Ashburton Melbourne

[willister]

Anyone have any thoughts? We've just sold a IP in Wantirna for around $550K...and looking at getting an IP around the Ashburton area, near the train station.

Want to move a bit closer to the city - thinking of renting it out for a 2 yr period and then move in.

Here are the pros and cons I've come up with:

Ashburton:

Pros:

1. Surrounding subrubs are expensive...Glen Iris, Burwood, Camberwell etc.
2. Excellent, short Alamein line.
3. Seen a few properties close to station (less than 1km) 600m2 blocks for $600K odd.
4. Good distance from CBD - about 12kms.

Cons:

1. A lot of commisioned housing in nearby Ashwood, Jordanville areas.
2. Somewhat dangerous - wasn't there someone who was stabbed in broad daylight a few years back near the station?
3. Had a look around the Ashburton station, kind eery with those big commission houses.

Overall, I think it would be one of the very few places in the inner east worth investing. Not looking for explosive growth but hope one day it'll be another Glen Iris...

 

[The Y-man]

2. Somewhat dangerous - wasn't there someone who was stabbed in broad daylight a few years back near the station?
3. Had a look around the Ashburton station, kind eery with those big commission houses.

2. Can happen anywhere (unfortunately)
3. I don't mind them - most of them are getting updated or knocked down anyway...

The Y-man

 

[Jake Milne]

The prospects for Ashburton are okay. Prices have come back from 2010's peak but they're still inline with the overall 10y trend and future predictions are suggesting growth will be almost double that of the Greater Melbourne Median; not sure how much faith I have in those predictions though.

Ashburton has some ex-commission streets that are now seeing a shift in demographics. Some good buying opportunities here; especially if you have the scope to renovate or develop.

Bare in mind that as an area Ashburton has lagged behind its neighbours and has underperformed when compared to the National Average. I would consider the opportunities within this suburb as speculative.

Finding an off-market property and going in under comparable market value would strongly be advised when investing in this market.

 

[willister]

The prospects for Ashburton are okay. Prices have come back from 2010's peak but they're still inline with the overall 10y trend and future predictions are suggesting growth will be almost double that of the Greater Melbourne Median; not sure how much faith I have in those predictions though.

Ashburton has some ex-commission streets that are now seeing a shift in demographics. Some good buying opportunities here; especially if you have the scope to renovate or develop.

Bare in mind that as an area Ashburton has lagged behind its neighbours and has underperformed when compared to the National Average. I would consider the opportunities within this suburb as speculative.

Finding an off-market property and going in under comparable market value would strongly be advised when investing in this market.

Curious as to why you would think Ashburton is speculative?

Ashburton, West Footscray and Maribrynong are on the radar.

 

[Jake Milne]

To define speculation:
Speculation is when you're making a decision based on incomplete evidence or historic evidence that doesn't support what your intentions are.

I assume your goal is to invest for Capital Growth?
I assume you'd want your property to perform better than average to create wealth?

If these assumptions are correct, assets in Ashburton may be speculative as they're not in an area that has proven to be an outperforming suburb in the past.

Therefore if you intend to benefit from capital growth in Ashburton you're either content with historic growth below the national average to reach your end goal; or you're relying on future speculation, or "what ifs".

Disclaimer: The rule of thumb that a suburb's history shows us does not mean that all assets within that area will perform at the same rate.

Some property will out perform, whilst others will not. If you're confident with your research, have numbers and evidence to support your decision, are able to buy well you're increasing your likely hood of success and are INVESTING rather than speculating. The difference is in the details.

 

[westminster]

I like Asburton. I find its proximity to good schools, fantastic train line, High St shops, Chadstone, warrigal rd shops all very handy.

 

[Jake Milne]

I like Asburton. I find its proximity to good schools, fantastic train line, High St shops, Chadstone, warrigal rd shops all very handy.

Liking an area or having an emotional attachment to an area is arbitrary.

If you want to maximise your chances for CG and minimise your risk, invest in areas that have the best historic results.

