Are we at the bottom of the cycle?

[The_Bludger]

Yes, we all know there are markets within markets, etc, etc, etc.

But generally speaking, in regards to residential property in major city's and surrounding "burbs", do you think we are at the bottom of the cycle or have we got a bit more to go(or perhaps a lot to go)? It's certainly slowed down here in Melbourne and from my own research, all over Oz.

I think this year will slow down a bit more with the Spring season kicking in. There will be many more props on the market, plus all those that haven't sold, resulting in less demand meaning smaller prices paid.

What are your thoughts? Have we bottomed out yet?

 

[Bigtone]

I think ANZ's property outlook released this week on their website is pretty interesting. see attachment.

They have been fairly bullish on property mostly due to the housing shortage they predict.

Gives a good summary on the capital cities as well.

Don't agree with all of it but much better than some of the crap "reported" in the papers for headline purposes only.

 

[hobo-jo]

Do you mean the top of the market??

http://www.htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-in-Review-August-2010.pdf

HTW month in review, page 41 shows most markets at the peak

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

For the market I invest in, I think we are still at or around the peak, and are likely to see a period of stagnation. Despite the shortage, I think there are a number of sub-markets that are overpriced, and time is needed for the rest of the economic world to catch up.

I don't think we'll be getting a big crash any time soon, but equally I think we are at or around the end of the huge run up in prices we've seen over the past few years.

 

[Jamie M]

Things seemed to have slowed down in Canberra and a couple of REA's I've spoken with have reported a dip in sale prices.

At the last two auctions I attended, both properties were passed in without a bid (and the starting bids were very reasonable).

For those that do invest in Canberra, their might be some good buys over the coming months.

Jamie

 

[cadence]

I hope we are ... coz it means the only way to go now is up!

 

[BV]

IMO we're not at the bottom.

If anything we're at the top so there will be a period of low growth or stagnation and in some markets even price correction.

However, I do believe that this is not the time to stop buying.
Good deals come up all the time but more so during quiet times

 

[artlez]

Probably right now isn't the best time to buy but I think as more bad publicity comes through with bursting bubbles, interest rates etc, then we'll start to see some more bargains on the market (that, or more leeway to negotiate)

 

[RumpledElf]

Market slows down.
If (pessimist | realist) we're at the top!
If (optimist) we're at the bottom!

 

[devo76]

I think that last little leg up in prices was a bit of a false start. Sydney for example ( if you take the last year out of the equation) is still bumping along. The last bit of growth has delayed any long term recovery. So yeah still at 6 o clock I think. Maybe 5 or 3 after the last spurt in values.

 

[BV]

So yeah still at 6 o clock I think. Maybe 5 or 3 after the last spurt in values.

Hi Devo

It depends on what market you're looking at.
IMO many properties are currently very expensive while others are still affordable.

Ofcourse a property which seems expensive in my eyes doesn't mean that everyone can't afford it. It only means that I can't afford it so I'll either have to wait and miss out or I'll have to look in a cheaper suburb

 

[devo76]

Although price growth would be nice. Soft or falling prices in my situation(great cashflow,steady income,a lot more borrowing capacity) would be good. I want to buy a few more before things move north again

 

[Dazz]

in regards to residential property in major city's and surrounding "burbs", do you think we are at the bottom of the cycle or have we got a bit more to go(or perhaps a lot to go)? It's certainly slowed down here in Melbourne and from my own research, all over Oz.

What are your thoughts? Have we bottomed out yet?

Yeah, I agree with you.

Melbourne has definitely bottomed out. It's been a real downer, but fear not, I can feel it in my bones. Melbourne is due for a really big growth spurt for sure.

 

[BayView]

I don't think we have seen the bottom yet.

The truth will come out (in Melbourne) when the Spring selling "season" commences.

If you see a drop in properties for sale, and an even bigger drop in buyers swanning around in Nov/Dec, then the bottom is nigh.

The other thing to watch over SEpt/Oct will be the interest rates.

If they go up, you can almost bet the "season" will be a fizzer.

Oh yeah; of Labor wins.....

 

[craigb]

For the market I invest in, I think we are still at or around the peak, and are likely to see a period of stagnation. Despite the shortage, I think there are a number of sub-markets that are overpriced, and time is needed for the rest of the economic world to catch up.

I don't think we'll be getting a big crash any time soon, but equally I think we are at or around the end of the huge run up in prices we've seen over the past few years.

I agree , should we start looking for some bargains soon , perhaps the next interest rate rise will be a bit of a green light. for "some" of us that is.

 

[Propertunity]

What are your thoughts? Have we bottomed out yet?

Well I can't answer for Melbourne, but in the areas that we operate - Sydney, NSW Central Coast & Newcastle, and looking at the CG charts attached for the LGAs of each area, I'd say that we are in the first 18 - 20 months of the first part of the upswing in the cycle

 

[BV]

Well I can't answer for Melbourne, but in the areas that we operate - Sydney, NSW Central Coast & Newcastle, and looking at the CG charts attached for the LGAs of each area, I'd say that we are in the first 18 - 20 months of the first part of the upswing in the cycle

Allan

Thanks fo the charts.
IMO if interest rates & construction stay at around their current levels then we will continue to have growth.

Ofcourse not all areas can have growth but affordable suburbs in areas with demand should be moving

 

[Andrew_A]

The Brisbane market is quite slow at the moment. On the weekend I was at four open for inspections and I had no company inspecting three of them.

If anyone is interested I have a just released June quarter report for the Australian market from one on my data providers with plenty of graphs and stats, just PM me.

 

[Ausprop]

This could well be seen as the last decent opportunity to exit before a leg down.... tho not as good as March was.

 

[Ridin-High]

This could well be seen as the last decent opportunity to exit before a leg down.... tho not as good as March was.

I would probably with this to an extent, but just a reminder for people residential property is a long term investment (unless developing etc of course)

More listings on the market and higher interest rates kicking in