Cairns market maybe slightly improving is some areas?
- Thread starter Jenko
- Start date
Cairns has gone up about 5% while some suburbs like Edge Hill went up 15%. So saying my house went up 29% just shows how uneven the market is and proves the point that you really need to know the market well. Also in that same time period my young nephew made nearly $700,000 capital gains in Sydney on his first home purchase. He paid $600,000 so over 100% gain. Though he did spend about 100,000 and a few months hard work on it. Cairns has not out performed anywhere and sits as well as any coastal community with high unemployment. So not bad but no reason for the amount of hype we have been fed.
The hype is not here so much but in the local paper, local real estate and local government reps etc. That gets copied. So when you live here and are exposed to it day after day it does become problematic. It distorts the real picture which is not all that bad, but certainly not as good as some see it. For eg the other day in Cairns Post the headlines screamed about China's 4th wealthiest man landing his private luxury jet in Cairns as part of an investment scouting trip. If you read the entire article you learn it was a refueling stop and he never left the airport. Everyday some hype like this is fed cairns locals. So outsiders may not see the amount of hype we see so may ask why we are so worried about it.
We have just spent 7 years recovering from the hype buying where underlying fundamentals did not support the prices people paid. Cairns cannot afford that to happen again, so we just want it to be kept real. Buyers from interstate can push greenfield development that pushes up local council rates all to provide empty property. We pay for the sewerage, the power, the footpaths with no gain in income. no gain in real employment etc.
The good news is that it does not appear too many have bought into the hype so hopefully growth is at sustainable levels. Still some speculate we will see vacancy rates at 4-5% soon enough so watch that stat.
Meanwhile the "keep it real" brigade have a credible voice with previous mayor Kevin Byrne telling it as it is.
Link to the article where these quotes are from Kevin Bryne was mayor twice for a total 12 years.
http://www.cairnslifemag.com.au/feature-story/kevin-byrne-on-life-family-and-economics/
Investment is very welcome but keep it real We have suffered enough from speculators who then bad mouth the town for not delivering on their bad investment decisions. Cairns has great potential if wise desison
The hype is not here so much but in the local paper, local real estate and local government reps etc. That gets copied. So when you live here and are exposed to it day after day it does become problematic. It distorts the real picture which is not all that bad, but certainly not as good as some see it. For eg the other day in Cairns Post the headlines screamed about China's 4th wealthiest man landing his private luxury jet in Cairns as part of an investment scouting trip. If you read the entire article you learn it was a refueling stop and he never left the airport. Everyday some hype like this is fed cairns locals. So outsiders may not see the amount of hype we see so may ask why we are so worried about it.
We have just spent 7 years recovering from the hype buying where underlying fundamentals did not support the prices people paid. Cairns cannot afford that to happen again, so we just want it to be kept real. Buyers from interstate can push greenfield development that pushes up local council rates all to provide empty property. We pay for the sewerage, the power, the footpaths with no gain in income. no gain in real employment etc.
The good news is that it does not appear too many have bought into the hype so hopefully growth is at sustainable levels. Still some speculate we will see vacancy rates at 4-5% soon enough so watch that stat.
Meanwhile the "keep it real" brigade have a credible voice with previous mayor Kevin Byrne telling it as it is.
Link to the article where these quotes are from Kevin Bryne was mayor twice for a total 12 years.
http://www.cairnslifemag.com.au/feature-story/kevin-byrne-on-life-family-and-economics/
Investment is very welcome but keep it real We have suffered enough from speculators who then bad mouth the town for not delivering on their bad investment decisions. Cairns has great potential if wise desison
Nelly, you are a voice of reason in a sea of hype. I have little doubt that the Cairns Post is in the pocket of REIQ given articles in the paper every week for the past 8 years saying the Cairns property market is about to boom.
Thankfully it's improving and a sensible investor will do well if they do a lot of research and I don't mean just on suburbs. In Cairns you have to do your research down to street level eg there's Mooroobool and there's Mooroobool.
For me, a resident and investor in Cairns I see good signs but I see better signs in SE Qld and regional Victoria.
Thankfully it's improving and a sensible investor will do well if they do a lot of research and I don't mean just on suburbs. In Cairns you have to do your research down to street level eg there's Mooroobool and there's Mooroobool.
For me, a resident and investor in Cairns I see good signs but I see better signs in SE Qld and regional Victoria.
Nelly
The history of the Cairns region and its economy is reasonably well documented and understood, as is the struggle and often skeptical nature of local residents.
However, this thread is about the actual state of the market. From my perspective, almost all of the points you make are economic opinions and historical anecdotes, which do not describe the actual state of the Cairns property market, or the rate at which is changing. In terms of your 'reasoning', my comments are as follows:
1. Few people would suggest that all suburb markets across Cairns are performing evenly.
2. There is nothing to suggest that Cairns has 'outperformed' any other market. Its historical and competitive performance is not relevant to the discussion about the current state of the market.
3. Regarding you observation that Cairns sits 'as well as any other coastal market' with high unemployment, what evidence are you referring to?
4. Whether or not Cairns is better as an investment than other markets is also not relevant to the main point of the thread.
