Next Interest Rate Movement down?

[Aaron Sice]

Are you selling up then Aaron?

Yes mate, I am.

My goals were aligned for CG which is nothing but someone else's here-say, a false number.

While my position has held it's value but gone nowhere since 2008, I'll be realigning my goals for generating intrinsic value and cash-flow. Only now can I lament "opportunity cost".

Cheers.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Well here are a few lines for the bright ones amongst you to read between.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/moodys-downgrades-ratings-for-big-four-banks-20110518-1eso8.html

More expensive funds means more margin on rate hikes or individual rate hikes.

 

[Wunderbar]

Yeah I've heard bad stuff about WA - particularly Mandurah lol. Have some clients who bought there and it's a pretty rough place to get finance

 

[FormerLurker]

Yes mate, I am.

My goals were aligned for CG which is nothing but someone else's here-say, a false number.

While my position has held it's value but gone nowhere since 2008, I'll be realigning my goals for generating intrinsic value and cash-flow. Only now can I lament "opportunity cost".

Cheers.

Makes sense I'm a cashflow property investor myself for the SANF - you may not get a massive CG win but you won't get a massive drop either and however it goes money still walks through the door.

 

[FormerLurker]

Yeah I've heard bad stuff about WA - particularly Mandurah lol. Have some clients who bought there and it's a pretty rough place to get finance

When they had Rex Hunt flogging them off the writing was on the wall for the area to me

 

[Wunderbar]

Haha i didn't know rex hunt was involved! That's hilarious

 

[FormerLurker]

Haha i didn't know rex hunt was involved! That's hilarious

http://www.homeinwa.com.au/segment.php?id=1276

yep - I personally take all my financial advice from ex-football playing fishing enthusiasts.

 

[sash]

No to mention....the large losses some of the developments have taken!

http://www.homeinwa.com.au/segment.php?id=1276

yep - I personally take all my financial advice from ex-football playing fishing enthusiasts.

 

[sash]

Rates will head down soon if the GDP number this Wednesday is a shocker...as previously stated....I think Sep/Oct is looking good.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/all-signs-point-to-growth-slump-20110531-1fdv4.html

 

[MrCrumbpacker]

Rates will head down soon if the GDP number this Wednesday is a shocker...as previously stated....I think Sep/Oct is looking good.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/all-signs-point-to-growth-slump-20110531-1fdv4.html

Hmm....interesting, this agrees http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/05/ouch-rate-hike-off-the-table/

Maybe all the shouting about hikes is all that was needed, on the other hand, regardless of what the RBA does, wholesale money is still dearer for the fat four, and they never need much excuse to gouge.

 

[buzzlightyear]

Sash, the GDP number tomorrow based on comments made is expected to be negative given the natural disaster impacts and so won't change the game on IR's.

I guess if your IR prediction is correct, we would need next quarters figures to be substantially worse than the expected uptick. It would still have to be one of the biggest turnaround in policy directions from the RBA if they do reduce, given all their recent commentary.

 

[sash]

I think that the RBA has been using the media to reduce the pressure to increase rates.

The RBA jawboning is doing the job of rate rises. ....this is preferable to an actual rate rise which could tip the applecart.

The numbers post July will look so bad that talk will change from a rise to a cut....time will tell.

Sash, the GDP number tomorrow based on comments made is expected to be negative given the natural disaster impacts and so won't change the game on IR's.

I guess if your IR prediction is correct, we would need next quarters figures to be substantially worse than the expected uptick. It would still have to be one of the biggest turnaround in policy directions from the RBA if they do reduce, given all their recent commentary.

 

[DanielG]

I think that the RBA has been using the media to reduce the pressure to increase rates.

The RBA jawboning is doing the job of rate rises. ....this is preferable to an actual rate rise which could tip the applecart.

The numbers post July will look so bad that talk will change from a rise to a cut....time will tell.

I agree. There will be a "unexpected surprise cut" as the media will describe it. If we ever get back to 5 -6 5 year fixed rate...Im locking them in baby!

 

[Aaron Sice]

I heard through the grapevine that rates aren't going anywhere but serviceability requirements may loosen a little.......

 

[Cupcakes]

I think they might leave the rates unchanged and maybeeee they will cut them. I can't see them increasing them and if they do I think it will be a bit of a disaster actually!

 

[Sheryn]

IMHO I agree next IR movement has to be down otherwise economy will stall

I think that the RBA has been using the media to reduce the pressure to increase rates.

Sash
I agree with your statement the grassroots economy is not travelling well.

Building and associated trades, retail and OZ holiday tourism is suffering. I realise that not all sectors can be firing at the same time but middle income Oz is suffering.

I have recently negotiated a reduction in my IR for 3 x IP loans from 7.11% to 7.01%.


Cheers
Sheryn

 

[sash]

Sheryn....the GDP numbers were negative...but only for 1 qtr. Employment and retails sales and employment vacancies is still heading up...however building starts are down.

The key is to watch the next quarter numbers which will be released by the end of Aug. If get the perfect storm for number employment down (unemployment going up), inflation up, GDP down, retail sales down, and building starts down.....you can almost put money on a rate cut in Sept/Oct.

Incidently....if you have more than 700k in loans with one of the Big 6 banks ...you should be able to get a rate between 6.87 and 6.95%.

Sash
I agree with your statement the grassroots economy is not travelling well.

Building and associated trades, retail and OZ holiday tourism is suffering. I realise that not all sectors can be firing at the same time but middle income Oz is suffering.

I have recently negotiated a reduction in my IR for 3 x IP loans from 7.11% to 7.01%.


Cheers
Sheryn

 

[Deltaberry]

I think we're reading too much into this. Rates are going up... the RBA kindly warns us so we can embrace it, and some people take this to be some reverse psychology political statement...

 

[sash]

Given some of the latest economic data...unlikely.

As always time will tell.....I have left all my rates variable to take advantage of lower rates next year!

I have not confidence in the RBA since Glen Stevens took over. I think they have got it wrong.

I think we're reading too much into this. Rates are going up... the RBA kindly warns us so we can embrace it, and some people take this to be some reverse psychology political statement...

 

[Deltaberry]

Mine are variable too so I hope you're right.

But I like to expect the worst, and if it does fall/stay flat then that's great.