%
•2902 17%
•2903 18%
•2904 16%
•2905 18%
•2906 19%
•2912 19%
•2913 19%
•2914 19%
It seems to me that people in all of these suburbs except one are living within their means according to the acceptable standard of affordability which I believe is upto 30% of income spent on housing. Or am I missing something? Just how should i be looking at affordability in the ACT in order for it look expensive?
•2600 21%
•2601 16%
•2602 21%
•2603 19%
•2604 20%
•2605 18%
•2606 19%
•2607 19%
•2609 33%
•2611 20%
•2612 19%
•2614 19%
•2615 21%
•2617 18%
•2900 16%
•2902 17%
•2903 18%
•2904 16%
•2905 18%
•2906 19%
•2912 19%
•2913 19%
•2914 19%
So your older, experienced advisors are people who bought when thought property was cheap, and now think it's expensive.
Hmmm.
UPDATE: I'll reiterate: people here are not saying property doubles forever, or that property is not a bit expensive right now. We are saying that it has always taken sacrifice to buy property, and that it IS possible to find property that represents a viable investment. The people who are saying this, though, have typically bought many properties, and have a very clear idea as to their target markets. Simply saying "property is too expensive" isn't enough information or analysis for us.
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I'm looking for evidence to support this assertion
''because house prices doubled in a period of around 12-18mths after the end of the 1987 stock market crash.''
I can see one quarter where there was 11% CG. Pretty big I agree, but this does not equate to doubling in 6 quarters even if that one quarter was replicated 6 times (which it wasn;t).
I take it, that Lizzies comment was a gross exageration so I'll ignore so we can get back to the main topic.
Two things here.
First, what do you think the Australian Government is doing, right now, to 'prop up the housing market'? There are some state stamp duty reductions, but not a lot else. FHOG is business as usual.
Second, I think you are confusing the performance of the overall market with that of a single property. We covered this previously, I'd encourage you to go back and re-read it. A single property in a decent area will almost always outperform the market average.
i haven't been able to find anything on newcastle as is all sydney focussed ... however, i do know that the house i bought in early 1988 for $74,000 (before the market rise) sold for $168,000 during the "stagnation" period.
i also know that a unit a friend had sold for $40,000 at the same time, yet was worth double within two years - and now worth just under $300,000.
ah found what i was looking for - paragraphs under graph 1 and graph 2:
http://www.residex.com.au/index.php?content=article17
but i will amend my statement to "just on two years" instead of 18 months ... although our personal case was 12-18mths as we must've bought with accidental spot on timing.
i accept yourr apology for claiming i was under the influence of "gross exaggeration".
Lol I haven't had 30 years experience, but even I knew about the boom and bust in that period. You sure you didn't mean 30 days of experience valuing 'things'?
If this is your typical source of advice, it is little wonder why your opinions are so jaded.
A property "owner" is not a property "investor"..... Try speaking to people that have purchased more than just their PPOR. The public service environment is not generally an easy place to find such people either...
Don't give our secrets away to the Trolls please!
Oh...alright; they won't do anything with the info anyway, and we need to help out the real folk who are new and will have a crack.
It really seems that this is the single thing that many people just don't understand.
So what ? Most of that will be due to capital gains.
They were right in 2002, what they didn't see coming was the mining boom. They were right in 2002 about the GFC too, the GFC was something every man and his dog saw coming.
People always get rich in bubbles, else there would be no bubble, it would be flat. The point here is that you could lose a lot if you buy in now and you cannot really afford the mortgage.
Negative gearing should be removed and land tax and capital gains tax drastically increased. Property investors have done ENORMOUS damage to this country which could take decades to repair.
That is simply not true.
No i believe what you say is not true.
Todays beginners do want a better standard to start with. Is that right or wrong i dont know. But its true for the majority.
You may be too young to remember? but the Hawke-Keating government tried that with the consequence that investors left the market, rents went through the roof and hurt their voter base.
It was shortly thereafter re-instated and back-dated.On the contracry, PIs provide accommodation to renters at vastly subsidised rates. The goverment has proven that it cannot build enough housing and get enough return from it to efficiently to take care of the demand. Hence, neg. gearing and the NAHA.
Very true. Some time ago we were looking for a FHB.
The requirements:
Brand new, 2-3brm all BIR, DLUG with remote, zoned A/C, spa bath......etc.
You get the idea. (and I have no issues with finding that for a FHB as a client, that's what we were paid to do. But that kind of property was his expectations as a first house.
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