Boom times return?

turk said:
Still awaiting your chart showing dramatic drop since you prediction in February 2010
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So after dishonesty around the indices to try and claim that prices have risen over the last two years you are going to continue trying to misrepresent my posts. Keep it classy turk :cool:
Dazz said:
Instead of stating....there is a high likely that prices may retract up to 5% over the coming years....people tend to write "massive price crash looming, investors stand to lose everything".
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I don't think I've ever used the term "crash" as an expectation for Australian property, until a few days ago when I suggested we could see it in Melbourne from the recent peak:
http://www.bullionbaron.com/2012/06/chart-guide-to-melbourne-property-crash.html
 
The fact is that Medians have actually risen since you made your prediction.
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A median does not mean house values have risen; it is a useless stat, and I don't why the media keep trotting it out.

A median is the halfway point of a total number of sales of properties, based on price. So, if you have 100 sales, the median is the 50th sale.

Now, if you have 2 sales within that group of 100; two of $250k, and one sale of $500k, the median drops.

If you have one sale of $250k and one sale of $500k, the median rises.

If, for some reason, the FHB's stop buying and the higher end keep buying, but overall the total of houses being sold drops like a lead balloon, the median can still go up.

That happened here in Dromana last year; the majority of properties being sold were development blocks, and a few higher-end good quality holiday houses to those who aren't as affected by current economic issues.

The lower end houses still sold too, but as explained in the above paragraph; it doesn't take much to skew the figures. Hence, we read that our little area went up by 14% last year against the general trend. I reckon it is inaccurate.
 
Dazz said:
Not at all Marc,
A bit of respect for the lesser states wouldn't go astray every now and again though.
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Dazz, there is no disrespect from over here from my experience.

There is the mentality from some that the East is the main bread-winner though, and without mining booms I guess it would be the case...I don't know.

You personally may have had one or two dumb @rses make hurtful comments, but generally the average people over our way are too worried about their own day-to-day to care or even think about you guys.

Perth?....where's that?

Just joking.

We had our honeymoon in Perth, and went back for more punishment for our 10th anniversary. The minister for war is talking about going back for the 20th the year after next....
 
BayView said:
A median does not mean house values have risen; it is a useless stat, and I don't why the media keep trotting it out.

A median is the halfway point of a total number of sales of properties, based on price. So, if you have 100 sales, the median is the 50th sale.
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Most of the indices such as RP Data/Rismark, Residex and ABS use methodologies to measure like against like, so they are not simple medians as you've described. The issue is that turk took two different index series (different sets of numbers) and compared them against each other. He is trying to prove that prices have risen on a national basis over the past couple of years, truly laughable and shows the true nature of his position in these threads e.g. "I will prove hobo-jo wrong no matter what the cost to my integrity". It's a shame because I know he could be a valuable contributor to meaningful discussion...
 
hobo-jo said:
Most of the indices such as RP Data/Rismark, Residex and ABS use methodologies to measure like against like, so they are not simple medians as you've described. The issue is that turk took two different index series (different sets of numbers) and compared them against each other. He is trying to prove that prices have risen on a national basis over the past couple of years, truly laughable and shows the true nature of his position in these threads e.g. "I will prove hobo-jo wrong no matter what the cost to my integrity". It's a shame because I know he could be a valuable contributor to meaningful discussion...
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hobo

Your usual intellectual dishonesty, my point is that I don't consider that Australia hasn't suffered a dramatic fall in house prices.

I have twice posted that I mistakenly did not realise that RP Data had used two different methodologies.

That you can't accept that I made an honest error and willingly admit it says more about your character than mine.

How about showing some intellectual honesty and character and answering the questions posed on this thread that you are studiously avoiding?

http://somersoft.com/forums/showthre...=78802&page=17
 
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So if the largest/sharpest falls in most city wide medians in 40 years is not enough to be considered "dramatic" (in your opinion), what exactly would it take?

That said the corrections playing out in most cities are still ongoing, so IMO you are speaking too soon.

turk said:
I have twice posted that I mistakenly did not realise that RP Data had used two different methodologies.
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The fact that you went looking for data to prove me wrong, rather than already being familiar with the state of property on a national level tells me all that's needed.

2 years on and still we have price fall deniers! lol
 
Dazz said:
Instead of stating....there is a high likely that prices may retract up to 5% over the coming years....people tend to write "massive price crash looming, investors stand to lose everything".
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to be fair, many people only have a 5% deposit in their house.

that would be everything, in this case.
 
I dare suggest that whilst RP data use an hedonic index rather than a median their stats are still skewed by the large price falls of high end property only and low/middle end property has barely been affected!
 
dredfern said:
I dare suggest that whilst RP data use an hedonic index rather than a median their stats are still skewed by the large price falls of high end property only and low/middle end property has barely been affected!
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Yes, fair point.

The disconnect between the luxury and mass markets is even clearer as we go back further in time. In the chart above the three markets are indexed to 100 as at the start of 2011. The cumulative dwelling value declines for the cheapest 20% of suburbs since January 2011 is only 1.8%. Similarly, the middle 60% of suburbs have declined by a relatively benign -2.9%. Yet in the 20% most expensive suburbs, the total loss has been 2.3 times higher at a stonking -6.8%.
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http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...n-house-prices-christopher-joye/2012060154940
 
Ausprop said:
oil and gas becoming more and more prevalent....
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It's always been prevalent and underpinning the economy....

The companies doing all the good work and creating wealth for themselves and the country via the income tax and PRRT just don't jump up and down like pork chops creating a ****storm in the media about it.

They just quietly go about their business in a professional diligent manner.
 
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This was quite an interesting comment....I guess those official Treasury plonkers don't always get it right. Looks like they are woeful at predicting the PRRT revenues.

Let's see how they go with the Mining Tax and Carbon Tax predictions.


Study author Alex Robson, comparing the forecasts and outcomes from the petroleum resource rent tax, found huge differences between official Treasury forecasts and what the PRRT delivered.​
 
I believe BIS use the "dart at a dart board" method for their predictions.

They have been soooooper accurate in previous years.

I believe they predicted something like a 40 to 50% correction across the property market a few years back coming out of the GFC.

Instead of being ahead of the wave, their predictions are made after they've caught a big dumper whilst they're coughing up water and gasping for air.

Nothing new this time around, although having said that, they are probably correct in the direction, just not the magnitude. :D
 
I agree Hotrod.

BIS Shrapnel have been notoriously wrong in the past. Whatever they predict, do the opposite and you'll be onto a winner.

If they are predicting Perth property to rise, then I take that as a very bad omen for all us Perth property owners.
 
I guess you're right hobo. I think what we need to understand is that a lot of these forecasting companies get work because investment banks / other forecasters need to justify their figures when preparing some takeover/DCF document - and BIS Shrapnel is a convenient company to rely on without having to do any other thinking.
 
hobo-jo said:
From what I gather it's what they are paid to do (forecasting):

http://www.bis.com.au/services/services_overview.html

So they may as well close up shop if they stop making preductions.

As HotRod points out, they have a fairly miserable track record, I don't even understand how they are still in business!
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an unfavorable forecast is self defeating...

if someone warns you that you are about to step off a cliff, do you then laugh at them for getting it wrong?
 
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