Bill Zhengs passive income strategy (May 2012) - Buy 3, sell 2 to pay down debt

I attended an Investors Direct boardroom seminar last night. It was $45. You may notice on a few other threads I have asked people for feedback on it. I didn't get a huge response so I thought I'd go and update all you guys!

I've always found what Bill has had to say very interesting and this night was no exception. I recommend it to those looking for a strategy to reach a passive income (most investors).

After 11 years of running his mortgage broking business and seeing the financial results of ~6000 clients, Bill said he could noticed a pattern that worked very well for people on regular incomes buying regular properties.

In short, Bill says only a rare few investors who follow the regular buy and hold 5-10 properties over 10-15 years with a view to THEN sell a few, pay down some debt and live off the rents end up getting a decent amount of income in this end game scenario.

He claims that you can get there quicker by selling along the way - 3 steps forward, 2 steps back, so to speak. Average income, average properties.

On face value, it's seems less efficient due to the losses associated with the transaction costs, but apparantly the maths work out better. I haven't seen them but am going in for another session to run my numbers through the model.

  • The strategy uses H&L packages to keep entry transaction costs low (Vic), tax depreciation high and therefore low CF requirement.
  • This is what I've known many developers to do. I had always thought it was strange, but if they are doing it maybe there is something in it?
  • It's something like buy 3 in year 1, sell two in year 4 or something - not confirmed.
  • Maybe net 30-40k from each sale x 10+ (?) times over.
  • The overall concept is that the transaction costs under this strategy is less than the bank interest + any neg CF on holding properties.
  • 70% below states median - 400-450k stuff, 4-5% rents, 6-8% growth.
  • End state of 100k pa passive in 10 years (i.e. 2.5mil unencumbered @ 4% rent = $100k pa).

Obviously there is more to the strategy and those who are interested should go to a session.


Questions to forum
1. Has anyone done this or something similar? Are you achieving your passive income goals?

2. Anyone currently using Investors Direct service to implement this?


[If I have inadvertently posted any intellectual property from Investors Direct and they would like it removed, please contact me and I will do so]
 
He has changed his tune completely which is fine, u need to move with the times.

However he has changed his method of investing to suggests to his clients and co-coincidentally he can now provide these house and land packages that you buy three off and later sell two and then buy another three!

Realistically it appears he has become a developer and just has a clever way of providing buyers for his stock and he gets to charge them a fee as well for the advice, genius really.
 
Natural cynic, did he mention he has contacts who offer wholesale H&L packages for his clients?

3 or 4 years isnt really enough to see much capital growth in outlying areas that H&L packages are sold in. It may work at some points in the cycle, but I would be wary extrapolating 8 -9 % growth....
 
Yes - he has hinted that the best way to is access via group deals and get wholesale prices on the builds, i.e. building 40 in one group buy before land titling stage, that type of thing. At the seminar he did not mention that ID can provide these although another poster on here has talked about an offering from them. He did mention that there is no reason why 5 of us (for example) could walk into a land sales office and see if we could get 10% off each build on say 15-20. He also mentioned many hints and tips of getting better deals from the builders. I don't feel like he is being suss or dodgy on the whole thing myself, however I would recommend anyone going this route full commission disclosure on paper. It's OK for people to make money as long as it's all disclosed and reasonable.

Personally, I'm interested in the strategy first and foremost.

If it can only work with new builds then it would be pretty easy to compare ID's H&L offerings against going into a land sales office myself and talking with the builders. If it's significantly cheaper on the best price I could negotiate, even with commissions I'd still be happy.

But yes - very clever. This is John Fitzgeralds / Custodian Wealth builders model too. It still may work well though.
 
OK so best case defined in this example you net $40k per property buying and selling with this strategy. Sounds plausible. In order to achieve $2.5m unencumbered in 10 years, assuming you are using your normal income to live off, you need to buy and sell 62.5 properties (let's call it 60) over 10 years ($2.5m/$40k) effectively buying, building and selling 6 properties per year for 10 years.

Taking all the development risk each time, all the market exposure while you wait for the properties to get built, construction finance issues, building inspections, progress payments etc etc.

Hardly a passive investment strategy is it? More like a hard core development strategy in fringe suburbs with all the risks entailed with that. Could very easily turn into a nightmare and would have done if it was attempted through the GFC.

And at the end you get to enjoy a pretty low return on your very hard earned $2.5m for ever after. Amen.

Sounds like a very big job to me. For which you already need a job to be able to participate and get the finance. I already have one of those and don't want another one at the same time. Prefer to spend my weekends with my kids...

