2 more interest rates rises in 2008 likely...

What Will Happen in 2008 onwards

  • Nothing Much will change, prices will increase at same pace

    Votes: 33 33.7%

  • Consumer Confidence goes down, credit crisis etc. prices stagnate for a few years

    Votes: 27 27.6%

  • Next 12 months =best time to buy, as confidence down, expectations of sellers is lower/to be lower

    Votes: 28 28.6%

  • Worst Realistic case scenario, prices drop 5-10% across OZ

    Votes: 10 10.2%
  • Total voters
    98
  • Poll closed .
HandyAndy888 said:
Its hard to stay optimistic with Labour...:rolleyes:

More and more bargains will pop up on the market, therefore we will see some stagnation in prices...as I see it, our usual pre-Easter price increase may not occur in 2008, but hopefully the September period will push prices again...:)
Click to expand...

HA888, at your age, you WANT a stagnant period. Give you a few years to get that income up, pick up some more properties and catch the next cycle, no?
Alex
 
My prediction...

Interest rates to go up one or possibly two more times, then we will follow US and UK lead and start to lower rates.

Is it a good time to buy? That depends which state we're talking about...

Next 12 months will be best time to buy in Sydney. I think Sydney prices will start to pick up quickly over the next few years.

Best time to buy in Melbourne and Brisbane was early this year, but there will still be good opportunities in 2008.

Adelaide & Canberra growth to slow.

Perth & Darwin to fall.

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
pi2012 said:
Hi H888. What so special about the Easter and September that push the prices up?
Click to expand...

In my experience looking at prices, I have anecdotally noticed that demand goes up around these times...people start to recover from the Christmas period around easter, and in September they are over the tax time hump....
 
Shadow said:
My prediction...

Adelaide & Canberra growth to slow.

Perth & Darwin to fall.

Cheers,

Shadow.
Click to expand...

Perth to fall?

Not likely dude.

I sold my IP first home open 2 weeks ago - an 88sqm 3x1.

My personal house here was sold without even going on the market.

There were 3 competing buyers for my block of land.

900 immigrants a week (Nov)

Perth to SLOW - not fall.
 
Blue Card! said:
Perth to fall?

Not likely dude.

I sold my IP first home open 2 weeks ago - an 88sqm 3x1.

My personal house here was sold without even going on the market.

There were 3 competing buyers for my block of land.

900 immigrants a week (Nov)

Perth to SLOW - not fall.
Click to expand...

Hmmm... people said the same about Sydney in 2003... that Sydney would slow not fall. Sydney fell. Same will happen in Perth. Most analyst's research is predicting 5-10% falls in the Perth market overall.

That does not mean that some individual properties like your own won't grow or keep their value. But in general, across the market as a whole, I think Perth will drop. Check out the report below...

http://www.jenman.com.au/news_subscriber_item.php?id=14&Section=Reports#perth

"Lets face it: it makes no sense that Perth has the most expensive houses in Australia outside of Sydney. It shows that prices were driven too high in the recent boom – and now a correction in inevitable. Why should the typical Perth house be worth $120,000 more than the typical Brisbane house? Queensland has a buoyant economy too and plenty of population growth – the Perth market simply became overheated.

The death of the Perth boom is confirmed by the latest RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index which records no growth in the medians for both houses and units in the first seven months of 2007. It also shows that typical houses now take 10 weeks to sell in Perth, the slowest market except for Darwin. It's a similar result with units, with the typical Perth unit selling for 8% less than the asking price.

RP Data charts a quite startling decline in sales volumes in Perth – the number of houses being sold in mid-2007 was about one-third of the levels of a year earlier. RP Data says: "Perth has moved further into the down phase of the market cycle. Over the June quarter the median house price fell 7.3%."

Further evidence of a stuttering market lies in auction clearance rates, which have been consistently below 40% this year.

Herron Todd White's September issue of The Month in Review says there are three times as many houses on the market now as there were in mid-2006, which is giving buyers plenty of choice and negotiating power. "Activity in the market sector above the median house price appears to have stalled, with change-up buyers hesitant due to the slowdown in value growth and the prohibitive cost of trading up," the report says.

Perth's declining status is reflected in the Residential Property Prospects 2007-2011 report from economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel. The report predicts plenty of house price growth over the next three years for Brisbane, Melbourne and Adelaide, and moderate growth for Sydney and Hobart – but forecasts that values will decrease in Perth by around 5%."

