This whole issue is not so relevant to Australia, at least not from a government debt position and not yet, unless government debt continues to rise rapidly.
Aussie Dollar vs US dollar
- Thread starter EstatePreneur
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This whole issue is not so relevant to Australia, at least not from a government debt position and not yet, unless government debt continues to rise rapidly.
Sunfish is spot on with this comment, apart from the carry trade which is one factor, the AU$ is tied to the commodity trade especially for hedge funds looking for exposure. The Looney is the other favoured currency for similar reasons. (note i agree with Sunfishes logic, i dont post a comment with regards to the future direction of the AU$, im not a trader and dont spend my time researching such stuff)
i emphasise this comment again for anyone with equity exposure at the moment.
Let's just hope they're not suffering from premature congratulation!
GP
Given this comment was in May and equity markets have moved significantly upwards from this point, i again emphasise in the short term the market is a voting machine, over longer periods its a weighing machine (essentially earnings growth).
Instead of focusing on where the markets are priced as a whole, if you are an investor you should be focusing on the market price of the companies you are invested in against your perceived estimate of their intrinsic value.
If you dont have a rough idea where their intrinsic value is, then either maintain an balanced portfolio between equities and cash that is rebalanced periodically according to your risk profile, or start learning about the companies you have exposure to.
Listening to the media (which gives you just todays opinions, not the future, remember the media's job is to report about TODAY), or your broker/research analyst is setting you up to be cannon fodder.
rangebound is a godsend for me - i like predictability.
rangebound trading means that everyone is tech-heavy focussed - fundamentals are out the window - and when you see a pattern you trade with it.
fun times.
rangebound trading means that everyone is tech-heavy focussed - fundamentals are out the window - and when you see a pattern you trade with it.
fun times.
Hi all.
90.2 against usd today.
Anyone care to comment on future direction?
Is this due to confidence in Aussie economy - rising interest rates and lower unemployment figures than expected?
Sorry if this makes me sound like a complete dummy
but I'm trying to get my head around what impacts aud values.
I am looking to import from China and am not sure how to understand if the current trend looks set to continue. What should I be watching for, that could influence it up or down?
I'd really appreciate some insight!
90.2 against usd today.
Anyone care to comment on future direction?
Is this due to confidence in Aussie economy - rising interest rates and lower unemployment figures than expected?
Sorry if this makes me sound like a complete dummy
but I'm trying to get my head around what impacts aud values. I am looking to import from China and am not sure how to understand if the current trend looks set to continue. What should I be watching for, that could influence it up or down?
I'd really appreciate some insight!
all of the above.
australia is a stable western democratic country with a wide abundance of resources and a growing young population of high skills and education. we are tied to the growth of the developing world. the remainder of the world is a basket case. does it really surprise how this is unfolding?
australia is a stable western democratic country with a wide abundance of resources and a growing young population of high skills and education. we are tied to the growth of the developing world. the remainder of the world is a basket case. does it really surprise how this is unfolding?
And also the weakness of the USD, it is getting caned across all currencies at the moment...
Hi all.
90.2 against usd today.
Anyone care to comment on future direction?
Is this due to confidence in Aussie economy - rising interest rates and lower unemployment figures than expected?
Sorry if this makes me sound like a complete dummy
I am looking to import from China and am not sure how to understand if the current trend looks set to continue. What should I be watching for, that could influence it up or down?
I'd really appreciate some insight!
that's kinda what happens when you print money double-time.
1 AUD will be about USD 1.12 soon.
... please be patient me, but if the usd is getting slammed, would the Chinese likely put their prices up to compensate?
Their unit prices are all priced in usd currency.
I've never imported before, wow there is so much to learn!
I know that a high aussie dollar hurts exporters here, but at parity or even higher as you suggest is possible / likely Bluey, it should be worth me stalling my import order while longer. Or not???
Happy for my q to be moved if neccessary. Sorry once again, probably not the right subforum for my question/angle.
Their unit prices are all priced in usd currency.
I've never imported before, wow there is so much to learn!
I know that a high aussie dollar hurts exporters here, but at parity or even higher as you suggest is possible / likely Bluey, it should be worth me stalling my import order while longer. Or not???
Happy for my q to be moved if neccessary. Sorry once again, probably not the right subforum for my question/angle.
The Chinese currency is effectively tied to US currency through Chinese monetary policy - a policy they may be reviewing! USD depreciation is not good for China for their large exposure to USD bonds.
