Bendigo vs Horsham vs Corio

[units4me]

Bendigo is a good, progressive town with local industry which should continue to grow. Good lifestyle there also.
Wonthaggi, well that whole region is good for the future esp with the planned multi billion dollar de sal plant. I also think that higher rainfall will make west and central gippsland farmland more and more desirable. Took a drive to Gippsland/Latrobe Valley last week. Was so green, my eyes hurt.

 

[JFisher]

Hi Tiger

I would suggest NOT Horsham. I base this on a solid understanding of the area. My husband has relatives there, he comes from the surrounding area,
his sister and her husband moved from Horsham to Mildura 7 years ago when the river started drying up (and the work with it and he is a carpenter). Horsham is still a town that is small enough to depend heavily on the agriculture that surrounds it while Cities like Bendigo and Geelong have more than one 'driver' to feed them; one being the larger population within them, but also more industrial, manufacturing etc. Bendigo has a large defence force tank builder, has a freeway to Melb, large population, university etc etc. People don't necessarily have to move away to educate and work. Geelong has tourism, universities, and a potential Aussie rules premiership team (lol) not to mention car manufacturing, close to Melb, etc. I am sure there is much more.

My point is, I think larger cities are more self-sustaining or insulated from lean times than smaller towns. Unless the drought breaks I don't think there are any long term growth prospects for Horsham; even the little bit of tourism it gets is due to the fact it is on the highway to Adelaide from Melbourne and is close to the grampians (but Stawell etc are closer). One of my husbands best mates lives in Horsham and is a contract harvester (owns about 5 of them) and travels up and down the east of Australia following the harvests; he to is bailing out of Horsham in the next two years to move up to Qld where there is a 'little' more rain.

I believe the reason you can't find a builder in Horsham is that the majority of them move on to larger areas as only a few are needed to satisfy the demand! We met a new real estate agent earlier this year..guess what..he moved to Mildura from Horsham as (his words!) "town was dying". So I definately wouldn't buy there unless the drought breaks and if it does I don't even know if it will make a difference for at least a few years of good rain. Of course do your due diligence...for all I know Mineral Sands may be opening up another mine in the area and will spur on the next wave of CF+ hopefuls to buy up big.

 

[tiger]

Thanks Daryl.

I had all but ruled Horsham out I think, due to its remoteness really.
Also ruled out Corio even though Geelong obviously has great future prospects, I dont think Corio is the area to be investing in. The rest of Geelong is unfortunately out of our price range for this first purchase.

So what does it come down to?
- Melton
- Pakenham [still don't have alot of info on this one]
- Noble Park/Springvale IF we get lucky to find a house under 200k
- Bendigo
- Mornington Peninsula, eg Mornington or Hastings [still need to research these more for growth potential]

So thats a rather large shortlist I still have there

 

[GordonGekko]

why not corio? just look what happend the frankston north (i live there..) no one wanted to buy here and everyone thinks its a dump full of drug addicts and government housing.... but now prices are skyrocketing....

couldnt it be the same with the nicer part of corio? ... i live in the outskirts of fr.north 300 m from the seaford boundry.... and its just great! 3km to the beach.. 800 m to shops (incl .mcD.) and my naighbour in the front of my house is a nature reserve!

im going to see corio this weekend ... see how bad it is ? my budget is about 180k soo where should i buy? some say bendigo or elizabeth's or cockatoo etc.

 

[tiger]

You wont get in the better parts of Corio with 180k. Thats my dilemma too.
With that budget, Melton just seems more appealing. But I am going to visit both areas, amongst others, next week.
I reckon Corio will improve but from the feedback I've got I have to decide whether I'd want to live there now and I dont think I would. If it was purely for investment then it would be a different story.

Wish I could afford Frankston North but 200k seems to be absolute minimum there now and i really prefer not to go over 190k.

 

[our obsession]

I may have put these up somewhere else ....but heck! will wack'em up again, just for fun:



Frankston: 1994: Median House Price $103,000.............2004: MHP $230,000...........Change: 123%

