Rocky , The next Big Thing ??

[Jen]

I researched Rocky in Jan/Feb and went up there to look around. Yields are good and I nearly bought a duplex which looked fantastic. I felt uneasy though as I hadn't done a lot of due diligence and my shark-like RE agent avoided questions about tenants. Although I signed a contract I quickly got out of it when I finally found out from property managers with other RE agents that I should expect 4-6 weeks vacancy between tenants and in a duplex, they often will stay 6mths before looking for a house. That shot my yield to pieces. I admit that I haven't researched further and houses may be very different but I saw many vacant houses too.

Can anyone comment from experience...i.e longer than this property cycle?

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Astro, you have had time to post 6 knocking replies, but no time to show any numbers or evidence to back up your point. Why should you be taken seriously?? Don't bother wasting your time to reply, save it for producing your numbers.

On a more general note, the regional country town investment often sneaks up on the locals. Where we purchased last year(similar situation different town), the same opinion was offered by the locals. Things like, why invest here?, prices have already risen, unemployment is high etc.
Interestingly some of the so called bad areas(that had the highest yield) that everyone tells you to stay away from, have had the greatest cap growth in the last year.

Will the same type of growth follow in Rocky that has occurred elsewhere? I don't know, nobody does, but I much prefer to hear from people who have an interest in an area and are holding, than someone who talks up an area and is selling.

bye

 

[Aceyducey]

Sea_Change,

An excellent post, it's nice to hear more of the background info & your thinking on how you arrived at your conclusions.

We've briefly looked at Rockhampton & agree there is potential there, however due to finance timeframes and digesting our current renos, have largely regarded it, for our purposes, as a missed opportunity.

However if you are able to buy today I think that Rocky is worth investigating.

We may still buy there, it all depends on the shape of the market when we're making our next purchase.


I'm disappointed at the level of debate on this thread however.

It seems that only one person is willing to say they do not feel Rocky is a good buy and they cannot justify their opinion except by sniping - poor show!

Don't question the figures provided, provide your own & if you can't put up then shut up!!!!

I'd love to hear someone's views on why Rocky isn't such a good buy, backed up by solid logical reasoning & figures.

And they could illustrate their thinking by indicating where they believe is a good buy...and by putting their money where their mouth is.


Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[brains]

Ive been following this thread with interest and agree with Sea Change that Rocky has short term cap. growth potential. Forget the fundamentals and all the other due diligence facts, the point is investors are buying up there and its increasing demand and therefore price, so it looks good.

Even if Astro did come up with logical reasons why its a bad area to invest, it wouldnt matter as the rising prices do not rely on these.

I could have used 10 valid reasons to not buy in Logan 18 months ago and none of them mattered because as SC says, the price has doubled. Sometimes gut feeling goes a long way.

I have a feeling Rocky will be an excellent buy - short term - the fact that you can still get 8-9% yields is enough for me because its getting very hard to get that in regional NSW at the moment.

In 12 months Rocky will be offering 4-5% yields just like every area that has jumped and the knockers will be going.......DOH!!!!

By the way, Bill, did you get some AMP? Could have made a couple of grand with a few mouse clicks mate

 

[astroboy]

Once again comparing Logan, I never said Logan was a bad place to invest, again you can't compare these areas, See_Change is playing on the emotion that "they said Logan was bad but i proved them wrong" Big deal, haven't we all.
I really don’t know why I bother, this attitude is so typical of today. No-one wants a balanced view they only want to hear the good stuff. I hope the tables are readable and the font isn’t too small. I said I didn’t have time to do this for a while but everyone demanded figures even though S-C is reluctant to provide where his numbers are sourced from. I don’t have the time but won’t tolerate people commenting I don’t know what I’m talking about or questioning my integrity or questioning the validity of my opinions, never have and I’m not starting now. So here are some of my stats, I won’t list them all, that’s what I see as my competitive edge. Sleep is overrated anyway ;-)
This confirms my opinion that people have lost their objectivity in today’s market.
These are facts from reliable sources, all fully documented. Draw your own conclusions.
If you are not doing at least this amount of research before buying in an area you are simply speculating. If nothing else, this may give some of the newer investors a bit of a guide.