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
hi lamingtons,

you are watching for this:

U.S. Nov. PPI up 3.2% -- largest growth since 1973
Wholesale energy goods price growth hits new record; core prices up 0.4%

CPI out tonight.. dont expect it too be too bad, as they strip off food and energy costs... however sooner or later these high raw materials costs are going to end up with the consumers.. that is ultimately what to look for..

come on oil .. forget 100usd, lets go for 125..
 
hi,

not being a doom and gloomer..

trying to be realist .. being a realist you have to look at both sides of the fence. you cant simply ignore the 'negative news' (note: these things may be a negative to many people but have been a positive for me and i will continue to take advantage of them)..

please point me to the 'positives' you see ( i assume here we are talking about economy, investments etc rather than philosphical stuff).
 
trendsta said:
hi lamingtons,

you are watching for this:

U.S. Nov. PPI up 3.2% -- largest growth since 1973
Wholesale energy goods price growth hits new record; core prices up 0.4%

CPI out tonight.. dont expect it too be too bad, as they strip off food and energy costs... however sooner or later these high raw materials costs are going to end up with the consumers.. that is ultimately what to look for..

come on oil .. forget 100usd, lets go for 125..
Click to expand...

i am no expert on oil, but I did read yetsrday that it is primarily the hedge funds that are behind the current oil price and it should really be about $80. he said that $100 couldnt be sustained. i think that was kohler's report.
 
Ausprop said:
i am no expert on oil, but I did read yetsrday that it is primarily the hedge funds that are behind the current oil price and it should really be about $80. he said that $100 couldnt be sustained. i think that was kohler's report.
Click to expand...

Hi Ausprop,

though the problem is since 02, oil has risen nearly five fold , from below 20 a barrel. Since few years ago, wheat, corn, soy, coffee, etc have also risen considerable over few years.. A longer term trend is set..

These costs have not been taken into account at all .. even if oil drops to 80, it will persist around 80.. with growing demand from india, china etc
competing with demand from developed countries..

sooner or later these PERSISTENT cost increase will be passed on to consumer... we have also been blessed with china producing cheap good on slave income.. china is also experiencing higher costs of living and by producers.. sooner or later they will have to raise prices or devalue thri currency.. either way this will really hit western countries hard ..
 
trendsta said:
Hi Ausprop,

though the problem is since 02, oil has risen nearly five fold , from below 20 a barrel. Since few years ago, wheat, corn, soy, coffee, etc have also risen considerable over few years.. A longer term trend is set..

These costs have not been taken into account at all .. even if oil drops to 80, it will persist around 80.. with growing demand from india, china etc
competing with demand from developed countries..

sooner or later these PERSISTENT cost increase will be passed on to consumer... we have also been blessed with china producing cheap good on slave income.. china is also experiencing higher costs of living and by producers.. sooner or later they will have to raise prices or devalue thri currency.. either way this will really hit western countries hard ..
Click to expand...

it will be passed on but I'm not sure I would call that inflation per se.

we should probably distinguish between an increase in prices and problem inflation. a genuine increase in the cost of producing / importing things will show up in the headline inflation figures but is not really 'problem' inflation like we had in the past. We have to consume less of other things of course which is bad (living standard drop) to accomodate the higher prices. And the adjustment will impact the headline inflation statistics but only for a short period of time. The inflation statistics are a relative statistic - i.e. the prices of things relative to the price of things the previous month.

But when prices rise because prices are rising (month in month out) then you have an inflation problem - it is inflation based on expectations of inflation. That could be where we are heading.
 
watch america

l did not realize how much of a response I would receive from such a small statement. I am not talking doom and gloom but we are in a world economy of which money is just another commodity, if America's sub prime interest rate problems persist it could tighten the cash market around the world giving rise to further rate rises in Australia, outside the reserve's increases. (because we all know how tough banks are doing it just now). Having been through a period of paying off my own place at 17.5% I am conscious of debt to equity ratio in my investments, it dosn't stop me but to ignore such things would make me uncomfortable in my investments, some risk is good it has got me into this lovely position I am currently in, ready to take another bite of the cherry.


cheers
 
Jase H said:
...Then the RBA's job will be done for it by the financial markets as the price of credit goes up and up, a reversal of the tightening margins since the ealry 90's. Not a bad thing in the long term i'd reckon
Click to expand...

Not a bad thing for prepared investors in the short term, either.
Alex
 
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