Anchorage Thread Closed?

[asdf]

Heres to continuing from Ausprop and Kenneth's discussions as I'm sure theres a few who might still be interested in what the "locals" have to say.

Kenneth is right in saying that the top end still has considerable bids here in Syd simply because theres no quality homes up for sale. Theres still those who just need a roof over their heads. There was an article in today's SMH about a couple breaking the record for a street over 17 other reg'd bidders ($1M for a terrace). Why would you register if you weren't really interested? To me thats a sign of underlying demand from what I can only imagine are home buyers rather than investors. So they won't pay crazy prices but they will buy when the price is right. Then I attended an auction in Ryde on Sat for a 3x1 with about 550m2 which had a single vendor's bid @ $640k. Would only rent for $350 p/wk if ur lucky. Quality homes in good loc will sell even here in Syd but theres no doubt that the general market is very much void of investors.

As to whether prices are coming off in Anchorage, I actually think this will bode well for the future prices. Blocks have increased nearly 100% in 18mths. Clearly this is unsustainable and a lot of latter investors will be feeling the pinch on the -'ve cash flow. Frankly the more investors who liquidate their holdings to home buyers, the better it would be for the medium term prospect of the estate. I will not be surprised if over 50% of the last 2 stages are owned by investors. We might be in for some kind of "flush out" period where investors can no longer afford to hold on to blocks where the cap gains are no longer there. I am seeing similar experiences up in SE Qld where investors have bought into earlier stages a few years back and are now putting these blocks back on the market some 50-100% more - after the market has well and truly slowed.

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear ASDF,

1. Yes, It's great pity that the original thread is now closed as I am thinking to further continue with this thread to track the market development and follow this particular Anchorage Estate market development down into its Slump Phase, so that it can provide a good property investment education for the future "would-be" and new investing members regarding what to truly expect om the ground during the various stages of a property cycle in Perth.

2. Perhaps, the Moderator could kindly consider "re-opening" the thread again so as to allow our 2 posts to be re-included in the original thread, please?

3. Anyway, back to your post again, I do not personally think that the land prices in the Anchorage Estate are so "un-realistically high" presently such that it will drop in the medium term as drastically as those which were last reported in Coomera area in the Goldcoast property market whereby some of the land speculators have to re-sell their vacant lands at some 20% price discount from their original purchase price.

4. However, I agree with you that the Anchorage Estate will be better off in the near future with more home occupiers and lesser rental properties for this particular Estate.

5. For your kind update, please.

6. Thank you.


regards,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Ausprop]

for the life of me I can't see why they sold so heavily to the investors anyway when there was so much demand from local owner occupiers. The estate has been dragged down by price driven house and land packages. Drive around Singleton Beach Estate and then the later stages of Anchorage and you will see the difference. Capricorn has this well and truly under control and I expect that to be 1st class.

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear All,

1. Does anyone has any idea why is happening to the Stage 2 Release of the Townhouse on the Anchorage?

2. It seems that Australand has officially withdrawn all the Stage 2 townhouses for sale, off the plan, from the market together with all its marketing signboards outside the Anchorage Estate?

3. Some of the Stage 1 townhouses at the lakefront seem to be progressing well. It looks like that they are going to be completed at the end of this year.

4. For your kind update, please.

5. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[asdf]

for the life of me I can't see why they sold so heavily to the investors anyway when there was so much demand from local owner occupiers. The estate has been dragged down by price driven house and land packages.

Guilty as charged! Perhaps I should pass it over to a home owner to "spruce" it up a bit...?

 

[AUSPROP.]

yeh take one for the team mate

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear All,

1. Although the Spring Season has arrived, the house sale activity in the Anchorage Estate seems to have slowed down quite a bit.

2. More vacant lands and houses are being listed for sale and taking much longer time to sell in the present market conditions.

3. Many of the vendors are starting to be realistic about their asking price as the buying inquiries have dropped down significantly. Many of the vendors are now starting to lower their asking price by some $10,000 on the average and not expecting sale to take place above their own asking price unlike the previous trend some 3-6 months ago.