I don’t know if I want to play here anymore :-(


/forums/photopost/data/500/1268Rock_img1-med.jpg

/forums/photopost/data/500/1268rocky_img2.jpg

Population

“Only two out of the six local government areas in Rockhampton experienced population growth in the period between June 1994 and June 1999. Livingstone Shire grew by an average annual rate of 3.5%, while Fitzroy Shire recorded an annual growth rate of 1.0 percent. Rockhampton City recorded –0.1% growth”
Source: Queensland Government Office of Economic and Statistical Research

“Within the region, Rockhampton City is projected to remain the most populous local government area with a projected population of 60,600 persons by 2016. However, Rockhampton’s share of the region’s population is expected to decrease from 50.3% in 1996 to 43.7% in 2016”
Source: Queensland Government Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Aging Population

“The largest increases are expected to occur in the older age groups, particularly in the age groups between 45 years and 59 years. In contrast, the number of persons aged 0 to 14 years and 25 to 34 years are projected to decline over the 20 year period. However, while the number of persons in the 30-39 years age groups recorded an increase between 1986 and 1996, the number of persons in this age group are projected to decline between 1996 and 2006. There are projected to be proportionally more persons aged 35 years and over in the population in 2006 compared with 1986 ”
Source: Queensland Government Office of Economic and Statistical Research.

Employment

“At the 1996 Census, Retail Trade was the largest industry in the Rockhampton region, with 10,126 (13.4%) of the regions workforce, followed by the Manufacturing industry 7,797 (10.3%)”
Source: Queensland Government Office of Economic and Statistical Research

Economic Forecasts

Economic forecasts for the region are also declining expressed as and average of gross state product, business investment, gross state expenditure, overseas demand and other state economic measures. If you don’t believe me go do the research yourself. I’m tired and have other more pressing issues to deal with.

astroboy

 

[astroboy]

Well, I'm waiting....
you have all gone quiet and I know the detractors have read the thread (maybe not bill-l yet)

Penny-k thanks for the real life thoughts, I agree.
Jen, as above, some just don't want to listen tho.

Jamie, bit disappointed, time was the reason it wasn't easy to post, I did say I would tho (after initial little spit)

See_change, Bill_L and Aceyducey, give yourselves all triple uppercuts *whack, whack, whack*. I've put up, now dispute the facts (this'll be good), or shut up, your words.

Later,,,, maybe.
ab

 

[Aceyducey]

Astroboy,

BTW - I thought YOU were the detractor & Sea_Change was the detractee....

Yes we're all quaking in our boots

Frankly I read your post with the stats and thought - "he's got nothing"

I didn't see any need to reply as there was nothing you said worth replying to.

However, as you seem to think there is, I'll add a few notes.

1) Rocky has ben pointed as a short-term surge in CG not as a long-term high CG area. Basically the wave of CG boom across QLD is now rising in Rocky meaning it's a good area to buy now before the prices go up to the new high tide level. Sure prices will retrace a little in all probability, but you've still made the CG if you bought there & the rental return is decent.

2) Pop figures from 1994-99 are sweet for historic reference, but not really relevant. You don't buy because the population is going up and therefore fueling property prices - you buy because the boom is fueling property prices.....just like Tassie, which still has negative pop growth but has also seen a CG property boom.

3) Who cares about aging population at this point. While I have great concerns on its impact on property ownership over the next 30 years, right now boomers are still largely in the workforce & will be bleeding out over the next 20 years, so it has minimal effect on these type of short-term CG property purchase decisions.

4) So retail is the biggest industry - that's great! The area is a regional centre & therefore will grow in wealth & population while bleeding surrounding areas....If it was a one horse town (an abbatoir, mine, steel works) I'd be concerned, but with a nicely diversified economic base Rockhampton is self-sustaining & can afford higher property prices (which it will be getting).

5) Th ABS stats are nice. Of course they ARE six months out of date. The boom hit Rockhampton in the last six months....try looking at more recent figures for its effects on prices (what is the most current median again.....see SC's post).

So again I still don't see your argument...a series of old quotes from the QLD government website & some out-of-date ABS stats wouldn't be enough to make me buy in an area, and certainly aren't sufficient to make me decide that I would not buy in an area.

But I do commend you for trying Astroboy!

Why not walk away from the debate & go back to your own investing - we'll all see in a few years what the situation is and then people will see who was correct.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[pennyk]

cold showers everyone!!

One of the great things about investing is that different people see different things... as someone said, while we do a lot of due diligence, in the end our gut feel often leads us. Fortunately not everyone want to invest in Rocky - otherwise there'd be no property left there to buy. Some of us like capital growth, some yields. Some capital cities, some regional. Some see a fall in AMP shares, and think - gotta stay away from them. some see a fall and think - what a great time to buy..... In the end, it doesn't really matter. We each make our own decisions.
Each of us have our own money to spend and we should spend it how we want. While its great to discuss things and disagree on things, I think it's important in a community like this that disagreements aren't directed personally. I don't see what the big deal is if one person thinks Rocky is the best place to invest and another doesn't.... why do we have to take sides and fight like children!!!!!!! Surely the point of this community is to hear what people are thinking, challenge the thoughts we don't agree with and take away the good stuff. I am not really interested in petty disagreements - except to sit back in bemusement and wonder what the heck the problem is!! But if you disagree, feel free to crucify me publicly on the board. I'm thickskinned!!!
Penny

 

[astroboy]

Originally posted by Aceyducey
Astroboy,

Why not walk away from the debate & go back to your own investing - we'll all see in a few years what the situation is and then people will see who was correct.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

I guess we will do just that, I know, I will still be in a position to do exactly that.