5. Whether the newspaper is full of hype or not is not an accurate measure of the state of the market. Most investors can distinguish between hype, speculation, naysaying, negativity and evidence.
6. The history of Cairns and whether or not it can afford interstate investors is also not relevant to the current state of the market, which is being influenced by a number of other factors, including owner occupiers and relocators.
7. Market movements are not dependent on the voice of the 'keep it real brigade'.
8. The economic perspective of the past mayor of Cairns does not necessarily reflect the state of the current Cairns property market.
This thread is not about economic or local sentiment. My understanding is that these things do not describe the actual state of the market, which is better understood by statistics and evidence directly related to the property market.
My question would be; how can one really describe the state of the Cairns property market unless they are specifically focussed on or currently involved in the property market? From my perspective, and in terms of describing the state of the market, decent properties are going 'under contract' at a great rate - often within the first week or before even being advertised, with multiple offers, and at or above asking price. This is happening regardless of local and economic sentiment, and regardless of the future of Cairns.
Nobody can predict the future of a particular market. However, in terms of judging the actual state of the market, I recommend forumites do their own research. Have a look at what the research tells you rather than taking someone's word for it. Check out the statistics. Take a look at the proportion of properties on the market in relation to those that are 'under contract'. Compare the figures with other markets. Talk to local real estate agents, attend some inspections and auctions. Get some valuations. Above all, base your decisions on research and evidence.
Jen
Okay Jen whatever you say Houses will be worth 2 million and the people that live in them earning $30,000 a year will have no problem paying the rent because the economy and the property market are not related. They will still be able to pay the massive electricity bill as well . Amazing. I look forward to this world.
Happened before, Sydney buyers came cashed up because THEIR economy was good and we ended up with massive over supply that has taken us 7 years to over come so lets do that again Jen. Works so well for real estate commission, just those that buy get burnt. But who gives a stuff about them.
Nelly
Are you forecasting the future???
Regardless of what has happened before, nobody is suggesting we 'do that again'. Remember, nobody is suggesting that everyone run out and buy in Cairns. Are you assuming that investors can't do their own research?
Jen
I think investors have done great research as the hype has not really worked. I said as much.
Not sure why you are the boss of who can say what on this forum Do you own it?
FACT: Property market is warmish, not hot.
FACT: property is moving faster than before but houses were for sale for over a year so improved does not mean great. Units were empty for years and years.
FACT: Vacancy rates are increasing with increased building so demand for rental property is not driving it so beware you may end up with an empty property. Jen may think the local economy means nothing but many property investors may really want tenants for their property.
FACT: property is booming in major cities so all areas will get some trickle down when people see how cheap it is in the regions. Cairns has nothing different going for it.
FACT: Cairns is not on the national and international radar yet but when it is people need to take into account higher costs related with ownership in Cairns.
FACT: Many infrastructure projects touted are not happening Cairns in 99% talk and 1% action.
Nothing has happened all this time Cairns has been hyped as hot hot hot. It has been warmish, warmish,warmish FACT.
FACT: HYPE is epidemic in Cairns so please take care when reading reports as most are garbage. the level of hype is 10 times higher than anywhere else, easy.
Cairns is okay but as I tried to explain the hype is way overdone but as I also explained people do not seem to fall for it anymore as we do not have interstate or international interest in property. Only us stupid locals buying.
I will not bother here again, way better ways to waste time than rubbish forusm where facts are so inconvenient.
FACT: property is moving faster than before but houses were for sale for over a year so improved does not mean great. Units were empty for years and years.
FACT: Vacancy rates are increasing with increased building so demand for rental property is not driving it so beware you may end up with an empty property. Jen may think the local economy means nothing but many property investors may really want tenants for their property.
FACT: property is booming in major cities so all areas will get some trickle down when people see how cheap it is in the regions. Cairns has nothing different going for it.
FACT: Cairns is not on the national and international radar yet but when it is people need to take into account higher costs related with ownership in Cairns.
FACT: Many infrastructure projects touted are not happening Cairns in 99% talk and 1% action.
Nothing has happened all this time Cairns has been hyped as hot hot hot. It has been warmish, warmish,warmish FACT.
FACT: HYPE is epidemic in Cairns so please take care when reading reports as most are garbage. the level of hype is 10 times higher than anywhere else, easy.
Cairns is okay but as I tried to explain the hype is way overdone but as I also explained people do not seem to fall for it anymore as we do not have interstate or international interest in property. Only us stupid locals buying.
I will not bother here again, way better ways to waste time than rubbish forusm where facts are so inconvenient.
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You don't support any of these 'FACTS' with evidence about the state of the Cairns market?
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Everyone is entitled to express an opinion. However, insisting that your opinions and assertions are 'FACTS' about the Cairns property market, goes way beyond that.
Nelly, you have stated your opinion and made your position on Cairns and Aquis more than clear, as seen here:
This comment resembles the political stance adopted by these Cairns groups, as you would no doubt be aware:
http://aquisaware.org
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Yorkeys-Knob-Residents-Association.
