I think that RichardC is still posting,or some are maybe posting under different names..willair..
Capital gains.. from where exactly?
- Thread starter duncan_m
- Start date
Hope the original poster of this thread at least waited til this year to sell his properties in Adelaide, or he would have missed out on a lot of the CG he didn't expect to see any more of...
No, he didn't. AFAIK he sold the lot before the recent growth, then followed his passion......
Well I sure hope Dunc. didn't sell. We've got more oil reserves than ever. Electric cars are under development everywhere etc. Resource projects are driving employment down and wages up. Buyers from Asia are buying our real estate as fast as the auctions are listed. Prices are rising big-time (Melbourne median up 18% this year.) Interest rates are rising but still reasonable. etc We live to fight another day !!
LL
LL
Gees. Bummer. Hope he's having fun !!
... I'm sure glad my passion is property investing !!!!
LL
Good post Duncan. I think people seem to assume things will stay the same forever, but it doesn't.
Although ancient men discovered oil 5000 years ago, it was only 200 years ago that it was put to widespread use, since then, oil is predicted to be entirely gone within the next 100 years.
Although ancient men discovered oil 5000 years ago, it was only 200 years ago that it was put to widespread use, since then, oil is predicted to be entirely gone within the next 100 years.
Oh yeah ? http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911
I recall the first "oil shock" came in the 70's we only had 20 years left then. At least it's now up to 100 years !!
LL
I bought a new Jennings brick and tile house with a stunning 300 degree view midday between Brisbane and Goldcoast 30 years ago as the famly home.
Easy distance to all amenities. I added the usual pavers, pool, garage,landscaping etc...etc .
Had i achieved a 10% CG each year, the selling price is around $1.2 mill.
My latest offer from local agents.........$500,000.
I should have rented and bought shares.
any theories folks ?
Easy distance to all amenities. I added the usual pavers, pool, garage,landscaping etc...etc .
Had i achieved a 10% CG each year, the selling price is around $1.2 mill.
My latest offer from local agents.........$500,000.
I should have rented and bought shares.
any theories folks ?
that is the answer right there. don't buy or build in new estates if you want decent growth, it is not when u bought but what and where, if you bought something older closer to brisbane for the price you paid you would be a lot higher than $500k
You breaka da rules, you paya da price mate !
Well I can't speak for anybody else but you broke just about all my basic rules for property investing. 1. Only buy where ALL the land is used up. 2. NEVER buy new. 3. See rule 2 again. 4. Buy close to, but not right next to established facilities. 5. Buy near train lines/stations because they're a bi--h to move. 6. Buy rundown so you can renovate & add value. etc etc I could go on.
Question. How many books did you read before you bought the Jennings "palace" ? How many books have you read since?
Good luck...hope you're young with plenty of time to learn!
LL
Well I can't speak for anybody else but you broke just about all my basic rules for property investing. 1. Only buy where ALL the land is used up. 2. NEVER buy new. 3. See rule 2 again. 4. Buy close to, but not right next to established facilities. 5. Buy near train lines/stations because they're a bi--h to move. 6. Buy rundown so you can renovate & add value. etc etc I could go on.
Question. How many books did you read before you bought the Jennings "palace" ? How many books have you read since?
Good luck...hope you're young with plenty of time to learn!
LL
If there is one thing i can highlight from this topic thread, its
DONT OVERLAY LONG TERM MACRO ONTO LOCAL INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENTS
This especially applies to property, but it is also relevant to shares.
Time and time again i see people loose money by thinking long term global instead of acknowledging global but acting local.
DONT OVERLAY LONG TERM MACRO ONTO LOCAL INDIVIDUAL INVESTMENTS
This especially applies to property, but it is also relevant to shares.
Time and time again i see people loose money by thinking long term global instead of acknowledging global but acting local.
Hi all,
From Duncan,
From Thommo, or RichardC or whomever...
I am also coming around to see the light on the peak oil topic. The sudden changes due to falling supplies will have far wider implications than many, including myself a couple of years ago, realize. The crueling of the economies of many nations at he same time has to have massive repercussions. All the talk of Hydrogen cars, LNG supplies replacing petrol, electric vehicles etc maybe true given enough time, but the oil shocks coming after the peak are very likely to be too swift for orderly change.
bye
From Duncan,
From Thommo, or RichardC or whomever...
I am also coming around to see the light on the peak oil topic. The sudden changes due to falling supplies will have far wider implications than many, including myself a couple of years ago, realize. The crueling of the economies of many nations at he same time has to have massive repercussions. All the talk of Hydrogen cars, LNG supplies replacing petrol, electric vehicles etc maybe true given enough time, but the oil shocks coming after the peak are very likely to be too swift for orderly change.
bye
I believe horse and carriage as the main means of transport peaked in 1820. About that time, the main worry was "poop" in the streets. If all you "peak oil" worry-warts had been on a forum then you'd have been worried about "poop" stifling the flame of life. Look what's happened in the ensuing 200 years. Trains. Cars. Planes. Space travel. Etc. Would you have forecast that in your forum posts in 1820? I bet not ! You'd have just been worried about the "poop". And so it is now. Look at history. Man invents "stuff". New technologies are "discovered". It's how the place works, is it not?