4. As I drove around the Anchorage Estate this morning, I do not even notice a single "sold" sign. Some of the properties reportedly "under-contract/ under-offer" since August 2006, are still there after more than 45 days already.

5. for your kind update and further comments/discussion, please.

6. Thank you

regards,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear All,

1. According to REIWA, investors made up some 32% of all property sales in Perth in the June 2006 quarter, some 8 % higher than previously.

2. The 1st homebuyer market sales has also dropped some 6% down to 17% of the total market sales.

3. For your kind update and further comments/discussion,please.

4. Thank you.

regfards,
Kenneth KOH

 

[<KS>]

I just dont get it.

I consider the Anchorage Estate to be a very nice location, yet it seems that the Harrington Waters Estate is commanding much better sale prices....weird.

I believe the fact that the Anchorage stages were sold so quick has lead to a spread out and overall 'unfinished' look.

Harrington Waters land releases are few and far between and they seem to wait for buildings to catch up before releasing the next stage.

I believe that when more Rockingham/Kwinana/North Mandurah people wanting to settle into a PPOR set their sights on the Anchorage that sales prices will settle and the % of owner occupiers will increase greatly.

<KS>

 

[TheAnalyst]

Kenneth,

I have no idea what message you are trying to sell over Many posts in recent months in this forum.

The only purpose you are doing I guess is to talk down the market as you were talking up the ANCHROAGE estate before to serve your own purpose -- you had few blocks and built on them. Subsequently you sold them few months ago and made a bit of money. You seem the most experienced man in the property market and know the peak and bottom.

If you think you are so wise, just keep it to youself to make more money, rather than tell us because we do not have the same view as you have.

I am not saying you can not view your points. You are most wellcome. However, the way you are doing has been out of proportion. It makes me think you are delibrately talking down the market.

Please shut up if you do not have anything valuable.

 

[muney]

here here!!!! couldnt agree more!! kenneth, there is a song and i dont know who its by but it goes along the lines of "you say it best, when you say nothing at all.."
maybe theres something in that song you could perhaps take away and sit on?

 

[oc1]

Please shut up if you do not have anything valuable.

An angry "Anchorage Estate" investor???

Oscar

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Kenneth,

The only purpose you are doing I guess is to talk down the market as you were talking up the ANCHROAGE estate before to serve your own purpose -- you had few blocks and built on them. Subsequently you sold them few months ago and made a bit of money. You seem the most experienced man in the property market and know the peak and bottom.

However, the way you are doing has been out of proportion. It makes me think you are delibrately talking down the market.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Dear TheAnalyst,

1. Care to further clarify on your feedback and further elaborate on your own thinking on the following statements made:

a. "the way you are doing has been out of proportion. It makes me think you are delibrately talking down the market."

b. "The only purpose you are doing I guess is to talk down the market as you were talking up the ANCHROAGE estate before to serve your own purpose."

2. On what basis, do you come to this kind of conclusions???

3. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH

 

[stretchy]

Oh not this again...

 

[Kennethkohsg]

I have no idea what message you are trying to sell over Many posts in recent months in this forum.
.

*************************
Dear TheAnalyst,

1. There is no "message" to sell at all except to learn about the actual truth about the real market situation itself and how the property cycle actually operates within the Perth proeperrty market itself for the purpose of my own self-education purposes.

2. I want to be able to closely observe, monitor and to learn more about how the various aspects/things within the Perth property market will actually evolve out, especially at the top of the property cycle and how things will develop on the ground as it will eventually enters into its Slump Phase subsequently, using the Anchorage Estate as a case-study which I actually live in now.

3. I learn best through the exchange of views especially with members who share contrary views with mine, observing the same market.

4. The Perth property market is an unique market in/of itself. It is quite different from its Eastern Estate counterparts where there is only one property cycle every 10 years.

5. This present Perth property boom is also an unique one as a sort of "super-boom", which is said to come only once every 20?/100? years. Will things be truly different this time as many bullish members are suggesting here?

6. I remain "open-minded" and will see things for myself as the actual market further evolves out on a real-time basis.

7. I have previously "gone down" once the downside of the property cycle in the Goldcoast property market. Fortunately, I was able to successfully exit out from the same market in late 2003 when the new property cycle started to peak then. I was then investing in Australia from Singapore, as an overseas investor on a part-time basis.