We can keep discussing the historical economic and political context of Cairns, but it's a bit of a leap to use these things to describe the current state of the Cairns market. I would recommend forumites look at detailed research on the property market, and draw their own conclusions. This is an extract from the June Quarter 2014 Queensland Market Monitor, available via REIQ.
Had a relo buy 2 in Cairns 3 years ago and shun Syd Melb. Kicking himself but he never admits it
3 years ago? No surprises there!
The reality is that those currently buying in Cairns are re-locating to the area for lifestyle, have taken the advice of qualified financial advisors recommending the area, or have made up their own minds to invest in regional areas that suit their personal goals and strategy. Advocating a 'one size fits all' approach is hardly in the interests of individual investors. Nor is it relevant to a discussion on the state of the Cairns market.
Where's your evidence for your assertions in your first sentence?
Hey Guys, just after peoples opinions on the livability of Holloways Beach, have this area on my shortlist as well as trinity park and trinity beach but seem to get a lot more house for your money at holloways, im trying to avoid areas with housing commision and general lower socioeconomic types. Thanking you in advance
Can't really comment on the livability of Holloways as I have never lived there but my main concern would be the aircraft noise as the suburb is quite close to the airport.
However, I can comment on the livability of Trinity Park as that's where I live. I am a touch biased but I love the area but it depends what your priorities are.
We love that we're close to the beach and boat ramp, the community feel is great and there's a lot of newer housing stock and very little of the lower socioeconomic areas, not far from Smithfield shopping centre, lots of good walking and bike tracks (I have a bit of a love/hate relationship with Earl Hill), schools close by and there is still aircraft noise but for the most part it's mainly just background noise. I like that it's not touristy and pretty much all residential so feels a lot more 'homey'. Trinity Beach is pretty much the same. A bit of an older suburb but has the same feel about it.
As for negatives - 'town' is a bit far away (if I'm feeling precious) where it's a 20sih min drive to the CBD though I'm finding if I'm not conducting business I have very little reason to go there as just about everything I need at Smithfield. Hmmm.... I'm having trouble thinking of anything else. Like I said, I'm a tad biased!
Happy for you to give me a buzz if you want to have a chat to someone on the ground.
No worries. There's a few H&L packages out there and what there is seems to be snapped up quickly. Most of them appear to be small blocks with the end price being mid to high $400's for avg spec and then well over $500k for higher spec. But if you spent that $500k on an existing (but still newish) house you'd get a bit more bang for your buck and a bit more land content. So one thing to consider is the end val of the build and how it would compare to established properties.
Some of Trinity Park is in the red flood zone see map and I'm in the red zone backing onto tidal mangroves but the last cyclone that passed where we were issued with a evacuation order it barely raised the water level whereas the one before that headed to Townsville the storm surge was helped by a king tide and the water level was quite high but still not close to flooding. <-- Has reminded me of another negative - the insurance premiums aren't all that cheap. I have difficulty finding a premium under $10k but ended up going with RACQ (who cover all types of flood) for $2,600p/a.
Depending on where you're looking midges could be an issue as there's quite a few waterways and mangrove areas and at sunrise and then from about 4pm onwards they go nuts. My years of living in Melb I lost my tolerance to their bites and when I first moved here I was breaking out in welts and blisters but now I don't react as badly but they're still a PITA.
Sloping blocks aren't the end of the world as they're almost the norm here. So don't let that be a deterrent to you. Build cost is a bit higher but not ridiculously so as sloping blocks are pretty normal here. You can get a lot of blocks that have been benched already but I don't think there's any of those in this area.
If you're looking at Elysian Estate the blocks are big but the ones that are on the hill only have a small building parcel on them. Still, you would have privacy out the back as the land goes up the hill and no rear neighbours. It's a nice leafy area which seems a bit cooler due to all the trees.
Have you got a rough idea of how much you're wanting to spend?
Some of Trinity Park is in the red flood zone see map and I'm in the red zone backing onto tidal mangroves but the last cyclone that passed where we were issued with a evacuation order it barely raised the water level whereas the one before that headed to Townsville the storm surge was helped by a king tide and the water level was quite high but still not close to flooding. <-- Has reminded me of another negative - the insurance premiums aren't all that cheap. I have difficulty finding a premium under $10k but ended up going with RACQ (who cover all types of flood) for $2,600p/a.
Depending on where you're looking midges could be an issue as there's quite a few waterways and mangrove areas and at sunrise and then from about 4pm onwards they go nuts. My years of living in Melb I lost my tolerance to their bites and when I first moved here I was breaking out in welts and blisters but now I don't react as badly but they're still a PITA.
Sloping blocks aren't the end of the world as they're almost the norm here. So don't let that be a deterrent to you. Build cost is a bit higher but not ridiculously so as sloping blocks are pretty normal here. You can get a lot of blocks that have been benched already but I don't think there's any of those in this area.
If you're looking at Elysian Estate the blocks are big but the ones that are on the hill only have a small building parcel on them. Still, you would have privacy out the back as the land goes up the hill and no rear neighbours. It's a nice leafy area which seems a bit cooler due to all the trees.
Have you got a rough idea of how much you're wanting to spend?
