Booming property market
- Thread starter PEI
- Start date
OK
I give up
Is this 12 weeks thing a private joke, or should I seriously be wishing you all the best after your incident/accident ?
"Fortunately with a bit of surgery and a bit of added metal, 12 weeks and ill be typing with two hands again
and
"I have heard the 12 week story in 97. I missed out on the metal and plastic parts then their day will come though "
If it's private, OK, if it's serious, good luck.
jahn
I give up
Is this 12 weeks thing a private joke, or should I seriously be wishing you all the best after your incident/accident ?
"Fortunately with a bit of surgery and a bit of added metal, 12 weeks and ill be typing with two hands again
and
"I have heard the 12 week story in 97. I missed out on the metal and plastic parts then their day will come though "
If it's private, OK, if it's serious, good luck.
jahn
I would say when they take 4 days to work out how to fit the pieces back together is serious stuff. 6 months of rehab is no fun either
On a positive note it got me into direct investing and onto the forum. Les's way of reading a book or GW's going to a seminar would of been a less painful way to get my act together
bundy
On a positive note it got me into direct investing and onto the forum. Les's way of reading a book or GW's going to a seminar would of been a less painful way to get my act together
bundy
Sorry about that Bundy
They say the path to the future is winding and mysterious. I have been lucky so far. Never did like jig saw puzzles. Had to make way for a couple of crews of Ambos with stretchers on the 'tube' at blue cow a few weeks back. I don't think they will be reading much about IP's too soon.
jahn
They say the path to the future is winding and mysterious. I have been lucky so far. Never did like jig saw puzzles. Had to make way for a couple of crews of Ambos with stretchers on the 'tube' at blue cow a few weeks back. I don't think they will be reading much about IP's too soon.
jahn
Geoffw
Sorry about that.
- Getting back to the thread,
if the property boom busts, then I will be bleeding all over the floor and need the assesment of the public hospital system.
Hopefully it will only be a sprained ankle though. I'm patient.
In my optimistic best thinking, I am conservative and believe that even though there has been a Boom, in general a bust doesn't seem to be on the cards. ( a slow down would be acceptable )
jahn
Sorry about that.
- Getting back to the thread,
if the property boom busts, then I will be bleeding all over the floor and need the assesment of the public hospital system.
Hopefully it will only be a sprained ankle though. I'm patient.
In my optimistic best thinking, I am conservative and believe that even though there has been a Boom, in general a bust doesn't seem to be on the cards. ( a slow down would be acceptable
)jahn
Hi Jahn
The risk is that only small hikes in interest could create chaos for many in the (PPOR) mortgage belt.
John Howard has already said that a relatively small swing could lose seats - not enough to lose govt but enough to make it less comfortable for the new govt.
So I think any real ratcheting up of interest rates will come after the election.
What I think IP investors should be concerned about is matching cash inflows to cash outflows in an environment where oversupply is possible.
That is of course unless you subscribe to the view that investor demand for property will continue to outpace supply.
It could do that too, because some drivers remain very much evident. For example, IMHO many investors have yet to be convinced there is evidence of improved governance by CEOs, or equally, that the entry and management fees (and trailing commissions) of managed funds etc are at all justified.
The risk is that only small hikes in interest could create chaos for many in the (PPOR) mortgage belt.
John Howard has already said that a relatively small swing could lose seats - not enough to lose govt but enough to make it less comfortable for the new govt.
So I think any real ratcheting up of interest rates will come after the election.
What I think IP investors should be concerned about is matching cash inflows to cash outflows in an environment where oversupply is possible.
That is of course unless you subscribe to the view that investor demand for property will continue to outpace supply.
It could do that too, because some drivers remain very much evident. For example, IMHO many investors have yet to be convinced there is evidence of improved governance by CEOs, or equally, that the entry and management fees (and trailing commissions) of managed funds etc are at all justified.
Im sure JH wishes he could control interest rates to better his chances of being elected.
Whilst the govt could let the RBA know what outcome they would like, the decision is made by the RBA board, not the govt.
Pitt St and myself will debate just how much effect what the govt would like to happen has on the outcome
But despite what either of us would say its not as easy as JH puting rate hikes on hold until after the election.
Originally posted by XBenX
Pitt St and myself will debate just how much effect what the govt would like to happen has on the outcome
But despite what either of us would say its not as easy as JH puting rate hikes on hold until after the election.
Wouldn't be like you and I to disagree, would it Ben?
On this, I think we pretty much agree.
Although depending on which side of the bed I got out of, I sometimes take a more conspiratorial viewpoint.
As for Johnnie talking up the closeness of the election?
Well a week is a long time in politics....
but I just think he wants to try and play the underdog, when really the ALP has a snowballs chance in hell of winning.
Originally posted by Jean
Hi XBenX
But you will concede that consultation does occur.
Let history judge.
It is true that the Treasurer's top economic adviser (the Secretary to the Treasury) sits on the RBA Board.
I think it is also safe to say that:
1. The Treasurer has advance warning of what the RBA is doing - particularly if they are planning to either increase or decrease interest rates.
2. The RBA, whilst strictly independent, would never, IMHO, do anything completely off the dial which would make the Treasurers main job (the Budget) an impossible task. I have said as much as this before. Monetary Policy (interest rates) are important, but cannot be used for economic fine tuning - they are a blunt instrument. Fiscal and other policies do this. IMHO, MP is like a slab of concrete on which the economic policy house is built.
3. You don't bite the hand that feeds you. McFarlane has just been re-appointed by the Treasurer for a further 3 years. I don't believe that Costello would have reappointed him unless he was completely happy with how the RBA has conducted itself.
4. At the end of the day, Johnnie holds the "ace" which says "I am the Prime Minister and I can take an interest in any issue which interests me". Johnnie's ace is a trump card. Nothing beats it. So, if interest rates truly became an election issue (and I don't think they are), then Johnnie could easily deal himself into the game. Lets not forget, once upon a time Johnnie was Treasurer too.
MB
Dags
Any economist who says that they can forecast 5 years into the future is (IMHO) pulling your chain.
Reputable economists will qualify their 6 month forecasts and anything beyond that is little more than educated guesswork.
This is something I wrote a couple of weeks back, FYI:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=12035
MB
Any economist who says that they can forecast 5 years into the future is (IMHO) pulling your chain.
Reputable economists will qualify their 6 month forecasts and anything beyond that is little more than educated guesswork.
This is something I wrote a couple of weeks back, FYI:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=12035
MB
Pitt St
I am learning heaps from your posts. Thanks. Also like your logic.
The forecasting bit also reminds me of a quote from someone in the forum a while back, with a reminder that you never see the newspaper headlines, "Psychic wins Lotto"
Jean. I can't keep track of the amount of properties, deals, constructions, etc that the tradesmen I have spoken to in the last 6 weeks, are involved in.
Seems like it is not only normal business, but future prospects, driving the scene.
IMHO, it seems the future superannuation prospects are not reliable enough for most peole and a lot are doing something about it - investing in property. I think its easier to learn about for most, than shares.
jahn
I am learning heaps from your posts. Thanks. Also like your logic.
The forecasting bit also reminds me of a quote from someone in the forum a while back, with a reminder that you never see the newspaper headlines, "Psychic wins Lotto"
Jean. I can't keep track of the amount of properties, deals, constructions, etc that the tradesmen I have spoken to in the last 6 weeks, are involved in.
Seems like it is not only normal business, but future prospects, driving the scene.
IMHO, it seems the future superannuation prospects are not reliable enough for most peole and a lot are doing something about it - investing in property. I think its easier to learn about for most, than shares.
jahn