If you're basing your decision on where you want to live in two years then you'll have to think hard about which is more important - return on investment vs. lifestyle.

 

[tobe]

Ive lived and worked in the area for the past 10 years.

During that time, it has always been outperformed by the neighbouring suburbs. Why is this going to change into the future?

that said, its a lovely spot, lots of parks, bike paths, train station, close to freeway, local shopping strip. Investment wise, negatively gearing a house? counting on capital growth? It will have some, but not more than another similar area.

Buying an ex commission to knock down later? Good strategy.
buying ex commission to sell to an O/O later who wants to build? not sure, there are lots available, theres no scarcity factor to drive the price.

 

[willister]

Ive lived and worked in the area for the past 10 years.

During that time, it has always been outperformed by the neighbouring suburbs. Why is this going to change into the future?

that said, its a lovely spot, lots of parks, bike paths, train station, close to freeway, local shopping strip. Investment wise, negatively gearing a house? counting on capital growth? It will have some, but not more than another similar area.

Buying an ex commission to knock down later? Good strategy.
buying ex commission to sell to an O/O later who wants to build? not sure, there are lots available, theres no scarcity factor to drive the price.

I never quite understood why surrounding suburbs are so overpriced when Ashburton - you can still get a 600m2 block for $620K odd and less than 1km from the station.

Does the commissioned housing bog it down THAT much? I can't see in terms of amenities anything that is inferior to say a Glen Iris or Camberwell.

I'm mainly looking for a IP that will bring average returns (capital growth) and decent tenants that. Still undecided as to moving in anytime soon, but probably will down the track.

 

[westminster]

Liking an area or having an emotional attachment to an area is arbitrary.

If you want to maximise your chances for CG and minimise your risk, invest in areas that have the best historic results.

If you're basing your decision on where you want to live in two years then you'll have to think hard about which is more important - return on investment vs. lifestyle.

Yes it is arbitrary but the OP asked for thoughts so I stated mine.

I personally like the area.

In terms of investment I think the area could do well as people get priced out of surrounding suburbs. In particular I think the part of Ashburton which borders Glen Iris and is north of high st is the better side. Added bonus you get a different train station.

Downside which might impact is the zoning for schooling. It is zoned ok for primary school but the govt high school is less than desirable. I believe locals send their kids to that high school if they must but will try and get an out of Zone to Camberwell or go private.

 

[tobe]

I never quite understood why surrounding suburbs are so overpriced when Ashburton - you can still get a 600m2 block for $620K odd and less than 1km from the station.

Does the commissioned housing bog it down THAT much? I can't see in terms of amenities anything that is inferior to say a Glen Iris or Camberwell.

I'm mainly looking for a IP that will bring average returns (capital growth) and decent tenants that. Still undecided as to moving in anytime soon, but probably will down the track.

the 'surrounding' suburbs were only rezoned about 10 15 years ago. before that, ashburton was surrounded by ashwood, chadstone, burwood east and east malvern.

now its ashwood, chadstone (which has seen a fair bit of gentrification) glen iris (remaned after boundary change), and east malvern.

Note also the physical barriers to ashburton. Toorak rd, the old divide between glen iris and burwood east still divides prices, although there is a fair bit of leakage in the old east burwood now. this leakage hasnt crossed high st into ashburton. Warrigal rd, the busy road chadstone shopping centre is off, demarcates the boundary to ashwood. While ashburton is on the 'right' or city side of warrigal rd, housing stock is similar to ashwood. potential buyers might not be that impressed that crossing the road denotes a few 100 10000s more in price.
the monash freeway and east malvern train station and parkland and creek seperate ashburton from east malvern. Obviously houses close to the boundary are effected by noise (from both) and therefore lower priced. This leaves a wide boundary, Id estimate half a km of properties between east malvern and ashburton. Too wide a mark for people priced out of east malvern to consider ashburton.
lastly school zoning. ashburton isnt zoned for camberwell or balwyn high. its a fairly short commute to some private schools, but it isnt in 'the zone' that affects some other south eastern suburbs.

ashburton may yet be 'discovered', these are just my musings on the ground as to why it hasnt been yet. the ripple effect isnt relevant when the geography and housing stock changes so dramatically between one suburb and another.

