BIS Shrapnel-correct 50% of the time

[Ajax]

A post I read recently about forecasting returns a year out reminds me of BIS Shrapnel's figures (Brisbane 36% over the next 3 years, Sydney 24% or thereabouts over the same period etc). BIS Shrapnel then predict a downturn in 2006.

These guys are a joke. These predictions were a rejig of their previous prediction of a property downturn. Weren't these the same forecasters who predicted a downturn after the Olympics and earlier doom and gloom that did not eventuate in the mid 90's?

Dr. Mellor-how can you say a downturn in 2006 with such precision-do you have supernatural powers?

Ajax

 

[BV]

who can predict the future in a market that's
continuously changing?

If you think about it though, with a lot of media coverage
people may actualy believe in the predictions,
and that in itself will make some people buy or sell
and steer the market in the direction of the predictions.

Its like the top 100 suburbs reports that
residex sell.

If enough people believe in their report,
purchases in those suburbs will increase
and it will push prices up.

It might not be much, but short term it may create
better performers.

 

[JumJones]

So dont be predictive.

Know the fundamentals driving the price within the location(s) where you are looking to invest in.

Calculate a price based on your magic formula (theres a few theories out there) and stick to it.

Its been mentioned before that property is fairly forgiving in the long run, but I would hate to rely on anybody's prediction on price movements - especially any group that reckons it can predict the price move for every suburb in a capital city. I think each suburb has its own quirks, appeal, good and bad areas, different rental/investment demographics and opportunities.

 

[OPM-addict]

The times

BIS Shrapnel reports are similar to a watch I got in Bali.

They are right only twice a day.



Respect, Peace. Out.

OPM-addict

 

[alpina]

Originally posted by BV
who can predict the future in a market that's
Its like the top 100 suburbs reports that
residex sell.

can someone please tell me what info is contained in this residex report and how much it costs?

thanks,

julie

 

[sanchez]

Julie

Check out www.residex.com.au. From memory, the report contains a bit of a market wrap up, some info on the data, and the top 100 predicted growth suburbs and their past and predicted growth rates for 5 and 8 years, for either units or houses, depending which one you order. I think they cost about $180.

Sanchez

 

[alpina]

thanks sanchez

julie