Frankston North:1994: MHP $68,750.............2004: $170,000.....147%

Pakenham:1994: $96,000.....................2004: $222,825...................132%

Noble Park:1994: $93,000....................2004:$237,250..........155%

Springvale: 1994: $95,000.............................2004: $240,000........153%

Mornington: 1994: $120,000...............2004: $308,000.........157%

Hastings: 1994: $68,000.........................2004: $210,000.........209%

Epping: 1994: $115,000................2004: $250,000.............117%

Sunbury: 1994: $110,000................2004: $240,000...........118%

Mildura: 1994: $95,000...................2004: $184,000.............94%

Murtoa: 1994: $38,550..................2004: $84,000............118%

Stawell:1994: $74,000..................2004: $125,000.............69%

Winchelsea: 1994: $79,000............2004: $166,000.........110%

Wendouree: 1994: $79,250..............2004: $176,056........122%

Terang: 1994: $52,000...................2004: $120,000............131%

Maryborough: 1994: $63,000...........2004: $136,500............117%

Sebastopol: 1994: $75,000.............2004: $173,500............131%

Wyndham Vale: 1994: $87,500.................2004: $195,000...........123%

Yea: 1994: $71,000......................2004: $210,000............196%

Cockatoo: 1994: $88,250...............2004: $215,000...........144%

Colac: 1994: $75,000....................2004: $179,000...........139%

Sorry about that, got a little carried away....one thing I believe: property investing is such a smorgasbord of taste and delicacy(s)....sure to be something for everyone.

 

[GordonGekko]

yes i know tiger , i was just happy to buy my home so close to the beach for a measly' 176k (i got 10k off the price!) ... i really did not care if the prices went up , as i was living there myself and for a cool $210/week .. i mean you have to live somewhere right?

i knew it was only a question of time before Fr.north would rise because of the location. but Corio does have a beach but its full of shell tankers ....

which is a concern , i will visit melton this weekend and post my results , i hope you'll share you experinces of corio too.

enjoy!

GG jr.

 

[our obsession]

Just sharing some interesting reading/links for Horsham, Bendigo, Mildura and Ballarat for those who maybe a little unfamiliar with some of our Victorian regional cities and some of the latest news occurring within them:


- Horsham some interesting info on drought affects:

http://203.89.220.57/upload/Media Release_21Sep07_2040Plan.pdf

- Horsham: 2040 Strategic Plan:

http://www.hrcc.vic.gov.au/main.cfm?CategoryID=0&contentfile=infopage&topicid=36

- Bendigo: Latest Shire news:

http://www.bendigo.vic.gov.au/

- Ballarat: Latest Shire news:

http://www.ballarat.vic.gov.au/

and Mildura's latest Shire news:

http://www.mildura.vic.gov.au/

also a page of something I'm not sure what's going on with it, but has a good Victorian Shire link page:

http://www.aussoft.com/Search/CouncilSearch.asp?State=VIC

 

[bennido]

I had all but ruled Horsham out I think, due to its remoteness really.

Hi Tiger, depending on your strategy, I wouldn't rule out Horsham totally.

If your aim is for -ve gearing and capital growth, then its probably not the best and that pretty much applies to most regional areas as well. I would stick to the Melbourne city area.

But if you follow Steve McKnight's +ve gearing strategy, Horsham is a good candidate. It's a significant regional town with a large population (unlike some tiny towns of a few thousand people). While there is no doubt the drought is affecting the region (and ALL of Victoria really), there is still growth occuring (http://www.wimmera.yourguide.com.au...ss=general&story_id=1056034&category=general).

But more importantly, you can find properties with excellent +ve geared yields compared to places like Bendigo / Melton.

 

[units4me]

Bennido wrote "there is no doubt the drought is affecting the region (and ALL of Victoria really)".

No it's not. Look at Gippsland, much is without water restrictions.

 

[tiger]

I just spent 4 days driving around Vic and I saw no signs of drought.. the grass was as green as green in most places and it rained most of the time. Strange!

I get it all now... Horsham and Gippsland will bring me decent yields but less capital growth than somewhere like Melton. But the houses are so much cheaper out in those small towns... so really the dilemma is do I go for a $180k buy in Melton and have to wait 6-10 months until I have a deposit, or go for a cheap buy in Horsham or Traralgon and buy this year??
Keeping in mind that I need a springboard for future investments, Im getting a feeling that waiting a bit longer for Melton is the way to go.. I just dont want to wait as prices will go up so I'm always playing catch up...

Oh and by the way... I understand Corio now. Ended up there lost on the night we arrived. Lets just say I did not feel comfortable sitting in my car at 10pm on the street with the light on trying to figure out directions.
Definitely give that one a miss

 

[feihong]

I just spent 4 days driving around Vic and I saw no signs of drought.. the grass was as green as green in most places and it rained most of the time. Strange!

