Abbey, WA for Growth this year

[MTR]

Hi All

For those interested in John Linderman's property predictions, in particular WA - he has picked Abbey, beachside town between Geographe Bay and Busselton as booming this year. Prices vary from $400K - $1M.

For the record John Linderman has a track record of 92% accuracy.

I don't believe markets in south west are currently moving, but then again I have not been watching this market closely and perhaps have missed something.

On the positive side there are no more land releases for Abbey this could help keep this market tight.

I will be watching this area over the next 12 months see whether he gets this one right.

Anyone else watching this market??

Cheers
MTR

 

[pierso]

Hi All

.........

For the record John Linderman has a track record of 92% accuracy.

...............

Be interested to know the source of this. Not doubting necessarily, just interested. Sounds impressive.

 

[Ausprop]

he made these interesting comments

"There are a number of opportunities. I think the first one is the sheer volume of retirees that will be moving away from capital cities over the next few years. 20% of our population is 55 and over; a lot of those people will be moving. There are a lot of coastal areas that will be booming in price over the next few years.

There?s also another element there, which is tourism. I think with the growing Chinese middle class, a lot of people will be coming over from China as tourists, and causing mini-housing booms in areas where tourism flourishes. For example, coastal towns like Port Douglas, where you?ve got a lot of people moving there to support the tourism industry that?s growing.

Look at those two elements: the potential for retirees moving in and the potential for tourism."

 

[Aaron Sice]

Which is why ive been pouring over your block making sure its perfect.

 

[Peter Parker]

But aren't retirees a one-hit wonder?

They come in waving banknotes from their liberated super and sold Claremont or Attadale house, but from then it's downhill as their capital dries up.

Unless their are lots of fresh waves of retirees bringing new money in (with similar tastes to the last lot who found Abbey the go) I'm not sure that the area has the economic base for consistent appeal, capital growth and even people doing up their own homes.

Take Mandurah for instance. Lots of retirees but a terrible local employment base with no industry. You've got retail, aged care, real estate and low wage service sector jobs but not much of your high end jobs.

Mandurah (and numerous places in Queensland) shows that tourism is fickle - at one time Rockingham and Mandurah were family tourist spots - more recently with improved mobility people have gone 'down south' to Margarets and skipped 'up north' in favour of Bali.

Although if you were into funeral parlours, private hospitals, aged care services, trailer parks or construction (subdividing houses and building villas) then it might be a great place to set up a business and do stuff. But for the passive rentier investor, maybe not.

A cheaper place in Bunbury could be nearer more jobs and attract have tenants with rising rather than stagnant incomes (and therefore capability to pay rent).

 

[MTR]

I think good points Spider.

Personally I am not interested in investing in south west as I just don't see it taking off for a while, I believe there is still an oversupply and not yet recovered, just too early.

Also, if looking at building in south west the costs are so much higher than Perth.

Have to review this post in 12 months, see whether he got this one right.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Bunbury very realistically valued. 1% vacany and 4% pa.

 

[Ausprop]

Which is why ive been pouring over your block making sure its perfect.

awesome! save me from slapping a project home on and just milking it as a cashcow

 

[Ausprop]

Also, if looking at building in south west the costs are so much higher than Perth.

this is a widely held view that I encourage

 

[spanna]

He was saying Mandurah was going to go up around 20 - 30% at a conference / "Sprooking" thing i went to last year... I haven't seen it move much at all.....His theory of looking at median sale price vs numbers listed and looking to see a decrease in median over consecutive months and decreased number of houses on the market and an increase in sales, seems flawed to me!