But no doubt I'm probably missing something???
 
OK so best case defined in this example you net $40k per property buying and selling with this strategy. Sounds plausible. In order to achieve $2.5m unencumbered in 10 years, assuming you are using your normal income to live off, you need to buy and sell 62.5 properties (let's call it 60) over 10 years ($2.5m/$40k) effectively buying, building and selling 6 properties per year for 10 years.

...

But no doubt I'm probably missing something???

It should be less selling - don't forget a large portion ($750k+, haven't done the maths) of the asset value at the end would have come from CG (assuming 8%), not from selling.
 
Hardly a passive investment strategy is it? More like a hard core development strategy in fringe suburbs with all the risks entailed with that. Could very easily turn into a nightmare and would have done if it was attempted through the GFC.

Agreed - it's not passive.

Although on your second point, my outer burb H&L package (Narre Warren) did very well during the GFC. Pretty much 7-9% year in, year out. These '70%' of the median type properties usually have low volatility and no years of negative growth. No years of stellar growth either though, but good cashflows along the way.
 
"6-8% growth"

Could be a fly in the ointment?

Not sure what you mean.

Obviously this is averaged out and not consistent every year. Although I believe properties in this price range are more consistent with their growth compared to regionals and above median inner burbs.
 
I should have added "in Perth".

Areas like this in Mandurah, Rockingham, Armadale, etc etc got smashed in the GFC and anyone attempting this there at the time would still be licking their wounds in a fairly big way...

Let's call it "buy 50 properties in 10 years, sell 44".
 
You do 5 transactions and end up with 1 property in a year?! No thanks :)

Is this based on getting a discount by buying three props all at once?
 
I should have added "in Perth".

Areas like this in Mandurah, Rockingham, Armadale, etc etc got smashed in the GFC and anyone attempting this there at the time would still be licking their wounds in a fairly big way...

I wonder what happened there?

I am going to see if I can combine this strategy with Ryder's 'budget hotspots' and other data like the DSR from Redwerks and buy established. Entry costs higher, but better odds of short term gains in areas I would not want to keep long term anyway.

Let's call it "buy 50 properties in 10 years, sell 44".

Yes it will be interesting to see how many sales are required. I thought he put a figure of 10 out there, but surely that is not enough. With compounding working for you in reverse (sale proceeds + positive cashflow paying down debt) it might be less than we think.
 
I am still not sure of the purpose of the "SELL" part of the process.

Surely the only reason you would sell is if the original premise you bought in on has changed (ie. you have changed your mind with regard to the area, your property is causing more problems than it is worth).

If you are selling because of sellings sake it is a quite different concept/premise to the normal buy and hold (not saying there isn't a justification - just cant see it).

From a shares perspective - I see the similarity with a "mechanical" approach - whereby based on various fundamental indicators, you buy and sell stocks at a certain period - normally annually.
 
The purpose of the SELL is to take your profit and pay down debt. The idea is to get the LVR down, CF high and increase your ability to borrow more through higher equity (and perhaps income if it is recognised).
 
IYes it will be interesting to see how many sales are required. I thought he put a figure of 10 out there, but surely that is not enough. With compounding working for you in reverse (sale proceeds + positive cashflow paying down debt) it might be less than we think.

It might be but we are also talking about $2.5m in assets and $100k pa in today's dollars aren't we? So by the time 10 years rolls around both those numbers need to be a lot higher to account for inflation.
 
Not sure what you mean.

Obviously this is averaged out and not consistent every year. Although I believe properties in this price range are more consistent with their growth compared to regionals and above median inner burbs.

A plan in the current climate,(particularly in Vic.) predicated on the growth in housing estates exceeding its average over the last 10 /20/30 years is very optimistic.
 
A plan in the current climate,(particularly in Vic.) predicated on the growth in housing estates exceeding its average over the last 10 /20/30 years is very optimistic.

Do you mind sharing a link to your source?

My two in SE Melb have exceeded 8% since 2002.

But yes, it is a risk. A long flat period with neg CF will stuff things up.

I think 7% is reasonable. Everyone is all doom and gloom now because the last few years have been flat. Wasn't that long ago and things were 20%+.
 
i think it is a strategy that many people stumble into without planning. they may buy a property and then sell fir various reasons and then buy anotherand keep doing this over many years. ive done this. if helps you pay down privste debt quicker and the cgt isn't too bad but when you look back you think 'if only i had kept that one it would be worth xx now'
 
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