To sit here and post a "considered concern" for oil ( peak or otherwise) is to fail to observe how mankind progresses. I cannot tell you where we'll be in 100 years, but I'll bet that oil in 100years is about as relevant as horse poop is to us today.
As for property growth in values. England has 919 years of records at 10.2% compound. Australia has 120 years of records at 10.4% compound. This is through mud,blood,crap & flood, wars, high IRs, low IRs, all types of gov'ts etc. What more do you want?
Good luck
LL
To sit here and post a "considered concern" for oil ( peak or otherwise) is to fail to observe how mankind progresses. I cannot tell you where we'll be in 100 years, but I'll bet that oil in 100years is about as relevant as horse poop is to us today.
As for property growth in values. England has 919 years of records at 10.2% compound. Australia has 120 years of records at 10.4% compound. This is through mud,blood,crap & flood, wars, high IRs, low IRs, all types of gov'ts etc. What more do you want?
Good luck
LL
Something I came across recently.
Apparently at least half the oil is left behind in the source rock after a well goes 'dry'.
The oil is actually in the tinny spaces in the rock. Initially there is enough pressure (generally) to move the oil to the well. Ones this 'natural flow ceases they inject water to keep float the oil upwards. Unfortunately the top of each tine space holds part of the oil floating at the top of the space and is literally trapped by the water.
There is a cycle to the recovery of oil with the water injection the last step the giant Ghawar field in Suadi has been utilising the water injection technique and is now delivering many millions barrels of water having passed by the oil now trapped in the source rock.
So if half the oil resource is still trapped and with current technology is not recoverable then LL is right and we may see a way of recovering this resource in the future with 'new' technology.
Somehow, I don't think so. Many things have already been tried over more than 40 years as the oil companies are very reluctant to go develop (if they can find) new fields when old ones still have oil.
Cheers
Apparently at least half the oil is left behind in the source rock after a well goes 'dry'.
The oil is actually in the tinny spaces in the rock. Initially there is enough pressure (generally) to move the oil to the well. Ones this 'natural flow ceases they inject water to keep float the oil upwards. Unfortunately the top of each tine space holds part of the oil floating at the top of the space and is literally trapped by the water.
There is a cycle to the recovery of oil with the water injection the last step the giant Ghawar field in Suadi has been utilising the water injection technique and is now delivering many millions barrels of water
having passed by the oil now trapped in the source rock.So if half the oil resource is still trapped and with current technology is not recoverable then LL is right and we may see a way of recovering this resource in the future with 'new' technology.
Somehow, I don't think so. Many things have already been tried over more than 40 years as the oil companies are very reluctant to go develop (if they can find) new fields when old ones still have oil.
Cheers
This is interesting. We (the voting public) happily accept that the boffins "will find a way" and do so in time to avert a crisis. We believe they will solve the unsolvable such as recovering oil from flooded wells but refuse to allow them to solve the simple problem of dumping nuclear waste.
We TRUST them to work miracles but we DON"T TRUST them to do a little housekeeping. That's a paradox.
You can also look at the other angle,"BP",, sort of stands out in a big way look at the capital value that has been lost over the past month,and as over 40%of their business model is in the US,with mainly UK based investors if the US Government starts to apply their legal system then BP
could well go belly-up,then your talking very serious in the terms of Wall Street Snake Oil Bankers..willair..
BTW ... I hear that BP (and others) could drill closer to shore in much shallower and easier/safer conditions. I further hear the only reason they don't and hence are forced to drill deep-sea wells is ...wait for it ...the septics don't want to SEE the oil-rigs from shore. How about that for a nice bit of delusion?
LL
LL
I personally trust them to do both. A few points - the concept of "peak oil" is just rubbish. They still are not certain even where oil comes from. ( I know, the common myth is dead sea animals, but it's just that, a myth. It's not proven. Some of the biggest recent Russian finds have been made on the basis that oil is a byproduct of the earth's molten core. A bit like lava from a volcano...but different. ) But apart from that the world has HEAPS of oil. It's just not the easy-to-get-stuff where you stick a hole in the ground and it gushes forth, like the BP well is doing. But there's heaps and heaps of oil shales, oil sands, LPG, CNG, we can convert coal to oil ( they did so in WW2) etc etc. they now have microbes that can "make oil". As well as that battery technology is moving at 100mph thanks to the mobile phone ..Now, who would have forseen that ?
Miracles?? ...not really.... just technological progress.
LL
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