catch a falling knife

[kum yin lau]

Hi, for those interested in stock market. There was some discussion on falling knives.

My experience.
BOL 40 cents, 30 cents 22 cents. Made about 30K when I sold around 50 cents.
NBS 26 cents .... 56 cents ....43 cents... 20 cents .... 12 cents ... 7 cents...give up finally bought out at 10 cents I lost > 100K
NTU 42 cents .... 60 cents .... 85 cents Made about 15K
Then 62 cebts... 45 cents.... 29 cents .... gave up now 13 cents
Lost about 40k
ego 3 Cents now 1.3
AYE 20 cents ...18 cents .... 12 cents ....10 cents gave up now 4 cents Didn't sell, on paper lost 11K

Then I looked at one that I'd sold & by a short fuse in my brain, decided to buy [because the price had dropped 100%]

IPR now called NEA bought 50000 shares @3.9 cents Of course, it promptly dropped to 3.5 so I said Bugger here we go again & I bought another batch just so I could 'average' down.

And then it started to look interesting so I bought some more & because it was still 'cheap', I bought some more still.

The end of the story is not yet written but the price went up to 25 cents and closed at 22.5 yesterday.

In just one day, it went 50K

So, moral of the story is to catch the correct knife!

KY

 

[Edmond Dantes]

Lot of miners looking like knifes now. Was thinking on buying NCM a few days ago, decided to wait. Will see what happens in the next few days

 

[china]

I entered 1500 bhp at 30.90 two days ago. I hope that I have not caught a falling knife too soon.

 

[el caballo]

I entered 1500 bhp at 30.90 two days ago. I hope that I have not caught a falling knife too soon.

China,

I suspect you may caught a short-term bottom there. If it breaches 30.90, would you be out, or look to average down at lower prices? In other words, what is your exit plan?

Kum Yin,

Extraordinary set of outcomes listed there .... you had previously detailed some other substantial forex "black swan" trades too as I recall, in a previous post. Actually, I will leave you with a quote from one of you previous posts:

"That's why black swans fascinate me. Also, why I remain a property afficionado. Much more stable & predictable."

Hehe ... you still appear to love catching the knife!

Regards,
Greg

 

[china]

China,

I suspect you may caught a short-term bottom there. If it breaches 30.90, would you be out, or look to average down at lower prices? In other words, what is your exit plan?

I have a feeling that there should be some upside possible in the near future. The 30/90 day MACD seem to be moving in a favourable direction. Although the commodity boom is supposedly over, I do not feel that our biggest company cannot generate further profits in the near future. In the medium term, I would expect new lows.

I hope to make a modest profit 10% or so as an exit strategy. I would not average down simply because I can't afford to catch too many falling knives.

 

[el caballo]

I have a feeling that there should be some upside possible in the near future. The 30/90 day MACD seem to be moving in a favourable direction. Although the commodity boom is supposedly over, I do not feel that our biggest company cannot generate further profits in the near future. In the medium term, I would expect new lows.

I hope to make a modest profit 10% or so as an exit strategy. I would not average down simply because I can't afford to catch too many falling knives.

Thanks China - indeed, a bullish divergence of MACD is present on the daily chart, which is typically indicative of a short term bottom. A 10% bounce is a not an unreasonable expectation.

We will see how it goes.

 

[Aaron Sice]

the iron ore boom was meant to be "over" then quickly eclipsed it previous highs.....unreported.

 

[Jake D]

over the last few weeks, RDM was fluctuating about 10% a day. Still dropping slowly, but day trading the 10% bounce could make some decent dollars.

 

[Aaron_C]

You can't trade based on fundamentals as there is no link between them. It's just a random walk.

 

[china]

You can't trade based on fundamentals as there is no link between them. It's just a random walk.

I make trades based on fundamentals and technical analysis. Fundamentals are useful for picking stocks for a longer term outlook, whereas technical analysis is useful for helping to pick entry/exit points.

 

[pokari]

Nxr

NXR already is blunt so you can't get hurt trying to catch it. Have a look if you please.

 

[onetwothreefour]

Coh

Bought coh @$80 in feb, 30 min later it dropped. It's been dropping ever since.

 

[china]

I am pleased with progress of BHP since I purchased a week ago. May get some more if it goes down again below 31. What are your thoughts?

 

[datto]

China, I think for BHP to go better we need more good economic news out of China lol. You may need to Buy Hold Pray.

I prefer high yield stocks like banks and Telstra atm.

 

[chindonly]

I bought NEA as well at 5c but went out at 13c.

Still a very good profit.

The big jump to 25c is unwarranted and unsustainable in my view.

They have had a significant jump in cash due to the changed business model (monetising of access to our old favourite Nearmap).

It has since been down to 19 / 20c.

 

[John_]

Just signed up with Rivkin trading they give out info on what shares to buy/sell via text.

 

[china]

China, I think for BHP to go better we need more good economic news out of China lol. You may need to Buy Hold Pray.

I prefer high yield stocks like banks and Telstra atm.

I am pretty sure that the China story is not over yet. It still has a fair bit to run in terms of industrialisation and modernisation. Banks and telstra are a bit over-priced right now.

 

[DaveM]

I am pretty sure the china story isnt over yet either, it will go on and on and on without end for the forseeable future.

Oh, you are talking about the country?

 

[china]

Neither, we are talking about fine dining china.

 

[DaveM]

That reminds me, whens is Antique Roadshow on?