You have thrown the gauntlet, do you have data to back your opinion ?

I haven't seen it, though your prior arguement had it as critical..

Where are your figures Ducey?...

Ducey, I still haven't seen a jolt to back your position.

Ducey, I,m looking forward to your more up to date stats. I have them, things look the same as official forecasts predicted. Looking forward to you proving me wrong though and verifying your numbers

Convince me the area is a goer.

C'mon to quote yourself, put up or shut up.

ab

 

[Aceyducey]

Astroboy,

As I said in my first post, I'm not currently buying (this week) cause I'm digesting our last buy & doing a few renos.....stay tuned though as we're looking at opportunities (and will move fast on an excellent one)

My prelim data on Rocky is not relevant - I said I agree with Sea_Change's view & why I agreed, his data is fine (and correlates with the research we've done, though we've done much less than him).

When you disagreed I was very interested in hearing your thinking and the figures behind it....and had to challenge you to get some kind of backing data from you.

Now I'm simply disappointed because you have not provided a case for your view.

I'm not interested in convincing you, I'm interested in well-supported views and thinking of other experienced investors.

Penny, good post - can't say that I feel I'm actually arguing right now, but I agree my posts could be read in that way. Mostly I want to hear good well-supported debate (on both sides). I appreciate the time Sea-Change put into his post - and he gets no benefit from it - and would like to see any who have a different view to respond in kind.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[TheBacon]

Hehe I love a bit of 'argy bargy' !!

Astro:
I agree with you regarding population; seems to be stagnant or declining in Rocky.

Also unemployment is high (9.3%).

However; high unemployment is quite common in regional Australia and is not necessarily an omen of a towns decline.

I agree that there are some issues that an investor must take into account if looking to buy in Rocky.

The other stats were neutral to positive in my opinion.

In my opinion you received a bit of abuse because you started the abuse; you said somebodies stats were crap and that they had a hidden agenda, to deceive investors into purchasing in the area.

Statements like;
“So you have finished buying, your post is similar to a x-tier marketing blurb. It is obviously in your interest to continue to push prices up in the area and encourage interest particularly from the southern sector ”, And;
“Maybe you should ditch medicine and go into marketing ”;
are directed at the person, are derogatory (sorry marketing people ) and slanderous. This is why you were attacked.

Also, the stats you have used do not all back your claims; some do, some neutral, some agree with see-change’s views. Further you have referenced poorly, where are your references for the economic forecasts? What are the dates, authors and websites for the other quotes? Also your spelling and grammar was not perfect in a number of your posts.

You probably did not mean to offend, but you did offend.

Please do keep contributing your knowledge, research and insights, just dont attack the other people on here...

TheBacon

 

[astroboy]

Originally posted by Aceyducey
Astroboy,

My prelim data on Rocky is not relevant - I said I agree with Sea_Change's view & why I agreed, his data is fine (and correlates with the research we've done, though we've done much less than him).

When you disagreed I was very interested in hearing your thinking and the figures behind it....and had to challenge you to get some kind of backing data from you.

Now I'm simply disappointed because you have not provided a case for your view.

Aceyducey

Your prelim data isn't relevant ???? We don't even know what it is.....

you agree with see_change.... is that the same poster(?) who won't reveal where the numbers came from ?
Your, (mine and the ABS and the QLD gov have it wrong) data says otherwise,,, so publish it right here right now.

I haven't provided a case for my point of view ??????

Show me and the QLD state gov and abs are wrong
and you know it all.

What was my post with the *official* stats for.

I may have defended you in the past ducey, now give yourself a triple uppercut (whack, whack, whack) you are a goose.

ab

 

[Aceyducey]

Originally posted by astroboy
I may have defended you in the past ducey, now give yourself a triple uppercut (whack, whack, whack) you are a goose.

Honk! Honk!

A happy goose at least

Cheers,

Aceyducey

 

[see_change]

Sorry about the delay , but I was busy at work when you posted you figures , and have only just got home.

I think the main comments you were making about rocky were negative growth , rising unemployment and an aging population.

Lets look at the negative growth first.

OK, the ABS figures , state that from 91 to 2001 the population fell from 59393 to 58382. Yep that 's a fall . But what happens after that .

To quote the figures YOU have supplied

“Within the region, Rockhampton City is projected to remain the most populous local government area with a projected population of 60,600 persons by 2016."