 

[willister]

Looking back at this thread, I should have purchased in Ashburton lol back in 2010! I think if I recall correctly, there was an old 600m2 or 700m2 block asking for mid 600s to 700K back then or so on Wewak Street? I reckon it could easily be $1.1mil now.

Is it just me or do I still rate this part of Melbourne much better to live in than some higher rate areas? Just some of my reasoning (based on Wewak Street):

1. Possibly one of the best accessed areas in Melbourne from the CBD - 2 train lines (Alamein and Glen Waverley), Glen Iris Tram then Bus (from Glen Iris Station), Vermont South Tram (get off at Lithgow Street then catch the Train back to Alamein) or even by bike (Gardiners Creek Track then Yarra Track).

2. Very nice patch of Greenery around the Gardiners Creek Trail & Excellent Bike Path.

3. Right next to Chadstone Shopping Centre and a decent shopping strip/cafes near Alamein Station.

4. Close enough to CBD (12-15kms) but also not too close that land sizes are compromised.

5. Deakin/Monash Unis pretty close by.

The only real negative I see here is the somewhat lack of schools surrounding - only real option is Ashwood Secondary. There was previously a very

IMHO I reckon it could possibly squeeze more price increase but not much. Not sure if one day if the government will ever link Alamein to either East Malvern or Holmesglen and if Ashwood would turn into another "popular school" - that would surely boost prices but too far fetched I reckon for either of those to happen.

I was really surprised why people looked Ashburton in 2010 considering it is inner east and surrounded by at the time very expensive suburbs compared to Ashburton itself!

 

[tobe]

the bikes paths are pretty awesome. I can go into the city in about 20 to 30 minutes, without crossing a single road, no stop lights, no interactions with traffic, on the Gardeners creek path. On the anniversary trail its all off road but there are a couple of roads to cross. I can be in northcote in 20 or 30 minutes.
This is comparable to driving, especially in peak hour.
In terms of schools, our two either get the train or use the bike path to get to camberwell high a couple of train stations away.

Be interested to know if ashburton has outperformed its neighbors over the last couple of years?

 

[willister]

the bikes paths are pretty awesome. I can go into the city in about 20 to 30 minutes, without crossing a single road, no stop lights, no interactions with traffic, on the Gardeners creek path. On the anniversary trail its all off road but there are a couple of roads to cross. I can be in northcote in 20 or 30 minutes.
This is comparable to driving, especially in peak hour.
In terms of schools, our two either get the train or use the bike path to get to camberwell high a couple of train stations away.

Be interested to know if ashburton has outperformed its neighbors over the last couple of years?

Read a recent article on theage.com.au
(http://news.domain.com.au/domain/re...s-fastestgrowing-suburbs-20150501-1mw34i.html)

Apparently 25% increase year on year, the surrounding suburbs don't appear to be in top 10 so Id say Ashburton has outperformed (besides it was number 1 last year I think) and closing the gap on Glen Iris/Camberwell et. al.

Sounds like it is literally a very good place to live from your experience! I had forgotten about Camberwell High! (from what I heard quickly becoming the next McKinnon/Balwyn High/Glen Waverley High). Strangely enough a suburb like Murrumbeena whilst only a rocks throw away is literally very different from Ashburton (I think Ashburton I actually a few kms further from the CBD), but Murrumbeena/Carnegie feels more like Clayton than anything...I have also no idea why Glen Iris is so highly regarded, it looks less green than Ashburton.

Once rode on that Gardiners Creek Trail - absolutely loved it! Your one lucky bloke living in Ashburton! I can only dream/think what if!

 

[littletee]

That's why you always DYOR and back yourself in......if they were "experts" they wouldnt be on here chasing clients.

 

[dan_89]

That's why you always DYOR and back yourself in......if they were "experts" they wouldnt be on here chasing clients.

Looks like I may have to get the popcorn out... haha!