I get it all now... Horsham and Gippsland will bring me decent yields but less capital growth than somewhere like Melton. But the houses are so much cheaper out in those small towns... so really the dilemma is do I go for a $180k buy in Melton and have to wait 6-10 months until I have a deposit, or go for a cheap buy in Horsham or Traralgon and buy this year??
Keeping in mind that I need a springboard for future investments, Im getting a feeling that waiting a bit longer for Melton is the way to go.. I just dont want to wait as prices will go up so I'm always playing catch up...

Oh and by the way... I understand Corio now. Ended up there lost on the night we arrived. Lets just say I did not feel comfortable sitting in my car at 10pm on the street with the light on trying to figure out directions.
Definitely give that one a miss

I think if you do a little bit more research to see which specific town has more potential then u might be able to get both yield and CG

 

[tiger]

I've done tons of in depth research so much as going to each and every town to check them out.
Smaller towns pretty much have less potential for CG than somewhere like Melton.

 

[feihong]

yeah, would expect Melton to have a steadier (and higher chance) of CG since it's still in Metro ring. Smaller towns are on their own to bring CG potential to them. Still, places where population growth is almost certain are probably still worth a 2nd look. Have u considered places like Baccus Marsh and Warragul where it could be a future "outer suburb"?

 

[tiger]

Warragul is awesome, I really liked it there.
Thats a possibility too.

I know I will likely get CG in all places, its just a matter of how long it will take.
If i buy an IP in any of these places, I still want/need to buy a PPOR and the longer I wait to do that, the more frustrated i get

Melton will bring quicker CG than a smaller outer town (99% chance of this anyway) and that will mean more equity to play with for my own house and/or a second IP.

 

[feihong]

Oh yeah, one more point, potential/confirmed infrastructure is a likely accelerator of CG, like Deer Park bypass to Melton. Have you assessed the impact of the infrastructure as you shortlist your targets? (esp. identifying benefits where ppl may have failed to see, which brings massive CG)

 

[our obsession]

Tiger:

I just spent 4 days driving around Vic and I saw no signs of drought.. the grass was as green as green in most places and it rained most of the time. Strange!

I know, I know...."what drought?"

It's kinda like we have oat and pasture feed knee high for stock here in the sandy desert at the moment, some of the crops are still lush and beautiful green looking... (farmer 10 k's down the road has dying or dead crops)....almost what people may call a *green drought*....no rain falling around here, apart from showers and only water to come onto the farm this year will be that which fills the house dam.

Toward Swan Hill City some of the crops are fantastic, drive a few K's off the main road, dead as doornail...not even sufficient for turning into hay....Horsham and much of it's surroundings got overall more and heavier rainfall in last couple of months, the majority of crops look good over there....but they must have follow up rain to finish those crops off....we have actually had 8mm of rain here the last month, but either side of the drips and drabs that it fell in we have had quite warm to hot and very gale force like weather....undoing and crippling the crops that any moisture benefit may have done...

Sometimes it looks like something and it isn't....parts of Gippsland got the floods...horrendous damage to their housing and farming...Mildura and the other Murray River water dependent communities may well have the river there, but they are likely to have either no water allocations or severely reduced-upon already reduced water allocations....and these cities are geared toward water dependency, parts of horticulture industry are ripping out fruit trees and vines...we are still very much at a critical time water/drought wise. It can be very deceiving.

 

[tiger]

Oh yeah, one more point, potential/confirmed infrastructure is a likely accelerator of CG, like Deer Park bypass to Melton. Have you assessed the impact of the infrastructure as you shortlist your targets? (esp. identifying benefits where ppl may have failed to see, which brings massive CG)

Yes and thats another plus for Melton. I found it to be quite a long trip out there with the current road arrangements.

Same with Gippsland. It was slow going through Pakenham but I believe the bypass there is due to be completed soon..

 

[bennido]

Warragul is awesome, I really liked it there.
Thats a possibility too.

I know I will likely get CG in all places, its just a matter of how long it will take.
If i buy an IP in any of these places, I still want/need to buy a PPOR and the longer I wait to do that, the more frustrated i get

Melton will bring quicker CG than a smaller outer town (99% chance of this anyway) and that will mean more equity to play with for my own house and/or a second IP.

The problem with Melton / Warragul is that properties you buy will prob be negative geared. And if negative gearing / capital gain is your strategy, there are prob better places to invest.

 

[tiger]

The problem with Melton / Warragul is that properties you buy will prob be negative geared. And if negative gearing / capital gain is your strategy, there are prob better places to invest.

Most properties that anyone buys is negatively geared..... and depending how you look at it, it's not really a problem.