So let me see , If the population is going to go from 58382 to 60,600 ... geee

It's predicted to grow Your stats Astroboy..

Lets have a further look at the population fugures .

“Within the region, Rockhampton City is projected to remain the most populous local government area with a projected population of 60,600 persons by 2016. However, Rockhampton’s share of the region’s population is expected to decrease from 50.3% in 1996 to 43.7% in 2016”

So we've already worked out from the figures that you have provided that Rocky is predicted to grow. If the population of rocky is going to get smaller as a proportion of the whole area ( by a reasonable percentage ) and rocky growing, that must mean that

Rockhampton is in a growing region......


Now lets have a look at your claim that there was rising unemploment . The unemployment figures which you have so thoughtfully provided show that

In 1991 the unemployement rate was 10.5 %

In 2001 the unemploment rate was 9.3 % so that's a rise in unemployment of 9.3 -10.5 , which equals, negative 1.2 %

what.... negative 1.2%.... ooo, sorry Astroboy ,

Unemployment has actually fallen

If you look the largest emploment sector, it's retail . This goes along with the observation that Rockhampton is a service centre for the surrounding area, which as we've just established is expected to grow.


Now lets get back to your third point which is that of aging population. Yep I must conced that the figures do back up your claim that the population is getting older. One out of three isn't bad.

But does it really matter. If you have an aging population ( this is speculation on my behalf so feel free to argue against it ) you will actually have a demand for a greater number of residences , as older people tend not to live in larger house holds.

Any way if I have the choice of renting on of my IP's to a retired couple on the pension or a family with three kids I know who I'd be chosing.

I'm not sure of he point that you're trying to make with the price /rental figures you've provided. If you would like to comment on what you feel they show , I am happy to respond,

But actually hang on

Why should I bother.

You have been ridiculing my post, saying that your stats will show what a dump Rocky is. In fact they don't .

Your posts prior to you last post were bad enough , In particualar I took offense to your statement

(and your chosen scaling can't but help them look good)

This implies that i have deliberatly manipulated the axis in some way to make them look better. How can a x-y graph with the vertical scale starting at zero misrepresent he figures.

Your failure to deliver any worthwhile critisism when you had the time shows you ... ah bugger it . I let other people draw their own conclusions.

see change

 

[astroboy]

Do your best, if you think your interpretation of the data says buy, do it. I couldn't give a rats.......

 

[always_learning]

In any boom the people who buy low growth areas at the top of the market are always burnt the most. How many years in places like Logan did investors have to hold to get their money back if they paid "market" price at the peak of the 90's boom ? IMHO It is better to pay top-dollar for a high growth area than top dollar in a low growth area.

Because of this I think it is very dangerous to buy what looks like cheap property, but with 'inner city" yeilds. Basically failing the "Rental reality" principles. Buying in Rocky, a place with 60K people when yeilds fall to 4%...dangerous!

See_change I think is on the money and in the money, he has identified a market that is rising and set to rise more. See_change has also purchased excellent yeilding investments; good yeilds and backed by expectionas of growth from reasonable analysis of the potential for growth backed by some on the ground feeling! As See_change suggests, excellent short term buying!

And based on the principle that we all must come to our own conclusions and not trust any single person for our decisions people who follow see_change and buy,buy,buy based on what See_change says...deserve to be burnt. That is not to say see_change is right or wrong, good or bad, just we must always be responsible for our own choices.

 

[Bill.L]

Hi all,

Not much I can add to what has already been stated by Acey and See_change, though brains summed it up very well about those high yields disappearing due to cap growth.

Astro, before you posted your info, I had already stated that things like static population and high unemployment rates HAD NOT stopped other areas from enjoying remarkable growth. Why do you think they will stop this particular town?? I have the feeling that you just don't understand property investment at all!!

OFF TOPIC

Brains, AMP shares? Don't get me started. I still know that the type of action you took and the result you received will only reinforce bad trading habits, the market is like that. To persue it further we should go to another thread.

bye

 

[intoproperty]

Please forgive my ignorance this is my first ever post and a bit nervous.
Astroboy is the only person i have seen to post real figures, I have checked and they are accurate (and to my suprise available!!)
No one else has done this, so I dont understand, I did a search on dillegence and expected this was what I would see, if this isn't it could you tell me just what I am looking for
Sorry if I am upsetting anybody, I have started to read 00-130 properties and thought this information would be important to your buying stratergy.Thanks
bh.

 

[brains]

Rockhampton property owners have been conspicous by their absence. Surely some forum members from the above group can comment on the current situation in Rocky re vacancy rates, recent cap. growth...etc....

Beside that, some people will buy property for a 8-10% yield regardless of the cap. growth, if you can get some growth up then its surely a bonus.

 

[Jen]

Has anyone found out what the vacancy rates are for Rocky?