8. However, I was not actively monitoring the various aspects of the real market situation in Australia then.

9. Consequently, have experienced a complete "roller-coaster" ride through the property cycle at the Goldcoast property market, I still do not truly know what exactly to expect from the market as it peter off from its market peak and move into its Slump Phase eventually. All I know is that I did not like the "roller coaster" ride specially for the downward leg of the property cycle as well as the long waiting game as the market remains stagnant for a few more years before it actually re-enters into its new upswing cycle stage.

10. While I have read Kieran Trass's' book regarding the property cycle, it remains so as a sort of head knowledge to me, though I must acknowledge that it does provide me with a useful framework to try to understand the property market at various stages of the property cycle and to know what to expect with respect to the various aspects of market developments as its early warning (telling) indicators of the market movements.

11. Theory and practice can be different experiences and most of time they are indeed! Thus, with each market highly unique in/of itself, there is still a lot of things for me to learn for my own self-education and to further improve on my own limited investing knowledge and skills.

12. To me, this property investing journey is not just a form of wealth creation path, it is also part of my own spiritual journey to learn more the truth about myself, about other people and about God and His creation story on earth.

13. For your kind update, please.

14. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH

 

[asdf]

Sorry I re-instigated this post again. Lets not all get a narky at each other. If you don't like it, don't click on this thread again. I for one would like to know whats going on in Anchorage and I'm sure other members as well, albeit not many of us. Could be a pre-cursor of things to come in other estates down there? Lakelands, Baldivis, Secret Harbour through Singleton, Madora right down to Meado Springs. I don't know but extra info never hurt anyone.

For those interested IMO - I agree with Kenneth that theres a slow down in both sales and rentals. Took me 2 months to find a tenantin Anchorage which settled for $280 p/wk. Perhaps its the slow winter months? or start of the bear market we've all been waiting for? The next 3 months will really tell us whats going to happen over there. This time last year, land sales all slowed down and within 2 months, word got out and every Tom, Dick and Harry was camping out for blocks. They are now releasing sub 400m2 blocks in Somerly for $200k mark. Ridiculous! You couldn't give them away for $130k last year. Heck, you couldn't even buy em cut up that small. So yes the prices have run hard hence a pull back would actually be quite good for this otherwise insane market.

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Drive around Singleton Beach Estate and then the later stages of Anchorage and you will see the difference.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Dear Ausprop,

1. I'm not sure whether this is a fair comparision : "Beachside Estate" Vs Coastal Estate"?

2. As far as statistics from REIWA shows that as at 31st August 2006, the median and the average house price for a 4-bedroom house sold in the various suburbs, are as follows:

a. Rockingham - $367,500 (Median) -$374,393(Ave)

b.Shoalwater - $460,000 (Median) -$559,917(Ave)

c.Safety Bay (Harrington Waters Estate included) -$385,000(median) -$417,899(Ave)

d.Port Kennedy - $348,000(median) - $352,802(Ave)

e.Secret Harbour -$427,500 (median) - $450,793(Ave)

f.Baldivis - $400,000(median) - $433,702(Ave)

g. Singleton -$445,000 (median) - $464,963(Ave)

3. Thus, depending from which part of the Anchorage Estate that you are looking at, there is a big difference in both the median and average 4 x2 house price between one which is physically located in that part of the Estate classified as part of the Rockingham suburb as compared to one which is located at the Shoalwater suburb side of the same Estate... at least given the different land sale pricings by the same developer, Australand through the various Land Release Stages.

4. The other thing which we need to bear in mind for comparsion purposes is the motto that "Land appreciates while, Buildings depreciate". So what are you focussing at, exactly for your own comparison purpose when you make the a/m comment?

5. A similar comparsion can also be made between Princeton Estate and Roslea Estate at Stirling suburb which are located at opposite end of the same the Karriynyup Road area.

6. Although the land at Roslea Estate was last marketed some $100,000 less than that in the nearby Princeton Estate in 2004/2005 period, yet the higher capital appreciation rate achieved was much better in the Roslea Estate than in the Princeton Estate ( reportedly as a result of lower cost outlay and land prices), despite the Princeton Estate having more open lakes, a bigger, well-designed and higher quality community landscaping area.