However, on the rather large other hand, a weak USD makes Chinese products look even cheaper to all other markets so this is their hedge - what they lose in their USD bonds and the money supply requirements to stay pegged to USD they make up for in exports to other countries as they look very cheap now.
Given the role Chinese goods have played in keeping inflation at bay in Australia over the last 10-20 years, I find it difficult to see where AUD inflation pressure is going to come from when the largest supplier for our "basket of goods" just improved their margins in this market by circa 20%.
Chinese stuff just got a whole lot cheaper... no doubt they will keep some of the margin for themselves but I suspect internal competition will ensure most of it results in cheaper stuff in Australian shops for awhile to come.
Amero
The conspiracy theorist see a North American alliance along the lines of Europe, with a single currency, the 'amero' and no borders between Canada, US and Mexico. (they draw similar lines for Asia and Africa).
I used to discount these sort of things but if the D and G people are right about the state of the US, then a significantly collapsed dollar might be an opening to this sort of scenario. (I suppose if the keep the current flag all will be well with the happy hand clappers there so it would be possible).
This of course underlines even more strongly that our future is tied to this region and China especially. Considering the number of mansions being purchased in Toorak by Chinese investors those conspiricists may have something lol.
(p.s to be entertained, alarmed, or amused see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dmPchuXIXQ
and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT-2fenmLnc
The conspiracy theorist see a North American alliance along the lines of Europe, with a single currency, the 'amero' and no borders between Canada, US and Mexico. (they draw similar lines for Asia and Africa).
I used to discount these sort of things but if the D and G people are right about the state of the US, then a significantly collapsed dollar might be an opening to this sort of scenario. (I suppose if the keep the current flag all will be well with the happy hand clappers there so it would be possible).
This of course underlines even more strongly that our future is tied to this region and China especially. Considering the number of mansions being purchased in Toorak by Chinese investors those conspiricists may have something lol.
(p.s to be entertained, alarmed, or amused see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dmPchuXIXQ
and
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT-2fenmLnc
This is clearly a crackpot theory the thought that the US would open its borders to Mexico is insane, they are trying as hard as they can to seal them up, Mexico has insane amounts of drug cartel problems that it puts the old US crime syndicates to shame.
Perhaps in 20 years if Mexico is actually able to win their war for control of the country and root out the insane amount of corruption that exists from top to bottom in their government then it would not be unrealistic that they might consider such a proposal.
this is a crackpot theory too!!! with the devaluation of the yuan they are hardly going to be rushing in at these inflated prices. I think it is all based on that bloke who said he had sold a third of his stock to people that looked sort of asian (hmm.. or were they maoris??)
i can tell you guys from first hand experience on the ground in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, that pretty much ALL investors in those countries are looking at the AUD at the moment as the "safe currency" to buy.
Almost every businessman/investor I have spoken to in east asia has already bought, or is now buying up, lots of AUD. With the worldwide financial news continually touting australia as the strongest developed economy at the moment - can you blame them?
The story has been the same from everyone.
I dont really know what to think because im not a currency trader.... but i cant see a reason why we wont break above the USD. It might take a little while tho!
silversands - the RMB is still rock steady against the USD at 6.83:1.... so when you get quoted in USD prices, dont worry about it.
I work in the import, distribute and retail game.... the AUD is just making products cheaper for us, and making suppliers more eager to sell to Australia. Its only when the RMB-USD ex.rate moves that you need to worry about your buy prices - however you will see much greater effect from the USD-AUD rate.
.... this comes from 4 years of import buying experience, and in currently in China (Suzhou) right now product sourcing
Almost every businessman/investor I have spoken to in east asia has already bought, or is now buying up, lots of AUD. With the worldwide financial news continually touting australia as the strongest developed economy at the moment - can you blame them?
The story has been the same from everyone.
I dont really know what to think because im not a currency trader.... but i cant see a reason why we wont break above the USD. It might take a little while tho!
silversands - the RMB is still rock steady against the USD at 6.83:1.... so when you get quoted in USD prices, dont worry about it.
I work in the import, distribute and retail game.... the AUD is just making products cheaper for us, and making suppliers more eager to sell to Australia. Its only when the RMB-USD ex.rate moves that you need to worry about your buy prices - however you will see much greater effect from the USD-AUD rate.
.... this comes from 4 years of import buying experience, and in currently in China (Suzhou) right now product sourcing
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