7. One of the lessons that I have learnt recently from my friend's own experience in investing into the Roslea Estate is that although the Princeton Estate was originally planned to be a more up-market estate than Roslea Estate, with more lakes and higher quality and better-designed community landscaping areas, with the same limited budget for purchasing the PPOR house and having to spend some additional $100,000 for the land purchase at Princeton Estate, the owners may not be able to build bigger or better designed/more expensive double-storey homes for themselves at Princeton Estate than that what they would be able to so, have they purchased the land and build their own PPOR house at the nearby Roslea Estate instead.

8. For your kind update and further comments/discussion, please.

9. I look forward to learning from you further, please.

10. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear All,

1. I have just been informed that Lot 1226, lakefront vacant land block (510 m2) at the corner of Fisher Street and Alkimos Street, has recently been sold for A$330,000.

2, Can anyone help to confirm/disconfirm this sale data, please.

3. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Dear All,

1. I am presently in the process of uptending my loan for Lot 2012, 26 Eldon Street Shoalwater WA 6169 at the Anchorage Estate.

2. Initial bank valuation outcome given to me by La Trobe for this lakefront (500m2) land block was only $275,000 in early October 2006.

3. It was last purchased for $160,000 in Feb 2006 and last valued through La Trobe for $250,000 in June 2006, thereby enabling me to achieve the "Zero Deposit" status i.e all the monies used for purchasing this vacant land are effectively now the borrowed bank monies (OPM), with a nett/additional $17,500 actual cashflow back into my pocket already, having recovered back all my initial original investment capital.

4. Presently, REM RE Agency is already marketing the non-lakefront block in the anchorage Estate for as high as $349,000 while others are marketing some vacant lands there for $290,000.

5. Even a smaller non-lakefront block along Fisher Street has been known to be sold for as high as $279,000 in April 2006.

6. After providing some recent comparable sale data from my own field research to the La Trobe and its appointed valuer for a valuation review, they have now re-valued the same piece of lakefront land at Lot 2012 for $320,000, some A$45,000 higher, amidst the present rising albeit slower growth market environment.

7. Thus, Lot 2012 has effectively increased 100% and doubled in value from Feb 2006 to October 2006 period, as far as La Trobe and I are concerned.

8. Consequently, I am expected to receive another A$52,500 worth of additional cashflow/ bank monies borrowings funds from La Trobe in due course.

9. Moral of the story and lessons which I have learnt from this incident are as follows:

a. Professional opinions are now highly "subjective", given the conflicting market signals and different professional opinions. It can easily vary by some $45,000 even though the same Perth-based valuer is used/concerned for the same property/land.

b. Valuers rely only on actual completed sale transactions data to review their own valuation outcome, not based on other professionals' opinions.

c. While Perth property market is still growing, it is already showing signs of slowing down somewhat.

d. Despite the hot market fever cooling down, some vendors are still simply asking "ridiculous"/ "unrealistic" prices for their properties, in the existing slowing down Perth property market environment.

e. Actual house/land prices may actually not be as high as what we have been told by the other professionals. It is best that we do our own independant research and collect the field data and used them accordingly when required.

10. For your kind update and further comments/discussion, please.

11. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[handyandy]

Dear All,

1. Does anyone has any idea why is happening to the Stage 2 Release of the Townhouse on the Anchorage?

2. It seems that Australand has officially withdrawn all the Stage 2 townhouses for sale, off the plan, from the market together with all its marketing signboards outside the Anchorage Estate?

3. Some of the Stage 1 townhouses at the lakefront seem to be progressing well. It looks like that they are going to be completed at the end of this year.

4. For your kind update, please.

5. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

Just happen to flick into this post and saw the question re Australand.

From an inside source it is a moudus operandi that if the market is softening to withdraw properties from sale and not to discount sales. In this way they maintain their market and no doubt their financing values as per gross realisation.

They did the same thing in Sydney where there are now many units owned by Austaland that have been empty for some time and aren't on the market.

Cheers